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Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences
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Old 07-10-2021, 09:07   #16
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

In fact we are overdue for a major event; they seem to occur at fairly regular intervals - 10 million years is one figure I've read.

And the reason these things aren't spotted until they're right on top of us is that a) many of them are nearly black (carbonaceous) and therefore hard to see anyway, and b) we don't have a global tracking system such as Clarke's imagined Spaceguard...and whatever the expense, we do need such a system because I for one don't believe for a moment that we'll survive anything on the scale of the event that did for the dinosaurs. The EMP alone would be devastating.

The cost of any such system will be irrelevant if we don't set it up and get annihilated as a result, don't you think?

"Important"? Hmm. Is our survival as a species important? I'd say it is - to us, at least. We've been lucky so far. Sooner or later luck always runs out.

Besides, such a system might actually pay for itself - it might spot a Near-Earth Object loaded with valuable metals. Scientists are pretty sure such objects exist.
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Old 07-10-2021, 09:37   #17
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

They don't really need to be 'big' to cause widespread damage/devastation, they just have to hit - or explode over - the wrong place.

Something half the size of the Tunguska one would cause a bit of a splash in the ocean, but hitting New York, London, Tokyo . . or a Nuclear power station . . or a critical point on the California fault line . . or kick starting Yellowstone etc.

It wouldn't kill us off, but the far reaching consequences aren't good.
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Old 07-10-2021, 09:53   #18
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul View Post
I'm curious, do you go out for drinks, concerts, football, or other sport/entertainment/things, or do you give all your money to to people without food ?

Ofcourse I do. But I also give to charity.


I see your point. They can't be truly compared against each other.

---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 ----------

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I guess it depends on whether you actually want the human race to survive whenever such an emergency arises in the future.



We may be living on another planet one day. Those remaining on earth get nuked and the others living on another newly established place take over.
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Old 07-10-2021, 09:55   #19
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

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The chances of it being heads reduces every flip to, we're probably over due a biggie by now anyway,
This is the gamblerís fallacy. The outcome of one coin toss doesnít affect the outcome of any future toss. Every coin toss still has odds of 50/50. Even if you get 10 heads in a row, the odds on the 11th toss are still 50/50.

The odds of a major impact event can be calculated by looking at how often these things have happened in the past, but thatís all it is - an estimate of how many times something will happen in the future based on how many times it has happened in the past. If a once-in-a-century event doesnít occur for 5 centuries, then we donít assume an event is imminent, but we do perhaps recalculate the odds.
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Old 07-10-2021, 10:05   #20
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

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No we aren't, NASA is. In case you didn't know NASA is funded by and based in the USA.

We also spent over £17 billion on aid to other "poorer" countries.
I was talking about us as a species, in case you didn't know we are all human and exacting 17 billion isn't all our money like what was expected of Halcyon
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Old 07-10-2021, 10:31   #21
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

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This is the gambler’s fallacy. The outcome of one coin toss doesn’t affect the outcome of any future toss. Every coin toss still has odds of 50/50. Even if you get 10 heads in a row, the odds on the 11th toss are still 50/50.

Slightly off topic but.... Surely some coins have more weight to one side or the other. eg. the more embossed area of the queens head against whatever is on the flip side.
This could influence the toss.


As to asteroids....We are safe for another 100 years atleast.
I'd be more worried about heading up in a rocket and crashing into space debris.




Quote:
Nasa had deemed Apophis to be one of the most dangerous asteroids to Earth after its discovery in 2004.


Close calls in 2029 and 2036 were predicted and later ruled out. A slight threat still remained for 2068.


But now Nasa has dismissed that threat based on new analysis of the asteroid.


"A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility any more, and our calculations don't show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years," Davide Farnocchia, a scientist who studies near-Earth objects for Nasa
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Old 07-10-2021, 10:57   #22
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
This is the gamblerís fallacy. The outcome of one coin toss doesnít affect the outcome of any future toss. Every coin toss still has odds of 50/50. Even if you get 10 heads in a row, the odds on the 11th toss are still 50/50.

The odds of a major impact event can be calculated by looking at how often these things have happened in the past, but thatís all it is - an estimate of how many times something will happen in the future based on how many times it has happened in the past. If a once-in-a-century event doesnít occur for 5 centuries, then we donít assume an event is imminent, but we do perhaps recalculate the odds.
The odds of the coin toss might be near to 50/50 each individual toss but in terms of probability you aren't going to toss 50 heads out of 50. That notwithstanding your second paragraph is probably a far better way of assessing it rather than flipping a coin!

---------- Post added at 10:57 ---------- Previous post was at 10:53 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halcyon View Post
Slightly off topic but.... Surely some coins have more weight to one side or the other. eg. the more embossed area of the queens head against whatever is on the flip side.
This could influence the toss.


As to asteroids....We are safe for another 100 years atleast.
I'd be more worried about heading up in a rocket and crashing into space debris.
It's true I remember some egg head report saying similar, I'd try and find it but my eyesight isn't good at the moment, don't think they insinuated anything untoward like a weightier side or anything, just that heads wins slightly more often
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Old 23-10-2021, 09:23   #23
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Re: Nasa to crash spacecraft into asteroid in 'Armageddon' test of defences

How dangerous that is. Playing games with an asteroid can end badly. I read that the trajectory can change unpredictably((
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