Coronavirus (OLD)

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

No it wouldn’t. In your opinion you deem that to be the case, presumably solely for the purposes of being argumentative as it’s not based in reality.

Many, many simulations work on very narrow parameters due to the difficulty in applying a full scale simulation for something that in the real world would be massive. Something like a global pandemic for example.

They can, and do, build upon real world examples elsewhere - the test being on the differences such as the healthcare system.

A simulation cannot be expected to change strategies unless the simulation is tested against various strategies. Otherwise there can be no right or wrong strategy. People are constantly whinging X should've been done on day Y, not day Z. Unless the simulation tested both those and other options, it is meaningless. To be 2nd in list of preparedness is not too shabby.

Enough from both of you. Move On.

[1andrew1]

Grim but convincing number-crunching from Sky

If things continue as they are now it looks quite plausible that there could be 10,000 dead of COVID-19 in this country by next week, that Britain could even be faced with a more intense COVID-19 outbreak and higher numbers of dead than Italy.
This might seem implausible given more than 10,000 people have already died in Italy and given the number in the UK is a fraction of that. But look at the numbers and there's a very different message.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...eaths-11966517

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

This is basically what my doctor told me, which is why I am now being 'shielded' from the virus. In a nutshell my health is so poor that it could kill me which, as well as having to put myself under house arrest, has affected my state of mental health. I imagine it's the same for many others too. Depression, anxiety etc will be going through the roof, so please everybody, try to be kind to one another.

The other half is a therapist, they're doing skype and facetime sessions at her work, if anyone needs to call the number is

01268 293799

[jonbxx]

Seeing as this virus seems to adversely affect the elderly, one question popped up in my head - how does the mortality risk from a coronavirus infection compare to the mortality risk of simply being old? Or, put another way (and yes, this is dispassionate) is being old in itself and underlying health condition?

Well I finally found an article on this - https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-...t-4539118e1196

It seems, on average, a coronavirus infection packs a year worth of risk of mortality in to around a week! There are some outliers for example, the very young (0-9 years old) having a relatively high mortality with little coronavirus risk and it seems like the 60-69 year age bracket run the most additional risk. Note that underlying health conditions apart from simply being old are not taken into account...

[nomadking]

The term "underlying health conditions" should be qualified with the word "known", ie "known underlying health conditions".

If somebody is suffering from high blood pressure and are treated for it, doesn't that suggest they now don't have high blood pressure? So is the actual risk from untreated high BP, or treated high BP, or is it connected to the underlying reason for the high BP?

Too many suggestions(backed by evidence) of contradictory advice that might be helpful or might be harmful. Difficult to discuss those without the heavy risk of people following the wrong route or going to extremes. Eg In Iran the notion of alcohol fixing it, has led to hundreds of people being killed by methanol or ethanol poisoning.

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Seeing as this virus seems to adversely affect the elderly, one question popped up in my head - how does the mortality risk from a coronavirus infection compare to the mortality risk of simply being old? Or, put another way (and yes, this is dispassionate) is being old in itself and underlying health condition?

Well I finally found an article on this - https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-...t-4539118e1196

It seems, on average, a coronavirus infection packs a year worth of risk of mortality in to around a week! There are some outliers for example, the very young (0-9 years old) having a relatively high mortality with little coronavirus risk and it seems like the 60-69 year age bracket run the most additional risk. Note that underlying health conditions apart from simply being old are not taken into account...

I’d like to thank you for that cheery information.

I’d like to...

(j/k -all additional info welcomed)

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

The other half is a therapist, they're doing skype and facetime sessions at her work, if anyone needs to call the number is

01268 293799

Thank you, much appreciated


A doctor's surgery in Wales has sent out a letter to patients with cancer etc telling them that they would be unlikely to get hospital treatment if they caught the virus:

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ients-18012444

[denphone]

Another 563 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - bringing the total number of deaths to 2,352.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...2-352-11966771

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...37119721230340

Originally Posted by denphone

Another 563 people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus - bringing the total number of deaths to 2,352.

As always, beware of raw numbers, they are always careful to state people died & tested positive, not that they died because of the virus.

Its a small but important difference.

One of the slight disadvantages if the person you’re living with is on a video call at work, whilst at home....

I just walked bollock-naked into my wife’s work video call

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Mick

One of the slight disadvantages if the person you’re living with is on a video call at work, whilst at home....

[Hom3r]

I've had to stop listening to the news, especially as my mum has the Coronavirus, and is currently in the local hospital Coronavirus ward, and noe one can visit her.

Not only that when she eventually get moved to another ward we still may not be able to see her as the hospital is not allowing any visitors.

What scares me more is the fact my mum had her spleen removed and has a low immune system and in a high risk group.

[ThunderPants73]

Originally Posted by Chris

Please be cautious. For a start the article does not say he was healthy. The family is quoted as saying to the best of their knowledge he had no underlying health issues. Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. The point is, there is quite enough stress caused over this pandemic already, without people rushing onto internet forums just so they can get a thrill out of being the first to share bad news. Let the science lead your understanding of this illness. Do not rush ahead of it. And certainly don't recklessly misrepresent the articles you're quoting.

Second, there is a useful piece about the significance of viral load that has been doing the rounds. I'm pretty sure I've seen it quoted in here and I have also seen it on Facebook. The initial dose of virus particles that you get, makes a difference as to the severity of the infection you develop. Covid-19 becomes lethal if a significant infection develops deep in the lungs. This happens when the body's immune system can't work fast enough to keep up with the rate of infection. A person weakened by another health condition or with a compromised immune system is vulnerable in this way. Someone who receives a heavy initial does of the virus is also more vulnerable.

So factors such as the boy's home environment, how prolonged was his exposure, and to what form of contamination, are all very relevant. It is quite possible that he has been coughed over by a dozen only mildly infectious people, if he lives in a large household or if his family has flouted hand hygiene or social distancing guidance.

The statistics, even from the early days in China, have shown that even young people *can* die from this infection. That is not news. And it should be stated again and again that the chances of someone younger than their 50s dying of it are very, very small.

[Hom3r]

Also a 2nd cousin on my dads side is burying her mum today, but sadly only a very limited number are allowed to attend.