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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 07-09-2014, 01:39   #1981
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Won't Scotland and lose out on GDP and tax income, when certain companies move south?
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Old 07-09-2014, 01:42   #1982
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
"Region" I thought it was supposed to be a country.

I haven't seen the numbers, to argue the point and you have provided them. but I'd be very surprised if we were to be very worse off by cutting them loose.
Varies from year to year, but they are way more 'productive' than Wales, Northern Ireland or most of England.

---------- Post added at 00:42 ---------- Previous post was at 00:42 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Won't Scotland and lose out on GDP and tax income, when certain companies move south?
Yes.
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Old 07-09-2014, 02:08   #1983
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Jimi sends his regards, in fact he said if "Chris, Derek, Russ, Stephen and especially osem need a big hug" he is happy tae oblige.
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Old 07-09-2014, 09:19   #1984
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Yougov record a 22 point swing in less than a month, just after the SNP encourage their supporters to sign up for them. Hmmmm.

Also less widely reported is the latest panelbase survey (as discredited as they are) shows a no lead.

If Yes win I'll be surprised. Out my family, close friends and work colleagues the breakdown of votes are.

Me - No
Wife - No
Parents - No
Brother - Yes
Office of 9 - 6 No, 1 yes, 2 undecided (probable yes)
Close friends - 6 No, 1 undecided

I suppose I need to find more complete halfwits to work and socialise with to get a closer balance to the Scottish average.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDaddy View Post
Jimi sends his regards, in fact he said if "Chris, Derek, Russ, Stephen and especially osem need a big hug" he is happy tae oblige.
jimi can get tae *$#

---------- Post added at 08:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:11 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Won't Scotland and lose out on GDP and tax income, when certain companies move south?
Ask a Yesser that and the general response is - But we will be free, and erm, oil, whisky, Freedom!!

Reality, especially economic reality escapes them.

---------- Post added at 08:19 ---------- Previous post was at 08:13 ----------

I do love how Rupert Murdoch has basically switched from being Satans more evil older brother to being the saviour of Scotland in the nats eyes.
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Old 07-09-2014, 10:19   #1985
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Eck better not be banking on oil receipts too much as there is likely to be some very bad news on that front in 2016 but by then the issue will be resolved either by scotland being independent or not sorted by no winning and the whole sorry saga dragging on.
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Old 07-09-2014, 10:36   #1986
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Somewhat inconveniently for Yes Scotland, they also published a poll this weekend. Panelbase, their favourite pollster, says it's Y:44, N:48, D/K:8. With Don't knows stripped out it's 52-48 in favour of No.

It's well worth having a look at the poll tracker at www.http://whatscotlandthinks.org/ . Survation, Panelbase and Yougov are all polling regularly at the moment, but Yougov is the only one showing any significant shift from No to Yes. Something peculiar is happening, but I can't quite make up my mind what it is. I am sure, however, that Scotland is not in the middle of a sudden and dramatic shift to Yes.

---------- Post added at 09:36 ---------- Previous post was at 09:34 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Won't Scotland and lose out on GDP and tax income, when certain companies move south?
Yes. Absent a currency union, almost the entire banking sector will be required by EU law to become domiciled in the remaining UK.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:01   #1987
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post

Yes. Absent a currency union, almost the entire banking sector will be required by EU law to become domiciled in the remaining UK.
....and with currency union?

---------- Post added at 10:01 ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek View Post
I suppose I need to find more complete halfwits to work and socialise with to get a closer balance to the Scottish average.[COLOR="Silver"]
Define halfwits?

I'd have thought that somebody who continues to argue for the status quo when the status quo isn't an option might fit into that category
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:09   #1988
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Good luck with Alec at the helm Scotland.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:13   #1989
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad View Post
....and with currency union?
They wouldn't be. Although rUK now has a choice between underwriting a Foreign backing sector or gaining a bigger banking sector. Another reason to doubt that Scotland will be granted a Currency Union.

Yes look like they're going to win so we'll see if rUK is bluffing on the Currency Union.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:13   #1990
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

I'm going to have to bugger off to a desert island somewhere, two more weeks of this bollocks will do my head right in.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:21   #1991
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
They wouldn't be. Although rUK now has a choice between underwriting a Foreign backing sector or gaining a bigger banking sector. Another reason to doubt that Scotland will be granted a Currency Union.

Yes look like they're going to win so we'll see if rUK is bluffing on the Currency Union.
I still think it will be a no vote. However, if it is a Yes vote I think that common sense would prevail and there would be a currency union. The finance sector isn't the only sector that has to be considered and no currency union would be detrimental to other sectors on both sides of the border.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:33   #1992
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by LondonRoad View Post
....and with currency union?
An interesting question. EU law says banks must be in the member state where most of their customers are. Whether they would make an exception for Scotland, if its banks were in the same currency zone, I don't know.

However, there will be no currency union with an independent Scotland. If there is a CU, then it will be part of a face-saving framework that allows Salmond to say Scotland is independent ... but it won't be. A nation of 5 million people that has to have its budget approved by the next-door nation 10 times bigger is not independent.
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:37   #1993
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonRoad View Post
I still think it will be a no vote. However, if it is a Yes vote I think that common sense would prevail and there would be a currency union. The finance sector isn't the only sector that has to be considered and no currency union would be detrimental to other sectors on both sides of the border.
It will be detrimental but not to the degree that it's common sense to have one. Sterling would be subject to a Foreign nation's economy. If Scotland took on a lot of debt and/or went on a spending spree that would impact upon the value of the Pound. If Scotland took on too much risk it would be up to rUK to underwrite it rather than Scotland due to rUK being the bigger entity - look at Germany and Greece - which would mean Scotland has a incentive to have a much riskier banking sector because it's the mugs across the border underwriting it. Incidentally this situation isn't reversed. rUK wouldn't be able to turn to Scotland to bail it out.

It's no where near common sense for rUK to join into this. The only way it would work is if rUK were in charge of regulation of the finance sector, put limits on what Scotland could spend and how much debt they would take on, and set all monetary policy.

In other words a political union to match the monetary one. This is what we already have and Scotland wants to leave it.

rUK will not bail out iScotland. It's political suicide for politicians this side of the border to contemplate such a scenario. We didn't join the Euro either and the only reason people think the Currency Union is a foregone conclusion is because Yes have been making up economics as they go alone.
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Old 07-09-2014, 12:09   #1994
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
An interesting question. EU law says banks must be in the member state where most of their customers are. Whether they would make an exception for Scotland, if its banks were in the same currency zone, I don't know.

However, there will be no currency union with an independent Scotland. If there is a CU, then it will be part of a face-saving framework that allows Salmond to say Scotland is independent ... but it won't be. A nation of 5 million people that has to have its budget approved by the next-door nation 10 times bigger is not independent.
That is what I have been saying all along. Wanting to retain the monarchy, the pound, the EC membership and any other bits that might win a few Yes votes. The real choice is between an interdependent independence and a, yet to be defined, increased devolution.

Real independence isn't really possible in the modern world:
There is the possibility that Scotland could vote to remain part of the Union but a UK referendum has them leaving the EC, or Scotland votes Yes and rUK leaves the EC.

No matter how the vote goes on the 18th there are interesting political times ahead in these isles of ours.

---------- Post added at 11:09 ---------- Previous post was at 11:05 ----------

Quote:
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It's no where near common sense for rUK to join into this. .
Common sense was too loose a term to use. I meant common sense for the many sectors who have businesses both sides of the border..
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Old 07-09-2014, 12:09   #1995
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

As an aside the YouGov poll is very weird. It seems there is a MORI poll (or ICM?) coming this week which uses face-to-face and phone polls as well. That might help give us a clearer picture.

I think it's too late to offer devo-max now. Scotland needs to vote a clear Yes/No to Independence and then the question can be asked if further devolution is needed should the vote be No.

I would rather the British Government spent time formulating the plan for a Yes vote. Where to put Trident. How to deal with the hit from the finances including Salmond's threat not to take on debt and to cut corporation tax.
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