Coronavirus

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Really?

Even if we vaccinate at the rate of a million per week, it will take over a year to hit 70% of the population (herd immunity levels)

And the CMOs say there will be vaccine shortages for the next couple of months.

https://www.ft.com/content/d97c72c5-...c-9cc10b21f007

We’re not going from a standing start. 2.5M have already tested positive.

Statistical analysis suggest up 19M may have had it. (That was back in May, the accuracy of the method used has been questioned but still, the number will be a large number)

https://fullfact.org/health/19m-coronavirus-manchester/

So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.

So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)

70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Are there plague ridden kids running round in the food factory?

Not where my brother works although its not a food factory but it has very strict Covid measures which up to now have worked very well.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

We’re not going from a standing start. 2.5M have already tested positive.

Statistical analysis suggest up 19M may have had it. (That was back in May, the accuracy of the method used has been questioned but still, the number will be a large number)

https://fullfact.org/health/19m-coronavirus-manchester/

So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.

So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)

70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us.

While the analysis is sound there’s other factors - there will be overlap between the “already infected” and vaccinated groups whether the former is as high as 20m or not. If immunity starts to dwindle after a year (again this is only a guess) a significant proportion of the already infected from the first wave will lose immunity in the next 26 weeks. If the vast majority are getting a vaccine only proven to be 62% effective this pushes the “all done” date back further.

Originally Posted by Pierre

So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.

So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)

70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us.

That would be great, if we actually knew who those 20M were, but we dont, so we will still have to vaccinate them anyway.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, why not just ignore the electorate altogether, jfman? There’s a need for a balanced view, but you are taking an unrealistic hard line medical approach, which just won’t wash.

Anyway, time to get positive, if this forum can muster up enough positivity. We have a vaccine, it’s being delivered in order of priority and the virus will be under control within weeks.

I get Maggy’s concern about infections being rife in schools, but children are largely unaffected by the virus. Vulnerable people need to keep isolated as much as possible in the meantime until they get their jabs, which will be administered within weeks.

We will be able to look forward to a return to normality this spring/summer, with the removal of all restrictions. Good news at last, just waiting now for all your downsides....

---------- Post added at 11:21 ---------- Previous post was at 11:15 ----------

My flawed idea?

The idea of protecting the vulnerable reduces the number of people it infects! Lockdowns only slow the virus, but it will go on to infect the same number of people in the end, (when the lockdown measures are relaxed again) but over a longer timescale, which is more dangerous.

Fortunately, the vaccine gives us more options now.

However children can and do pass all infections out to the wider world when they leave the hallowed halls of education.They are very good at that.

Originally Posted by Pierre

We’re not going from a standing start. 2.5M have already tested positive.

Statistical analysis suggest up 19M may have had it. (That was back in May, the accuracy of the method used has been questioned but still, the number will be a large number)

https://fullfact.org/health/19m-coronavirus-manchester/

So it is quite reasonable to suggest around 20M, have had it.

So we would be starting from 30% of the population having immunity through infection ( not even taking into account those already immune)

70% would be 46M, so 26M at a 1M = 26 weeks, all done by June with a fair wind behind us.

Agreed, but that’s not "within weeks"...

Looking at the ONS numbers from late last month, they estimate

645,800 people (95% credible interval: 610,100 to 683,100) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...24december2020

Those figures seem low to me - is that just that week?

Re-reading it, yes, it is.

Statista puts the cumulative total at 2.3 million.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ses-in-the-uk/

[jfman]

Is the infection survey not measuring who had it within the time period as opposed to since the start of the outbreak? As a crude analysis assuming you’d have it/test positive for a two week window it’s about a million people a month.

Also Statista are using confirmed positives (so less likely to count asymptomatics who wouldn’t be tested) - ONS are estimating prevalence in the population at a given time based upon their random sampling.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s your perpetual defeatism over lockdown/waiting for vaccines that contributes most of the negativity, Old Boy.

You claim that treating a pandemic as a health issue won’t wash when restrictions are still well supported by the public as a whole. I must have missed the referendum on it, but as I’m sure you are aware we aren’t a direct democracy in any case.

I’d hoped you’d learned not to clutch at optimistic straw after optimistic straw throughout the pandemic but evidently not. The removal of all restrictions is very unrealistic in the timeframe you propose.



As I say, your flawed idea.

A comment that shows that you still haven’t grasped what I am advocating.

---------- Post added at 14:32 ---------- Previous post was at 14:29 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

It is all a bit statistical but mutations happen when the virus reproduces so the more generations of virus reproduction that occur, the more mutations will be seen. However, mutations are random (on the whole, some sites are more likely to have issues than others in the virus genome) A mutation can happen at generation 1 or generation 1 billion. Some mutations will be silent with no change whatsoever in the virus, some will render the virus inactive and some can change the virus behaviour.

Here are some numbers...

The SARS-COV-2 genome is roughly 30,000 letters long and the mutation rate is 10^-4 per letter per year so, on average, there will be 3 mutations across the whole genome in 1 year. BUT, this assumes that the disease is not infectious. If one person infects another, then you double the number of virus reproductions and so the numbers of mutations double. If they infect others, the number of reproductions increase along with this.

Because lockdowns reduces the number of infections, it reduces the number of viral reproduction cycles and will therefore reduce the numbers of mutations. If someone catches the disease and the virus develops a really nasty mutation but they don’t infect anyone due to lockdowns and isolation, that strain becomes extinct.

Hope this makes sense!

Except that they don’t. They slow the process, that is all.

---------- Post added at 14:34 ---------- Previous post was at 14:32 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Really?

Even if we vaccinate at the rate of a million per week, it will take over a year to hit 70% of the population (herd immunity levels)

And the CMOs say there will be vaccine shortages for the next couple of months.

https://www.ft.com/content/d97c72c5-...c-9cc10b21f007

It won’t take anywhere near that long to vaccinate the vulnerable. That will drastically reduce hospital admissions and remove the need for restrictions.

[pip08456]

Sage advice regarding schools, minutes published 31/12/20

11.It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.

12.It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with both primary and secondary schools closed,would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January.

Link

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

A comment that shows that you still haven’t grasped what I am advocating.

---------- Post added at 14:32 ---------- Previous post was at 14:29 ----------


Except that they don’t. They slow the process, that is all.

---------- Post added at 14:34 ---------- Previous post was at 14:32 ----------



It won’t take anywhere near that long to vaccinate the vulnerable. That will drastically reduce hospital admissions and remove the need for restrictions.

One of the most enlightening aspects of this pandemic has been finding out just how many people on the internet are expert virologists who have also somehow found time to gain expertise in public health policy. Truly our nation is blessed to be so highly skilled.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

A comment that shows that you still haven’t grasped what I am advocating.

---------- Post added at 14:32 ---------- Previous post was at 14:29 ----------


Except that they don’t. They slow the process, that is all.

---------- Post added at 14:34 ---------- Previous post was at 14:32 ----------



It won’t take anywhere near that long to vaccinate the vulnerable. That will drastically reduce hospital admissions and remove the need for restrictions.

Your shield-the-vulnerable-only scenario was tackled and founding wanting last year.

---------- Post added at 14:51 ---------- Previous post was at 14:47 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

One of the most enlightening aspects of this pandemic has been finding out just how many people on the internet are expert virologists who have also somehow found time to gain expertise in public health policy. Truly our nation is blessed to be so highly skilled.

Underestimate the nation's internet warriors' abilities to pivot from being experts at global trade, to electoral fraud in distant lands through to pandemics at your own cost.

[pip08456]

Just came across this too.

[papa smurf]

A HEADTEACHERS' union has launched legal action against the government demanding all schools shut after London primaries closed.

Lawyers for the National Association of Headteachers (NAHT) and the Association of School and College Leaders are set to demand the government shows data proving schools are safe to reopen as Covid cases surge.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/136281...-legal-action/

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

A HEADTEACHERS' union has launched legal action against the government demanding all schools shut after London primaries closed.

Lawyers for the National Association of Headteachers (NAHT) and the Association of School and College Leaders are set to demand the government shows data proving schools are safe to reopen as Covid cases surge.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/136281...-legal-action/

Surely the argument would be for them to prove all schools are “unsafe”

Originally Posted by pip

11.It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.

12.It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with both primary and secondary schools closed,would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January.

So keep them open until you do know then.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Surely the argument would be for them to prove all schools are “unsafe”

So keep them open until you do know then.

Alternatively close them rather than take the risk. Assess the difference in transmission vs December.