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Old 12-06-2019, 19:36   #3376
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
So why on earth would everything be delayed by 3 months? How did we function before we joined EFTA, EEC etc?
We didnít have Just In Time supply chains...
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Old 12-06-2019, 19:46   #3377
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Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
We didnít have Just In Time supply chains...
So what? That is for manufacturing, not supply of medicines. Even so, you could easily factor in a longer delivery time.


Still not getting why anything would be completely delayed by 3 months.
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Old 12-06-2019, 20:34   #3378
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
So what? That is for manufacturing, not supply of medicines. Even so, you could easily factor in a longer delivery time.


Still not getting why anything would be completely delayed by 3 months.
Can you tell me what you propose manufacturers sell during this ďlonger delivery timeĒ?
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Old 12-06-2019, 21:01   #3379
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
So what? That is for manufacturing, not supply of medicines. Even so, you could easily factor in a longer delivery time.


Still not getting why anything would be completely delayed by 3 months.
Medicines are manufactured in this country, using ingredients sourced elsewhere...

You may find this informative...

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...-brexit--64926
Quote:
Each month, approximately 82 million packs of medicine flow between the UK and the EU, according to a recent report from the Brexit Health Alliance, a coalition including the National Health Service (NHS) and various biomedical, research, patient, and public health organizations. Any post-Brexit hurdles to the free movement of goods could spell trouble for those supplies, potentially leading to temporary drug shortages.

For example, medicinal insulin, used by millions of diabetes patients—including UK prime minister Theresa May—is not manufactured in the UK, nor is it easily stored, as it requires temperature-controlled conditions. The medicine is partly produced and packaged in the EU, and a disruption to the supply chain due to a no-deal Brexit “is one of the ways that patients could be severely disadvantaged,” Michael Rawlins, chair of the MHRA, told The Pharmaceutical Journal in July.
---------- Post added at 21:01 ---------- Previous post was at 21:00 ----------

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Can you tell me what you propose manufacturers sell during this “longer delivery time”?
”sunlit uplands"?
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Last edited by Hugh; 12-06-2019 at 21:04.
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Old 12-06-2019, 21:01   #3380
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Re: Brexit

edit: just seen Hughs post
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Old 12-06-2019, 21:16   #3381
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
So what? That is for manufacturing, not supply of medicines. Even so, you could easily factor in a longer delivery time.


Still not getting why anything would be completely delayed by 3 months.
Oooh, ooh, I can answer this as I work in the industry!

Over 60% of the cost of goods sold (COGS) of a drug is fixed costs of simply having a manufacturing facility. Those costs are there regardless of whether a company is making product or not.

Because of this, there is a massive drive towards 100% utilisation of any manufacturing facility as only making drugs makes you money. If you are running at over 90% capacity, you don't have much scope to scale up production without investment in larger facilities and this kind of thing runs on a multi-year cycle. Even just doubling up and buying a second lot of the same equipment would take 9-12 months to buy, install and qualify.

This of course just takes in to account the drug manufacturer themselves. The suppliers of raw materials and equipment will work on the same principle. They try and work and build facilities to match the scale of the demand from their customers, the pharma industry. Again, scaling up production isn't trivial. The company I work for has been investing in a second production facility for some raw materials. We are investing $700m in this and have taken 2 years to far and anticipate another 18 months for customers to accept that the product made on the new lines is the same as the old product.

Then of course, we have our suppliers and they have their suppliers and on it goes...

A well oiled industry works both using just in time manufacturing but also working towards 100% utilisation of their facility. Knowing what 100% is depends on good market knowledge but also a stable market. Sudden stockpiling in a market as large as the UK is hugely destabilising.

The last time I saw anything like this was during the risk of pandemic flu. During that time, we did a great deal of horse trading with our customers to get a much closer idea of their needs and what might need to be dropped if new flu therapies were needed in a hurry.

I have papers galore on this but they would kind of tell you who I work for...
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Old 12-06-2019, 21:48   #3382
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Re: Brexit

To expand on what jon has posted above...

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news...ration/436496/
Quote:
Merck & Co.'s 2015/2016 Corporate Responsibility Report reveals the company's manufacturing initiatives for two simple mandates: reduce costs and increase capacity. Optimizing supply chain management to better match production with buyer demand promises to do both simultaneously.

"Our manufacturing division has undertaken an ambitious program to reduce the cost of production by reducing underutilized capacity, increasing efficiency through Lean and Six Sigma projects at manufacturing sites, reducing procurement spending, and improving supply performance, including on-time deliveries and reduction of supply shortages," the company wrote in the report.

But the mandate is easier said than done. In addition to Merck's various planning hubs and private manufacturing facility, the company also operates 148 external manufacturing plants and produces 10,300 different product size finishes. In addition, each facility likely communicates with a number of pharmaceutical ingredient suppliers, packaging companies and distributors. The scale of the company's operations alone complicates any forecast.
https://www.pharmalogisticsiq.com/re...-supply-chains
Quote:
In the space of 6 months, the level of EU businesses that expect to move some of their supply chain out of the UK due to Brexit jumped up by 19% to 63% of the practitioners surveyed
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Navigating_the_Pharmaceutical_Supply_Chain1.jpg (155.0 KB, 7 views)
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Last edited by Hugh; 12-06-2019 at 21:59.
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Old 12-06-2019, 22:06   #3383
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Re: Brexit

Yawn - still peddling Fake News horror stories. You Remainers will never learn.

We voted to leave the corrupted EU-that was democracy. So leave it we must this October, but before then preferably.
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Old 12-06-2019, 22:20   #3384
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Re: Brexit

What exactly is fake about a cabinet office memo? Nowt is the correct answer.

What are our chances of leaving the EU before or on 31 October 2019? Again, nowt is the correct answer.

How much of a monkey's does the PM-in-waiting BoJo care about ensuring Brexit happens? Yet again, nowt is the correct answer.
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Old 12-06-2019, 22:32   #3385
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Re: Brexit

Still doesn't answer the simple questions of, how come it's supposed to manifest itself with a 3 month delay, and how do they cope with delays that must occur because of things like extreme bad weather.
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Old 13-06-2019, 03:47   #3386
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Still doesn't answer the simple questions of, how come it's supposed to manifest itself with a 3 month delay, and how do they cope with delays that must occur because of things like extreme bad weather.
I know the weather can be grim, but I doubt it causes disruption if more than a few days, not months.
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Old 13-06-2019, 07:26   #3387
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Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Mick View Post
Yawn - still peddling Fake News horror stories. You Remainers will never learn.

We voted to leave the corrupted EU-that was democracy. So leave it we must this October, but before then preferably.
Do anyone ever get deja vu ?
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Old 13-06-2019, 08:22   #3388
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
I am not sure who your audience is here? The people who know what this means, already get it and the others, well, they do not want to know and more importantly, they do not care.

You can supply all the supporting evidence and documentation you can get your hands on, it will make no difference. We seem to be beyond a point where presenting an argued, fact-based & informed position can alter someone's position.

We are now in the Twilight Zone:

Quote:
psychological thriller, often concluding with a macabre or unexpected twist, and usually with a moral.
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Old 13-06-2019, 08:56   #3389
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick View Post
Yawn - still peddling Fake News horror stories. You Remainers will never learn.

We voted to leave the corrupted EU-that was democracy. So leave it we must this October, but before then preferably.
Bu bu but we only need another 57 years to prepare.............
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Old 13-06-2019, 08:57   #3390
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
I am not sure who your audience is here? The people who know what this means, already get it and the others, well, they do not want to know and more importantly, they do not care.

You can supply all the supporting evidence and documentation you can get your hands on, it will make no difference. We seem to be beyond a point where presenting an argued, fact-based & informed position can alter someone's position.

We are now in the Twilight Zone:
Itís not about caring, cannot care about negative rubbish, created to install fear. It does not work with me. The way you carry on and on about baseless information, because thatís all it is, is tiresome ianch99. There is no reason information about negative crap put forward by Remainers because they think we cannot survive outside a corrupt organisation. We can and we will. That is what was voted for.
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