Government & Post Election Discussion

[1andrew1]

It's interesting to hear from one of our EU allies, Denmark. Put your head back in the sand anyone who's sensitive to analysis of the British Government.

Infighting among the Conservatives has forced UK Prime Minister Theresa May into negotiations with various people and factions that all hold differing and seemingly irreconcilable views on Britain's exit from the European Union. May has reached the point where she is making contradictory commitments, and any semblance of consistency was lost long ago under the weight of these blurred promises.
The problem is not whether a contender will challenge May for leadership of the Conservative party or if a general election will be called. The problem is that Britain has become ungovernable. Members of parliament are opting for turf fighting and stubborn pursuit of policies without regard to national interests. This state of affairs will spread to practically all major political questions. Last week's turmoil in the Conservative party about how to finance an extra £25bn in funding for the National Health Service by 2023 and May's request that her defence minister justify Britain's status (and expenses) as a 'tier one' military power are dark omens.

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/comme...to-uk-economy/

[Carth]

An interesting analysis that tells us nothing new.

A 14 year old could have trawled through this very thread and given the same analysis from what's been posted in it

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Very strange statement ...

You know full well that it was her decision and her's alone to call the General Election that reduced her ability to make serious decisions and, consequently, led to the current near civil war within her party at a time when the country is on a precipice. You couldn't make it up ..

Well, I won't argue with that - it was a misjudgement, all things considered. But she called an election in the expectation she would get a resounding majority, which would have given her a much easier means of achieving Brexit. Sadly, this did not happen.

Good call, badly executed.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by Damien

I also don't think invoking WW2 is helpful here anyway.

I didn't think so, either.

Then IDS came out with his opinion on the whole matter:

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-brex...ement-11419694

He wrote: "Before World War II, as the historian Andrew Roberts has pointed out, the Federation of British Industries - the forerunner of the CBI - supported both the Gold Standard (which, in its constraints on a government's ability to manage the economy is an instrument of jobs destruction), and the appeasement of Nazi Germany.

"Between 1937 and 1939, while the Nazis were opening their concentration camps, the FBI oversaw the creation of no fewer than 33 separate agreements between British and German business groups."

Again, I took it too personally from Old Boy. Little did I know that rather than thinking for himself, he was just taking talking points from CCHQ.

Guess that it wasn't his fault, after all.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's interesting to hear from one of our EU allies, Denmark. Put your head back in the sand anyone who's sensitive to analysis of the British Government.

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/comme...to-uk-economy/

It is just the usual rantings of a political commentator. Why should you believe such people rather than your own Government?

Oh, yes, you are batting for the other side so disruption and sowing the seeds of doubt are the name of the game!

Silly me!

---------- Post added at 19:25 ---------- Previous post was at 19:21 ----------

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

I didn't think so, either.

Then IDS came out with his opinion on the whole matter:

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-brex...ement-11419694



Again, I took it too personally from Old Boy. Little did I know that rather than thinking for himself, he was just taking talking points from CCHQ.

Guess that it wasn't his fault, after all.

Now, now, Chloé, and I was beginning to like you!

I never did welcome you to the forum, but belatedly, welcome! Your views are appreciated, although I'm not sure how often we will have a meeting of minds!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is just the usual rantings of a political commentator. Why should you believe such people rather than your own Government?

Oh, yes, you are batting for the other side so disruption and sowing the seeds of doubt are the name of the game!

Silly me!

Do you honestly think the government is not as divided as the article states? I can only hope that best case scenario, you're being humorous

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Do you honestly think the government is not as divided as the article states? I can only hope that best case scenario, you're being humorous

Yes, both main political parties ate divided. So what?

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, both main political parties ate divided. So what?

"So what?" A small distinction that one Party is trying to decide the future of the country for a generation or more.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by ianch99

"So what?" A small distinction that one Party is trying to decide the future of the country for a generation or more.

That's quite a lot of responsibility for those six DUP MPs, Ian!

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by ianch99

"So what?" A small distinction that one Party is trying to decide the future of the country for a generation or more.

Well, I hope you will join me in applauding Theresa May when she announces the deal that so many pessimists and remainers say she will never get, and despite the odds you mention!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, I hope you will join me in applauding Theresa May when she announces the deal that so many pessimists and remainers say she will never get, and despite the odds you mention!

I think if Ian and I both clapped loudly we'd be still be drowned out by your applause and cheering

On a more serious, it appears that if Theresa May ups her game and faces down the Brextremists in her party, the chances of a trade deal increase. So will you be cheering for BoJo or Therese May on this issue, Old Boy?

EU leaders offer Brexit compromise if May confronts Eurosceptics
EU leaders have called on Theresa May to confront the Eurosceptics in her cabinet, as they raised the stakes ahead of a likely showdown between the UK premier and her senior ministers next week.
The bloc’s other members told Mrs May at a Brussels summit they would respond positively if she shifted her “red lines” on Brexit in crucial talks at her Chequers country retreat next Friday...
Mrs May is expected next week to push her cabinet to adopt a white paper committing the UK to staying close to the EU’s customs union and single market in goods — with a looser relationship for services — to minimise the economic risks of Brexit.

https://www.ft.com/content/2ec6ec00-...-1e1a0846c475?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think if Ian and I both clapped loudly we'd be still be drowned out by your applause and cheering

On a more serious, it appears that if Theresa May ups her game and faces down the Brextremists in her party, the chances of a trade deal increase. So will you be cheering for BoJo or Therese May on this issue, Old Boy?

https://www.ft.com/content/2ec6ec00-...-1e1a0846c475?

It isn't as easy as that, Andrew. The Brexiteer members of the Cabinet are keeping TM atuned to their objectives because otherwise the remainers would wear her down. I am sure that whatever the actual shape of the eventual deal, we will exit the Customs Union for the simple reason that we want to expand our trade outside the EU. The Cabinet is united on its present position, but neither side want to give ground. However, both will have to compromise to a certain extent to get this right.

It is the EU way and negotiating tactic to try and wear people down well into the eleventh hour of negotiations so they get the best deal available - nobody should be surprised that this is taking so long. One of TM's cards is to convince the EU negotiators of the difficulty she faces at home in giving anything away at all, and that reality will focus minds at the EU not to demand too much of her.

This negotiation is a multi-faceted one and most of us do not understand all the intricaces of it, so we cannot second guess the way the government is going to land this agreement, but I am absolutely convinced that they will.

The EU don't want a 'no deal' any more than we do.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It isn't as easy as that, Andrew. The Brexiteer members of the Cabinet are keeping TM atuned to their objectives because otherwise the remainers would wear her down. I am sure that whatever the actual shape of the eventual deal, we will exit the Customs Union for the simple reason that we want to expand our trade outside the EU. The Cabinet is united on its present position, but neither side want to give ground. However, both will have to compromise to a certain extent to get this right.

The EU has said the UK can compromise on one front : allow NI to remain in the CU / have access to the SM to avoid a hard border.

That is it.

It is the EU way and negotiating tactic to try and wear people down well into the eleventh hour of negotiations so they get the best deal available - nobody should be surprised that this is taking so long.

Okay, but what if they don't succumb and offer anything? We've just wasted 2 to 3 years of British productivity and time for no good reason then.

There was a good article on May's ability to compromise...I can't remember where it was or I would link to it but it basically went along the lines of:

May and the EU negotiated on ECJ oversight for EU citizens and May said that there should be no oversight. In the end, both sides agreed that there would be oversight.

May and the EU negotiated on access to the SM without free movement and May said she would be willing to stay in the SM for goods but not services. In the end both sides agreed that the UK will be leaving the SM.

May and the EU negotiated on a divorce bill with many in the UK saying that the UK may not owe a cent / penny / Euro etc and the EU saying that the UK could be on the hook for 50 billion. In the end, both sides agreed to 40 million.

May and the EU negotiated on the length of the transition period. May had wanted 24 months or more and the EU said not a day over 18 months. In the end, both sides agreed to 18 months.

May and the EU negotiated the idea of concurrent trade talks while formalizing the Irish border issue. May said both could be done at the same time and the EU said the Trade agreements would come at the end of the progress on the Irish border issue. In the end, both sides agreed to discuss trade right at the end of the talks.

There were like 300 examples...the paper may have been the Guardian but to me it showed how unilateral / self executing her negotiation strategy is. In subservience, to the EU. If she didn't go through the first part of her nonsensical "negotiations" talking points, I would give her credit for at least being grounded in reality. (Though some have disputed that she needs to give the nationalists within her party some lip service from time to time, when she doesn't believe in it).

I agree that nobody should be surprised as to how long the talks are taking. I hope though that you will agree with me that nobody should be surprised as to how little the talks achieve, too. Unless May agrees to every single one of the EU's terms ; because they are setting the rules on everything through these discussions.

One of TM's cards is to convince the EU negotiators of the difficulty she faces at home in giving anything away at all, and that reality will focus minds at the EU not to demand too much of her.

Ahh, so really they want to ask even more of her but she has to show that she is weak at home. Makes sense, it is the truth after all - hardly a cunning ploy of brilliant subterfuge given it's rather frank honesty and it does work to their advantage, too - never will they get so weak and pathetic a leader to take for a ride, as her. Best for them to keep her in Number 10, too I suppose.

One thing though...at the beginning of her stint of grand delusions why did she go about life with the whole "strong and stable" stuff?



Also, if she is willing to be honest with the EU about how weak she is but continues to lie through her teeth to the UK public then does she not think more of EU diplomats / bureaucrats than the UK public?

Tsk tsk tsk...

This negotiation is a multi-faceted one and most of us do not understand all the intricaces of it, so we cannot second guess the way the government is going to land this agreement, but I am absolutely convinced that they will.

This goes back to the whole "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" line...only junior ministers are already admitting that they have agreed to stuff. Like the divorce bill.

The EU don't want a 'no deal' any more than we do.

Correct, they want a deal entirely on their terms, let's see if they get it I suppose.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

...
May and the EU negotiated on ECJ oversight for EU citizens and May said that there should be no oversight. In the end, both sides agreed that there would be oversight.

May and the EU negotiated on access to the SM without free movement and May said she would be willing to stay in the SM for goods but not services. In the end both sides agreed that the UK will be leaving the SM.

May and the EU negotiated on a divorce bill with many in the UK saying that the UK may not owe a cent / penny / Euro etc and the EU saying that the UK could be on the hook for 50 billion. In the end, both sides agreed to 40 million.

May and the EU negotiated on the length of the transition period. May had wanted 24 months or more and the EU said not a day over 18 months. In the end, both sides agreed to 18 months.

May and the EU negotiated the idea of concurrent trade talks while formalizing the Irish border issue. May said both could be done at the same time and the EU said the Trade agreements would come at the end of the progress on the Irish border issue. In the end, both sides agreed to discuss trade right at the end of the talks...

Correct, they want a deal entirely on their terms, let's see if they get it I suppose.

This is the reality of the negotiations to date. How anyone can feel Theresa May is doing a good job here apart from the EU is beyond me.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

This is the reality of the negotiations to date. How anyone can feel Theresa May is doing a good job here apart from the EU is beyond me.

Its called rose tinted optimism Andrew..