Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Originally Posted by Mad Max

LMFAO

This is excellent.

For Salmond’s strategy to work, he needs to get large numbers of SNP voters to vote SNP for their constituency and then for the Alba Party on the regional list. But the SNP has gone straight into full-scale attack mode so it’s clearly not going to play along. If Salmond’s party is a flop, he may simply end up siphoning off enough SNP votes to lose them their list seats without gaining them for himself. He certainly isn’t going to get his supermajority unless the SNP starts genuinely cooperating with him.

[jfman]

The latest Survation poll has the SNP winning a majority off the constituencies alone. In that eventuality it’d be almost impossible to take anything off the list.

[1andrew1]

Alex Salmnd ally MP Kenny MacAskill quits SNP for Alba Party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-56550195

Originally Posted by jfman

The latest Survation poll has the SNP winning a majority off the constituencies alone. In that eventuality it’d be almost impossible to take anything off the list.

They need 65 seats for a majority. To get all of those from the constituencies would be quite an achievement - even in 2011, they only got 53 seats, on 45.4% of the vote. At present they have 59 on 46.5%. If their constituency vote goes up any higher, exactly where in the country it’s going up will make a big difference to how many more seats it translates into.

You have a point though, they do tend to do slightly less well on the list vote, by a couple of points. The greens seem to be the main beneficiaries of that as things stand.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

They need 65 seats for a majority. To get all of those from the constituencies would be quite an achievement - even in 2011, they only got 53 seats, on 45.4% of the vote. At present they have 59 on 46.5%. If their constituency vote goes up any higher, exactly where in the country it’s going up will make a big difference to how many more seats it translates into.

You have a point though, they do tend to do slightly less well on the list vote, by a couple of points. The greens seem to be the main beneficiaries of that as things stand.

They won 56 of 59 constituencies in the UK General Election in 2015, not standing in Michael Martin’s seat. So while it’d be an achievement it’s not without precedent in Scotland.

I do think that’s what will make the election fascinating viewing. A few percentage points either way impacts on the swing seats and the list is designed to compensate but doesn’t always perfectly - as you say it depends where the gains/losses are. SNP list votes do trend lower by around 5% with the main beneficiary the Greens as you say.

All this agreeing with each other is disconcerting.

[jfman]

As I've said to others there's no point getting bogged down in the things we won't agree on. Any political observer, on either side, has to acknowledge it makes for fascinating viewing. Which I think should make for fascinating discussion which I look forward to over the next 7 weeks or so.

Plus the aftermath I guess.

BREAKING: Neale Hanvey MP (Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath) has left the Scottish National Party and joined the Alba Party.

[jfman]

Who?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Alex Salmnd ally MP Kenny MacAskill quits SNP for Alba Party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-56550195

Isn't that councillor Kenny, can't remember why I know him but think he was way out of his depth in something that took the worlds attention for a fortunately brief time not so long ago

[jfman]

Ah that'll be a reference to Kenny releasing the "Lockerbie bomber" who probably didn't do it after 8.5 years.

He had terminal cancer and lived 2.75 years, and still probably didn't plant the bomb.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by jfman

Ah that'll be a reference to Kenny releasing the "Lockerbie bomber" who probably didn't do it after 8.5 years.

He had terminal cancer and lived 2.75 years, and still probably didn't plant the bomb.

Yes I think you're right, he was so far out of his depth it was embarrassing, no wonder Ian Blackford said it was a relief to be rid of him

[nashville]

I really. Dread to think what would happen if they got their way, we are to old to leave Scotland and would hate to be ruled by the SNP , They are so full of hate and believe they are correct all the time, Scotland must waken up and realise what they are! I really worry about what the future is for Scotland,

[jfman]

"Full of hate" such uninspiring and divisive rhetoric. The kind of thing I'd strongly advise unionists against as it's simply perpetuating and entrenching their problem at the ballot box.

Believing Scotland could self-govern better than it is being governed from London isn't a hateful pursuit. Portraying it as such is denying the right of Scottish people to self-determination - be that a decision to remain in the UK or independence.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nashville

I really. Dread to think what would happen if they got their way, we are to old to leave Scotland and would hate to be ruled by the SNP , They are so full of hate and believe they are correct all the time, Scotland must waken up and realise what they are! I really worry about what the future is for Scotland,

You could still vote in another political party, post independence.

And aren't you ruled by the SNP now to some extent?