Britain outside the EU

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Barny was quite clear that he said the full invasion last year wouldn't have happened

None of the war studies academics I’m following have made such a claim, and one of them will be a Lib Dem candidate at the next election (Mike Martin, @ThreshedThought on the Twitters).

Forgive me for dismissing the views of career Europhiles trying to big up their part.

Brexit obviously didn't pay much, if any, part in Putin's decision. If so then why invade in 2014? Why wait so long after Brexit to do it? Why make the EU the deciding factor rather than NATO?

Putin banked on a divided West I think but that could more likely have been a misreading that Biden's exit from Afghanistan showed he was continuing Trump's isolationist skew in American foreign policy and therefore they wouldn't have the will to back Ukraine. Maybe he interpreted Brexit as evidence of Britain disengaging from the world but that would have been an idiotic view that any half-competent analyst would have warmed him against.

He clearly wasn't expecting this unity from the West nor the resistance from the Ukrainian people but it's hard to draw the line from Brexit to that other than Brexit is just one of several things you could point to show a general picture of a divided West.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

Maybe he interpreted Brexit as evidence of Britain disengaging from the world but that would have been an idiotic view that any half-competent analyst would have warmed him against.

Would you have warned him, people who don't tell him what he wants to hear or displease him seem to end up falling out of windows

He clearly wasn't expecting this unity from the West nor the resistance from the Ukrainian people but it's hard to draw the line from Brexit to that other than Brexit is just one of several things you could point to show a general picture of a divided West.

Which is exactly the point Barney was making, interestingly he also pointed out there were plenty of people in America who were delighted we'd made ourselves and the EU weaker too

[1andrew1]

Rishi Sunak faces crunch decision on post-Brexit Northern Ireland

Deal takes shape on trading arrangements but unionists and Eurosceptics still need to be brought on board

Rishi Sunak is facing a big test of his authority as he agonises over whether he can sell an outline deal on the Northern Ireland protocol to pro-UK unionist politicians in the region and Eurosceptic Tory MPs.

After months of talks, negotiators have briefed the UK prime minister that a deal is taking shape to resolve the dispute over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland. “It’s getting close,” said one person briefed on the talks.

Downing Street has insisted that no deal has been reached, adding that “intensive scoping discussions” were still taking place.

Tory Eurosceptics warned they would not accept any deal that left the European Court of Justice with any role in UK territory: under the protocol Northern Ireland remains part of the EU single market for goods.

One Conservative MP said Boris Johnson would be at the forefront of a rebellion if Sunak gave too much ground. Johnson’s spokesperson insisted the former premier was “fully supporting the government”...

The prime minister wants to end the corrosive dispute with the EU, which has damaged relations between the two sides, including blocking British scientists participating in the €95bn Horizon Europe research project.

https://www.ft.com/content/fc7c076e-...b-bc9213926814

[ianch99]

Very disturbing finding, albeit not unexpected:

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

Oxford and Cambridge universities, once given more than £130m a year in total by European research programmes, are now getting £1m annually between them

Without investment in research funding, all that flows from this is in peril.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Very disturbing finding, albeit not unexpected:

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge



Without investment in research funding, all that flows from this is in peril.

Don'tcha know we don't like experts anymore, besides which where even is Oxbridge

Plus for every remoaner scare story there's a brexit dividend that's completely ignored, thanks to our South Korean trade deal pork sales could be worth as much as £200k per year

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Very disturbing finding, albeit not unexpected:

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

Without investment in research funding, all that flows from this is in peril.

We can rejoin the Horizon science programme and get some of this money back *if* we and the EU can come to a deal on Northern Ireland. This may necessitate Sunak squaring up to the ERG.

Let's hope he steps up.

[Sephiroth]

A deal on NI is challenging. A way has to be found to narrow the ECJ's writ on UK soil. That they should rule on interpretation of EU law is reasonable on the face of it; but who calls in the ECJ is the problem.

EU law applies to the single market aspects of goods arriving into NI. The solution may be as simple as a Union Flag flying over the green lane and the EU flag flying over the red lane!

[RichardCoulter]

It was reported on the BBC earlier that Boris Johnson was in favour of Ukraine joining the EU.

If he is so against the EU, why would he be in favour of Ukraine joining it?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

It was reported on the BBC earlier that Boris Johnson was in favour of Ukrania joining the EU.

If he is so against the EU, why would he be in favour of Ukrania joining it?

It is a little bizarre. At this rate, he'll be advocating for the UK to rejoin and adopt the Euro before we can say Partygate!

BTW I think your spell checker has mangled the spelling of Ukraine.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It is a little bizarre. At this rate, he'll be advocating for the UK to rejoin and adopt the Euro before we can say Partygate!

BTW I think your spell checker has mangled the spelling of Ukraine.

Thanks, it's now been corrected

[1andrew1]

Interesting that politicians are lagging voters. I don't blame them for being cautious though!

Brexit could be reversed — here’s how

Opinion is shifting but the public are running ahead of the politicians

Seven years after the 2016 referendum, and three years after Brexit actually happened, opinion has shifted markedly. As the academic Matthew Goodwin wrote recently, some 60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum. An average of recent polls shows 58 per cent of voters not only regretting Brexit, but actively favouring Rejoin.

It is easy to understand why. Brexit was sold as a way of controlling immigration and improving the NHS. But the NHS is now in far worse shape than it was in 2016. Immigration into the UK remains very high, with EU immigrants largely replaced by people from outside the bloc. And the IMF predicts that Britain will have the worst performing economy in the developed world this year.

Demographics and economics suggest that the Rejoin sentiment will strengthen over time. Young voters are the most pro-EU of the lot, with 79 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds wanting to rejoin. And, sadly, the damage done to the UK economy by Brexit is likely to become increasingly evident.

https://www.ft.com/content/0d195d46-...f-c33889bb2cc0

[Sephiroth]

I completely understand what the FT is saying, particularly that EU immigrants are being replaced by immigrants from elsewhere.

This is a very difficult matter. The Guvmin, being incompetent, let this happen by not lining up the legal ducks in primary legislation. The worst of it is that our British culture is being frayed at the edges and the Police are gearing up for London being a majority non-white city in the near future - with all the cultural clashes that could bring.

Rejoining the EU might have to be on their terms, perhaps even so in their march to federalism. We could prolly get away with keeping the pound and the laughing stock element would dissipate quickly, imo.

But the central reason for leaving, namely to get away from Brussels diktat, would have been squashed. This is the UK, and a more competent government could incentivise the economy to be successful and that is what we need - not to rejoin the EU.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I completely understand what the FT is saying, particularly that EU immigrants are being replaced by immigrants from elsewhere.

This is a very difficult matter. The Guvmin, being incompetent, let this happen by not lining up the legal ducks in primary legislation. The worst of it is that our British culture is being frayed at the edges and the Police are gearing up for London being a majority non-white city in the near future - with all the cultural clashes that could bring.

Rejoining the EU might have to be on their terms, perhaps even so in their march to federalism. We could prolly get away with keeping the pound and the laughing stock element would dissipate quickly, imo.

But the central reason for leaving, namely to get away from Brussels diktat, would have been squashed. This is the UK, and a more competent government could incentivise the economy to be successful and that is what we need - not to rejoin the EU.

[Sephiroth]

If Hugh disagrees with me, he's fooling himself.