Iran attacks Israel

Originally Posted by jfman

Were the hospitals actually a thing? I only ever saw IDF staged photos so chalked it up with the 40 beheaded babies under "things that didn't happen". Of course there were empty tunnels the Israelis built themselves in the 80s.

I bet the lads at Langley would never use a consulate as a cover.

Again, norms … everyone’s intelligence agency has staff in its embassies and consulates around the world. Intelligence officers are however civilian, not military. They don’t plan military operations and they don’t command soldiers.

‘Israel built the tunnels’ is one of the more entertaining lines to have come out of Hamas, isn’t it.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Again, norms … everyone’s intelligence agency has staff in its embassies and consulates around the world. Intelligence officers are however civilian, not military. They don’t plan military operations and they don’t command soldiers.

Probably semantics for whatever Government is being overthrown by the CIA at a given time.

‘Israel built the tunnels’ is one of the more entertaining lines to have come out of Hamas, isn’t it.

Did they not build at least some of the tunnel and bunker infrastructure under hospitals that were constructed during Israeli occupation?

Originally Posted by jfman

Probably semantics for whatever Government is being overthrown by the CIA at a given time.

Good grief.

You really need a new tin foil hat, the current one seems to be failing.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

For Iran, perhaps. There’s no way it can ultimately come off best in an encounter like this. It looks like a desperate throw of the dice - I’m sure they thought provoking Israel to go wild in Gaza would have resulted in it suffering serious international consequences by now, but it seems to have concluded if you want a job doing, best do it yourself.

I believe US intelligence said that Iran had no pre-warning of the 7 October attack. Not that they would have objected to it.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I believe US intelligence said that Iran had no pre-warning of the 7 October attack. Not that they would have objected to it.

Yes, I’m sure the organisational flow chart has only a dotted reporting line from Gaza back to Tehran. Iran’s strategy has been ‘strategic ambiguity.’ We know they’re behind it, they know we know they’re behind it, but they prefer (until now) for there to be a lack of hard evidence that they're behind it.

Note that this week, most of the Arab states that would once have gleefully helped bomb Israel to pieces all lined up to help bring down Iran’s attack. Saudi Arabia is only waiting for the Gaza situation to die down before quietly signing the treaty with Israel they have long been working on.

This long ceased to be what we used to call the ‘Arab-Israeli dispute’. Palestine’s ongoing instability and especially Hamas’ continuing brutal rule in Gaza is all Iran’s work. Their money, their training. Have no doubt a reckoning is coming - Israel knows it is going to have to deal with the problem at source sooner or later, and I wouldn’t bet too heavily against them looking to address it sooner, given this week’s developments.

[tweetiepooh]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348


Interesting read - snippets

Many Iranians also see the Iran-Israel confrontation now emerging from the shadows as being orchestrated by the Iranian government rather than reflective of the will of the Iranian people.
...
Some graffiti has appeared on walls in Iranian cities - "Israel, strike the supreme leader's [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's] house," reads one. "Israel hit them, they lack the courage to retaliate," read another.
...
"I believe it was the right decision to attack Israel to prevent further killings of Iranian commanders in Syria and elsewhere," one woman said in a voice message sent to BBC Persian.


But another said: "Iranians themselves are in a state of war with the current regime. We harbour no animosity towards any nation, including Israel."

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68823348
Interesting read - snippets

Indeed. The best route to improve Israel's security would be to take the Ayatollah out, his replacement can't be worse.

[jfman]

Well something has happened, although nobody seems to know what. Israel saying nothing. Iran downplaying.

Originally Posted by jfman

Well something has happened, although nobody seems to know what. Israel saying nothing. Iran downplaying.

My guess is that Israel has opted for a technology demonstration, cutting through Iran’s defences and hitting something precious to them with maybe only a single missile. Just enough to show Iran what will happen to it unless it pipes down. Quite the power play, if so.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Indeed. The best route to improve Israel's security would be to take the Ayatollah out, his replacement can't be worse.

Regime change, to a less hardcore Islamic government would transform the region. Young Iranians are not into Islamism.

I doubt it could happen but you live in hope.