VOD : The future for linear TV channels

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

Errr .... No .... That's evidence of the shift in *video* viewing, as the article you linked to clearly states.

Not sure I quite understand your comment, Chris. I'm referring to the shift from viewing linear channels to alternative means of viewing, such as video on demand, video streaming, etc.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but the whole point of this thread is to look at whether this shift in viewing patterns will reduce income from advertising on broadcast TV which will then undermine the whole platform, leading to a sharp diminution or extinction of linear channels.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Not sure I quite understand your comment, Chris. I'm referring to the shift from viewing linear channels to alternative means of viewing, such as video on demand, video streaming, etc.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but the whole point of this thread is to look at whether this shift in viewing patterns will reduce income from advertising on broadcast TV which will then undermine the whole platform, leading to a sharp diminution or extinction of linear channels.

I know what the topic is. It seems perhaps that you don't. Or at least, you don't understand that a drop in ownership of video on disc, coupled with a rise in streaming video over the internet, has precisely nothing to do with the future of linear TV broadcasts.

It does have something to do with the future of DVD sales and rentals. That, however, is not the topic here.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

I know what the topic is. It seems perhaps that you don't. Or at least, you don't understand that a drop in ownership of video on disc, coupled with a rise in streaming video over the internet, has precisely nothing to do with the future of linear TV broadcasts.

It does have something to do with the future of DVD sales and rentals. That, however, is not the topic here.

OK, I see now the point that you are making.

However, I don't think that you would deny that video streaming is becoming increasingly popular, and that this is and will continue to impact on viewing figures for broadcast TV.

I accept that the article is not, however, a comparison with broadcast television viewing habits.

Anything that you can do in your living room of an evening, that is not watching linear broadcast TV, will inevitably have an impact on the overall viewing figures of linear TV channels. But you haven't been arguing simply that broadcast viewing figures will take a hit - your hypothesis here is that VOD will at some point overtake linear to the point that linear, over-the-air broadcast will end.

Many, many reasons have been provided in this thread why that will not happen any time in the foreseeable future.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

Anything that you can do in your living room of an evening, that is not watching linear broadcast TV, will inevitably have an impact on the overall viewing figures of linear TV channels. But you haven't been arguing simply that broadcast viewing figures will take a hit - your hypothesis here is that VOD will at some point overtake linear to the point that linear, over-the-air broadcast will end.

Many, many reasons have been provided in this thread why that will not happen any time in the foreseeable future.

Yes, this is what I have been arguing and other media reports support that analysis.

I am certainly not arguing that this will happen overnight, and as has been pointed out, TV advertising revenues are increasing at the moment. I am just saying that in the long term, this trend will reverse sharply.

Of course, the TV broadcasters could find various ways of pre-empting this scenario, but if they do not adapt, they will, unfortunately, die.

[Mad Max]

People will watch what they want when they want now that the technology allows this, the days of having to sit down at a scheduled airing time of a TV show are long gone imo, I pretty much agree with OB with regards to linear broadcasts, although it wont happen overnight.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

People will watch what they want when they want now that the technology allows this, the days of having to sit down at a scheduled airing time of a TV show are long gone imo, I pretty much agree with OB with regards to linear broadcasts, although it wont happen overnight.

I agree it will increase but as existing channels provide on-demand services I don't see it being a threat to linear channels who are busily adapting accordingly. Channel 4's forthcoming All4 service is a good example of this. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29154860

[RichardCoulter]

This report says that, despite the interest from some consumers, there is minimal interest in cord cutting:

http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201503193...#axzz3UqRKPbLy

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

This report says that, despite the interest from some consumers, there is minimal interest in cord cutting:

http://www.rapidtvnews.com/201503193...#axzz3UqRKPbLy

That article makes a good point - pay-TV is bought for a household and a single package from say HBO won't cover a household's needs. I think there's also another reason in the US - the best broadband services come bundled with cable and are priced to discourage just broadband-only purchases. Competitors to cable companies just offer poor ADSL services unless you're in a Google-cabled area or your state has invested in its own fibre network.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

That article makes a good point - pay-TV is bought for a household and a single package from say HBO won't cover a household's needs. I think there's also another reason in the US - the best broadband services come bundled with cable and are priced to discourage just broadband-only purchases. Competitors to cable companies just offer poor ADSL services unless you're in a Google-cabled area or your state has invested in its own fibre network.

I suspect that a lot of cord cutters are single households. They probably won't be interested in some genresveg the childrens channels and don't have to consider the desired viewing of others.

[johnathome]

Decline of traditional broadcasting much exaggerated, according to Andrew Neil.

An interesting read

http://www.digitaltveurope.net/33807...ted-says-neil/

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by johnathome

Decline of traditional broadcasting much exaggerated, according to Andrew Neil.

An interesting read

http://www.digitaltveurope.net/33807...ted-says-neil/

He makes much of the fact that viewing on tablets, laptops and smartphones accounts for 2% of viewing, but the telling figures are to be found further in the article:

Sky is seeing a 40% rise in on-demand viewing every year and is moving to become a quad-play provider through its deal with O2.”

Once again, the focus in this article is on the present rather than the future. New ideas often take some time to catch on, but I think the trend away from linear channels is already beginning.

Of course it is always possible that Channel 4's approach of blurring the lines between the different types of viewing with All 4, and new innovative ways of keeping advertising rates up may yet save the day. But will people really still be watching TV the old fashioned way in a decade or two's time? I have serious doubts!

[telegramsam]

I must admit I watch most of my tv programs either recorded or on demand for two reasons. 1)because I work night shifts and 2)to avoid the adverts,although more and more on demand programs have adverts before or in the middle of them. I still watch live channels though especially football matches.

[theone2k10]

Originally Posted by telegramsam

I must admit I watch most of my tv programs either recorded or on demand for two reasons. 1)because I work night shifts and 2)to avoid the adverts,although more and more on demand programs have adverts before or in the middle of them. I still watch live channels though especially football matches.

Same here but all mine is done online.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by telegramsam

I must admit I watch most of my tv programs either recorded or on demand for two reasons. 1)because I work night shifts and 2)to avoid the adverts,although more and more on demand programs have adverts before or in the middle of them. I still watch live channels though especially football matches.

Being 3 of in my house an different tastes we often get clashes, so we normally record non BBC channels so we can cut the adverts.