Coronavirus

[Carth]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Maybe its bad science.

nah, they're experts, they couldn't be wrong again . . . could they?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Carth

nah, they're experts, they couldn't be wrong again . . . could they?

Looking at the behaviour in Liverpool last night i don't think it matters anymore.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...begin-12103642

[tweetiepooh]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Looking at the behaviour in Liverpool last night i don't think it matters anymore.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...begin-12103642

Which goes to show the problems the government in the UK has (whoever would be in power). Other countries the population do what they are asked, here it's hard enough to get people to do what they are told. (OK here the rules were not present yet but you do wonder if other populations would conform earlier rather than one last fling).

Same as back in Feb/Mar when asked to take care people flocked to tourist spots expecting lockdown which must of created greater infection vector.

[jfman]

Almost 20,000 cases. 2276 days to herd immunity.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Another day, another attempt by Old Boy to insult people with genuine concerns over the virus.

Not a single country in the world - or even an opportunistic leader of the opposition - considers your proposals to have any credibility at all. On any other topic posting your persistently inaccurate predictions, wishful thinking and now verging on insults would be considered petty trolling.

Other countries have made varying degrees success with their response to the virus, treatments are improving and many vaccine candidates are entering the final phases of development.

Old Boy wants to send thousands to their deaths and crush the NHS, ending routine treatments for months to come, to “save the economy”. How’s the Swedish economy coming along?

Fifth richest economy in the world - can’t afford a solution for our citizens. Such a notion is laughable when you see success stories in much poorer countries.

Maybe next summer the virus will not like the heat and I’ll come out from under the stairs then.

Another day, another attempt by Old Boy to insult people with genuine concerns over the virus.

No, just a bit of humour, old chap. Like most people, I do have major concerns over the virus. What you are not grasping is that no matter how many lockdowns and circuit breakers we impose, the virus is still there. You still haven’t told us why another lockdown will have a different outcome to the first.


Not a single country in the world - or even an opportunistic leader of the opposition - considers your proposals to have any credibility at all. On any other topic posting your persistently inaccurate predictions, wishful thinking and now verging on insults would be considered petty trolling.

On the contrary, the herd immunity idea is gaining currency. The problem is the loud voices who are attempting to claim that such a policy indicates an uncaring attitude. It doesn’t. It is an acknowledgement of the nature of the virus, the fact that there is no cure and that if economies are wrecked by ineffective actions like this, economies will be wrecked, people will lose their jobs in the millions and governments will no longer be able to offer public services. More people will die as a result of all this, not less. As for trolling, the words pot and kettle come to mind.

You describe my ‘predictions’ as inaccurate. I call them opinions actually, and as we don’t know the outcome of these ‘predictions’, you are inaccurate in portraying them as inaccurate.

Other countries have made varying degrees success with their response to the virus, treatments are improving and many vaccine candidates are entering the final phases of development.

You are premature in describing these attempts at eliminating the virus as ‘degrees of success’ just as you are premature to judge Britain’s response to date if the measure is the number of cases/numbers of deaths. The time to rank countries in terms of their success is when the virus is eliminated. Your examples of ‘successful’ countries all have one thing in common. All of them have a higher proportion of their population who have not been infected to date and are still in danger of infection. As for the vaccines…well, let’s wait and see. After many decades, there has not been a single vaccine that has been found for coronavirus that is effective and does not have unacceptable side effects. The reduction of 10 years of testing down to less than 12 months spells danger to me. I shan’t be putting that ‘quick fix’ into my body.



Old Boy wants to send thousands to their deaths and crush the NHS, ending routine treatments for months to come, to “save the economy”. How’s the Swedish economy coming along?

As I have pointed out, the deaths will come anyway unless you lock people up forever. I don’t want anyone to die, but what you are failing to acknowledge is the absolute futility of how we are tackling this and the fact that this policy is actually increasing deaths. It is lockdown after lockdown that will simply extend further the inability of the NHS to treat people who have anything but COVID symptoms. I don’t see what similarities there are between the Swedish and the British economies - that is a laughable comparison.



Fifth richest economy in the world - can’t afford a solution for our citizens. Such a notion is laughable when you see success stories in much poorer countries.

Sixth richest, actually. As an economist, you should have known that.

So how many inaccuracies in that one post, jfman? I shan’t bother to count.

---------- Post added at 17:28 ---------- Previous post was at 17:23 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

So do you now acknowledge it's not actually world-class and has therefore impacted the country adversely - economically and health-wise?

---------- Post added at 20:39 ---------- Previous post was at 20:33 ----------


Sadly, there's no other solution than lock-downs whilst we get closer to a vaccine.

Why? Has the virus gone away after the last lockdown? Do you want this to go on forever?

Your faith that a vaccine is just around the corner is remarkable. It would be good if you were right.

---------- Post added at 17:32 ---------- Previous post was at 17:28 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Almost 20,000 cases. 2276 days to herd immunity.

Only if you persist with these lockdowns, which are simply prolonging the agony.

[jfman]

Are you now making it deliberately difficult to quote your posts?

Herd immunity gaining currency? Where?

Hadn’t realised we’d slipped to the sixth richest economy in the world. That’s probably the collapse of the pound post Brexit. We better get working on an economic stimulus like the bold Donald. The old economy isn’t coming back.

Nobody wants to die for it.

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/stat...704594952?s=21

It’s quite interesting what the Government can afford despite spending so much time saying it can’t afford things.

[Sephiroth]

I think on balance that OB has the better of the argument between him and jfman.

His key point is that where have the lockdowns help crush the virus? OB has long acknowledged that the lockdowns are simply a device to narrow the flow of CV patients into hospital and does nothing else.

I'll remind what I said a week or so ago which casts doubt on OB's preference for herd immunity:

1. It's a coronavirus and no vaccine has been found for other CVs (AFAIK);

2. Nothing is known about immunity from CV - rather to the contrary reinfection is known.

3. The vaccine scene has gone rather quiet, which means that it'll be a long time before general release may occur (if at all) and that depends on the amount of immunity granted.

3. Treatments have improved to help restore health.

Maybe the two of them will now converge on me!

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by jfman

Are you now making it deliberately difficult to quote your posts?

Herd immunity gaining currency? Where?

Hadn’t realised we’d slipped to the sixth richest economy in the world. That’s probably the collapse of the pound post Brexit. We better get working on an economic stimulus like the bold Donald. The old economy isn’t coming back.

Nobody wants to die for it.

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/stat...704594952?s=21

It’s quite interesting what the Government can afford despite spending so much time saying it can’t afford things.

Paranoia - i think that's on the symptom list

[jfman]

Lockdown on it’s own can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.

Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.

It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Lockdown on it’s ow That can only be done if n can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.

Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.

It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.

On the highlighted point, it seems to me that the economy is best saved by getting the virus to disappear. That can only be done IF there's nobody available any more on to whom CV can be passed. That needs a number of IFs to converge simultaneously.

But that has to be across the world, not just here unless we are to be cocooned and then there is no return to economic advance.

Doomed, maybe.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

On the highlighted point, it seems to me that the economy is best saved by getting the virus to disappear. That can only be done IF there's nobody available any more on to whom CV can be passed. That needs a number of IFs to converge simultaneously.

But that has to be across the world, not just here unless we are to be cocooned and then there is no return to economic advance.

Doomed, maybe.

You're right that it has to be across the world or else as soon as holidays start countries start importing and exporting it between themselves. In retrospect that looks like madness now to have minimal impact on saving airlines anyway

Originally Posted by jfman

There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.

There is no saving it by constant lockdowns either.
The evidence is already there, loads of job losses and business closures already, with many more predicted to come when the furlough scheme ends in 2.5 weeks.

The NHS should probably be renamed the NCS, (National Covid Service) since thats about all they seem to deal with now, getting treatment for anything else is more & more difficult. I'm supposed to have an eye appointment at my local hospital, cancelled in March, still no new date available. I had a suspected chest infection the other week. I could not even visit the doctor, they just rang me and prescribed antibiotics (in hope I guess).

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Lockdown on it’s own can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.

Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.

It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.

An expensive and in fact ruinous waste of time.

---------- Post added at 18:59 ---------- Previous post was at 18:52 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I think on balance that OB has the better of the argument between him and jfman.

His key point is that where have the lockdowns help crush the virus? OB has long acknowledged that the lockdowns are simply a device to narrow the flow of CV patients into hospital and does nothing else.

I'll remind what I said a week or so ago which casts doubt on OB's preference for herd immunity:

1. It's a coronavirus and no vaccine has been found for other CVs (AFAIK);

2. Nothing is known about immunity from CV - rather to the contrary reinfection is known.

3. The vaccine scene has gone rather quiet, which means that it'll be a long time before general release may occur (if at all) and that depends on the amount of immunity granted.

3. Treatments have improved to help restore health.

Maybe the two of them will now converge on me!

Herd immunity can occur either naturally or with a vaccine. The latter is not guaranteed and constant lockdowns delay but don’t eliminate infections.

Reinfection has occurred only rarely and therefore can be ignored without further evidence. Spanish flu disappeared on its own after two years.

There is only one sensible solution, in my view. All the alternatives I have heard seem to be fatally flawed and these are for the pussies.

The PM knows what the right answer is, he just needs the courage to run with it.

---------- Post added at 19:03 ---------- Previous post was at 18:59 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Lockdown on it’s own can’t without an effective test, trace, isolate regime. Plus wider public health measures. Including paying people sick pay, at or close to their wages, to incentivise getting a test rather than dismissing it as a cough/cold.

Lockdown and restrictions pushes more cases to later in the pandemic with better treatments and the flow of a vaccine.

It’s not a desirable outcome - my point all along remains it’s an inevitable one for all the reasons that justified it in March. There’s no saving the economy by letting the virus run through the population.

If this goes on much longer we won’t be able to afford these remedies. This is cloud cuckoo land if ever I saw it.

[jfman]

It's such an expensive and ruinous waste of time not a single country on earth is proactively pursuing the policy. Neither is the leader of the Opposition.

What is ruinous is arranging tens of thousands of unnecessary funerals, condemning those who need the NHS over the next 12 months to go without treatment as it fills up with Covid beds and achieving NO IMMUNITY AT ALL.

Stick to your seasonal epidemiology Old Boy. At least it was harmless banter.

Ah, people who want to protect the vulnerable and are concerned about the unknown dangers of long COVID are "pussies’?

Nice to see rational, reasoned arguments being put forward...