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Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 28-11-2020, 03:43   #1561
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Nothing is happening immediately, Legendkiller! This is the mistake so many people are making! Nobody is saying these changes are happening right now. But the process will start within a few years, and then will accelerate exponentially.

I have not seen Channel 4’s 20-year-deal, but I dare say that if you read the small print, there will be no problem in closing down the channels and transferring the content to their streaming service. They will have been pretty incompetent not to have foreseen this.

---------- Post added at 23:01 ---------- Previous post was at 22:51 ----------



Stop nitpicking, jfman, just because it doesn’t suit your narrative. The reporter was quoting what was said, and if he misquoted, no doubt law suits will follow. You are being disingenuous. Let’s just address the way things seem to be going.

Happy to consider any reasoned arguments. I am happy to debate whether TV channels will actually disappear altogether, which is a reasonable point to make, but surely, that is the point we should be debating.

I appreciate that when losing an argument, this can be difficult. But this is a debating forum....
Ah my bad i forgot you know more about this than the company i work for afterall they only handle contracts worth hundreds of millions of pounds but what do we know eh?
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Old 28-11-2020, 11:25   #1562
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k View Post
Ah my bad i forgot you know more about this than the company i work for afterall they only handle contracts worth hundreds of millions of pounds but what do we know eh?
Well, if you’ve seen something significant that tells you that Channel 4 will not move over to streaming only in the long term, I will bow to your superior knowledge, but you haven’t made that argument.

I have provided a link to back up what I think, and it is one of many in relation to a streaming only future.
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Old 28-11-2020, 11:28   #1563
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, if you’ve seen something significant that tells you that Channel 4 will not move over to streaming only in the long term, I will bow to your superior knowledge, but you haven’t made that argument.

I have provided a link to back up what I think, and it is one of many in relation to a streaming only future.
The link doesn't back up what you think no matter how often you repeat that it does. It's a clear selective interpretation that you've deployed as you continue to clutch at straws.

No matter where Channel 4s priorities go or where they are extracting revenues from they simply will not give up the fourth most prominent EPG slot.
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Old 28-11-2020, 11:46   #1564
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
The reporter clearly isn't reporting what was said - hence they did not use quotation marks or attribute a quote to that end. They are offering their own input/analysis and no such law suit, on such an uncontroversial topic, would be considered a reasonable or proportionate response.

"The future" being streaming doesn't equate to the end of linear broadcasting entirely. Nobody, at any point, on the forum has contested that the way people are consuming content is changing or that as companies chase revenues/profits they will have to shift their content delivery in a way that suits these habits.

That doesn't equate to the end of linear, scheduled broadcasting over DTT, cable or satellite (or even IPTV - I'm completely agnostic on the technology). You know this already. I wouldn't consider myself losing any such argument - I've set the extremely low bar throughout where if a single linear channel exists in 2035 I'm proven right. With Amazon and Netflix testing a linear channel I think there's life in them for a good while yet.
I am not saying that Pluto-like TV channels won’t exist on streamers. What I am saying is that all those channels we currently pick up via the airwaves, over satellite and through our cable services will disappear in time, in favour of Netflix-like, content based VOD interfaces. Pluto-like channels may well exist on streamers, but they will be serving a minority interest - most people will not bother with them, and that’s why the TV channels broadcast traditionally will die out. In my opinion of course. Other opinions are available.

You may be technology-agnostic, but surely this is what the debate is all about.

---------- Post added at 10:46 ---------- Previous post was at 10:40 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
The link doesn't back up what you think no matter how often you repeat that it does. It's a clear selective interpretation that you've deployed as you continue to clutch at straws.

No matter where Channel 4s priorities go or where they are extracting revenues from they simply will not give up the fourth most prominent EPG slot.
The EPG will not be relevant in years to come. All of your answers appear to be based on nothing changing. OK, I accept that’s your point of view. Good luck with that.
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Old 28-11-2020, 13:36   #1565
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

And we're back to Shrodinger's linear where it will simultaneously exist (and not exist) to suit Old Boy's incoherent argument.

It will work for plucky upstarts like Pluto TV to still deliver linear, but it's a flawed model for the BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Five, Sky and all the present incumbents to continue doing so. Such a laughably ludicrous notion I'm sure other members will agree.

At no point have I ever said my opinions are based on nothing changing so please don't continue to misrepresent my posts.
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Old 28-11-2020, 13:53   #1566
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, if you’ve seen something significant that tells you that Channel 4 will not move over to streaming only in the long term, I will bow to your superior knowledge, but you haven’t made that argument.

I have provided a link to back up what I think, and it is one of many in relation to a streaming only future.
Hmm a random link or a actual contract document i know which one i believe.

Streaming is certainly going to grow quite rapidly no-one is disputing that but the big 5 channels are going nowhere from tradiotional tv methods.
Channel 4 already has it's own online live tv streaming in place via the all4 app and has done for quite awhile i will give you a snippet of what we had in the documents awhile back obviously i can't give too much out "we Channel Four Television Corporation propose to increase our spend on our over the air channels with intention to grow in HD on those platforms we propose (Sattelite, Terrestial and online)"
I think that puts that link to bed OB.
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Last edited by Legendkiller2k; 28-11-2020 at 13:58.
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Old 28-11-2020, 13:57   #1567
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k View Post
Hmm a random link or a actual contract document i know which one i believe.
That link was quality by Old Boy's usual standards in fairness. From a recognised publication for a change and not a digital marketing blog.

It just didn't say what OB thinks it did.
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Old 28-11-2020, 14:02   #1568
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
That link was quality by Old Boy's usual standards in fairness. From a recognised publication for a change and not a digital marketing blog.

It just didn't say what OB thinks it did.
OB has been banging this drum for several years i believe one day he might actual listen to those of us who actually work in that industry.
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Old 28-11-2020, 14:02   #1569
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k View Post
OB has been banging this drum for several years i believe one day he might actual listen to those of us who actually work in that industry.
What do they know.
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Old 28-11-2020, 14:04   #1570
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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What do they know.
I know i mean several hundreds of millions of pounds contracts being dealt with but i guess OBs imagination deals with more
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Old 30-11-2020, 15:49   #1571
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

I love dipping in and out of this thread, always makes me chuckle

So broadcast TV is slowly dying, that cant be argued. Viewers on average are down and ad revenue is slowly declining, especially in this current Covid world... but heres the deal... Broadcast is so critical to service suppliers like Sky, ITV and others because a huge portion of their income comes from advertising revenue. If these providers move more towards a full on demand service and whittle away their broadcast channels then they will feel the fit in revenue.

On demand is booming, it will continue to overtake the broadcast market but broadcast will probably be here for the very long term. As someone who is actively working on next generation technology that includes broadcast services, i can happily confirm that broadcast TV will certainly be around on the Virgin Media network for many years to come.
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Old 30-11-2020, 17:57   #1572
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by weesteev View Post
I love dipping in and out of this thread, always makes me chuckle

So broadcast TV is slowly dying, that cant be argued. Viewers on average are down and ad revenue is slowly declining, especially in this current Covid world... but heres the deal... Broadcast is so critical to service suppliers like Sky, ITV and others because a huge portion of their income comes from advertising revenue. If these providers move more towards a full on demand service and whittle away their broadcast channels then they will feel the fit in revenue.

On demand is booming, it will continue to overtake the broadcast market but broadcast will probably be here for the very long term. As someone who is actively working on next generation technology that includes broadcast services, i can happily confirm that broadcast TV will certainly be around on the Virgin Media network for many years to come.
OB will be along soon to tell you you're wrong the fairies at the bottom of his garden know better than us in the industry
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Old 30-11-2020, 20:55   #1573
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

So i checked systems for OB and nothing at all is on them about Channel 4 leaving traditional tv methods.

Also came through today SKY are proposing Shudder, Amazon prime video and Starzplay apps on the SKYQ box.
This is only at proposal stages at the moment.
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Old 30-11-2020, 21:43   #1574
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k View Post
So i checked systems for OB and nothing at all is on them about Channel 4 leaving traditional tv methods.

Also came through today SKY are proposing Shudder, Amazon prime video and Starzplay apps on the SKYQ box.
This is only at proposal stages at the moment.
My dear chap, I am not suggesting that any of these changes I have been going on about will happen in the next few months! How much of the contractual stuff do you see that deals with 2035, or even 2025?

5G broadcast certainly won’t be ready to replace DTT for some good few years - well beyond your modus operandi.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:30 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by weesteev View Post
I love dipping in and out of this thread, always makes me chuckle

So broadcast TV is slowly dying, that cant be argued. Viewers on average are down and ad revenue is slowly declining, especially in this current Covid world... but heres the deal... Broadcast is so critical to service suppliers like Sky, ITV and others because a huge portion of their income comes from advertising revenue. If these providers move more towards a full on demand service and whittle away their broadcast channels then they will feel the fit in revenue.

On demand is booming, it will continue to overtake the broadcast market but broadcast will probably be here for the very long term. As someone who is actively working on next generation technology that includes broadcast services, i can happily confirm that broadcast TV will certainly be around on the Virgin Media network for many years to come.
You have not taken account of the fact that an increase in OTT viewing will rob the TV channels of their audience, thus reducing advertising revenue. Your premise is that viewer habits will not shift in a major way in the future, which is a pretty big assumption, given the way younger people watch TV. Those younger people are growing older, and there is no sign yet that they are changing their OTT viewing habits. Then there is the newer generation starting to come through, who are even more attracted to OTT viewing.

Add to that the declining quality of content on the traditional TV channels, and you are looking at a bleak future for them. I believe that the direct to consumer approach increasingly adopted by the various studios (to wit, the Disney content, which will all now move exclusively to Disney+) will be the final nail in the coffin.

Despite what some people think on this forum, the traditional channels will not carry on broadcasting once a certain audience threshold can no longer be reached. The BBC saved a lot of money when it transferred BBC3 to online only, and therefore OTT-only distribution will become much more attractive. This will be paid for by subscription and/or advertising.
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Old 30-11-2020, 21:54   #1575
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
My dear chap, I am not suggesting that any of these changes I have been going on about will happen in the next few months! How much of the contractual stuff do you see that deals with 2035, or even 2025?

5G broadcast certainly won’t be ready to replace DTT for some good few years - well beyond your modus operandi.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:30 ----------



You have not taken account of the fact that an increase in OTT viewing will rob the TV channels of their audience, thus reducing advertising revenue. Your premise is that viewer habits will not shift in a major way in the future, which is a pretty big assumption, given the way younger people watch TV. Those younger people are growing older, and there is no sign yet that they are changing their OTT viewing habits. Then there is the newer generation starting to come through, who are even more attracted to OTT viewing.

Add to that the declining quality of content on the traditional TV channels, and you are looking at a bleak future for them. I believe that the direct to consumer approach increasingly adopted by the various studios (to wit, the Disney content, which will all now move exclusively to Disney+) will be the final nail in the coffin.

Despite what some people think on this forum, the traditional channels will not carry on broadcasting once a certain audience threshold can no longer be reached. The BBC saved a lot of money when it transferred BBC3 to online only, and therefore OTT-only distribution will become much more attractive. This will be paid for by subscription and/or advertising.
Looks a lot like moving goalposts again to me.

https://youtu.be/lz9HDvg_mp0
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