Liberal Democrats comfortably take North Shropshire

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

BoJo’s defeat last night was so big, perhaps you failed to notice Labour not winning last night (and maki g a 10 point loss on their 2019 performance). Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Leader of the Opposition.

The old tactical vote came into play and Labour only half heartedly campaigned. Your favourite rag the Guardian was advising voters to vote Lib. If voters are waking up to tactical voting it definitely is good night Tory Boys

Originally Posted by Mr K

The old tactical vote came into play and Labour only half heartedly campaigned. Your favourite rag the Guardian was advising voters to vote Lib. If voters are waking up to tactical voting it definitely is good night Tory Boys

Yeah …. I’m not convinced. Tactical voting almost never occurs to such a massive extent in British elections, and certainly not when the outcome is a mid-term by election that won’t affect the parliamentary arithmetic in the slightest. This is a huge vote against Boris Johnson and a very serious wake-up call for his party which must now decide if it wants him to continue as leader. But it isn’t an endorsement of the Labour Party in any way. There’s nothing in last night’s result that can possibly support your claim that Starmer is “electable”.

[jfman]

Surely tactical voting is most likely to happen when it won’t affect anything?

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

Yeah …. I’m not convinced. Tactical voting almost never occurs to such a massive extent in British elections, and certainly not when the outcome is a mid-term by election that won’t affect the parliamentary arithmetic in the slightest. This is a huge vote against Boris Johnson and a very serious wake-up call for his party which must now decide if it wants him to continue as leader. But it isn’t an endorsement of the Labour Party in any way. There’s nothing in last night’s result that can possibly support your claim that Starmer is “electable”.

Have you seen the latest national opinion polls?

As ever in elections, its not about who you want, but who you don't want.

Originally Posted by Chris

Yeah …. I’m not convinced. Tactical voting almost never occurs to such a massive extent in British elections, and certainly not when the outcome is a mid-term by election that won’t affect the parliamentary arithmetic in the slightest. This is a huge vote against Boris Johnson and a very serious wake-up call for his party which must now decide if it wants him to continue as leader. But it isn’t an endorsement of the Labour Party in any way. There’s nothing in last night’s result that can possibly support your claim that Starmer is “electable”.

I think it's hard to explain why this result breaks with the national polling so abruptly without anti-Tory voters tactically voting. We saw this happen Chesham and Amersham, we saw the reverse happening in Bexley.

It doesn't make any sense that Labour would lose 10 points on their 2019 result, one of their worse since the war, yet nationally be polling at some of their next numbers since they lost in 2010 whilst the Liberal Democrats outperform their national polling by quite some margin. Tactical voting is in play here. And it's more likely, not less likely, to happen in a by-election anyway. By-Elections tend to produce weirder results than the national election.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Have you seen the latest national opinion polls?

As ever in elections, its not about who you want, but who you don't want.

Have you? Last night’s result bears no resemblance to them at all.

Boris’ card is marked now. Let’s wait and see how electable the country thinks Starmer is once he’s been defenestrated and replaced with someone who looks a bit more grounded.

[jonbxx]

I saw an interesting point on another forum regarding potential choices of a next leader of the Conservative Party. The votes in the last general election for the Conservatives broadly come from four factions;

1. Traditional 'One Nation' conservatives
2. The right wingers who would have voted for the Reform Party until Nigel Farage stood them down
3. The Red Wall who didn't want Jeremy Corbyn and/or wanted Brexit done
4. The non-politically engaged who like Boris Johnson as he seemed 'a bit of a laugh' or 'one of us'

Anyone who appeals to 1 such as Sunak or Hunt wouldn't appeal to 3 and 4. Anyone who appeals to 2 such as maybe Priti Patel might get a few people from 1 and 3 but opens up a very Lib Dem shaped hole in the political landscape. Someone who appeals to 3 needs to charm former Labour voters again and will lose from 1 and 2. Someone who appeals to 4 loses the other three as I think there's a need for someone serious in place.

In summary, Boris Johnson did a really good job at bringing these factions together and can't think of anyone else who could do this right now. Without Boris Johnson, I still think the Conservatives would have won last election but the majority would have been significantly smaller.

Urgh, need a shower after praising Boris Johnson!!

[1andrew1]

What I'm disappointed about is that when Cummins left, Johnson brought in an experienced pair of hands to run No 10. This does not seem to have worked out in any way shape or form.

---------- Post added at 10:24 ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Have you? Last night’s result bears no resemblance to them at all.

Boris’ card is marked now. Let’s wait and see how electable the country thinks Starmer is once he’s been defenestrated and replaced with someone who looks a bit more grounded.

By that stage, the distraction of Covid should be gone too.

---------- Post added at 10:29 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I saw an interesting point on another forum regarding potential choices of a next leader of the Conservative Party. The votes in the last general election for the Conservatives broadly come from four factions;

1. Traditional 'One Nation' conservatives
2. The right wingers who would have voted for the Reform Party until Nigel Farage stood them down
3. The Red Wall who didn't want Jeremy Corbyn and/or wanted Brexit done
4. The non-politically engaged who like Boris Johnson as he seemed 'a bit of a laugh' or 'one of us'

Anyone who appeals to 1 such as Sunak or Hunt wouldn't appeal to 3 and 4. Anyone who appeals to 2 such as maybe Priti Patel might get a few people from 1 and 3 but opens up a very Lib Dem shaped hole in the political landscape. Someone who appeals to 3 needs to charm former Labour voters again and will lose from 1 and 2. Someone who appeals to 4 loses the other three as I think there's a need for someone serious in place.

In summary, Boris Johnson did a really good job at bringing these factions together and can't think of anyone else who could do this right now. Without Boris Johnson, I still think the Conservatives would have won last election but the majority would have been significantly smaller.

Urgh, need a shower after praising Boris Johnson!!

Interesting analysis.

[peanut]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

What I'm disappointed about is that when Cummins left, Johnson brought in an experienced pair of hands to run No 10. This does not seem to have worked out in any way shape or form.

Well I wouldn't class Carrie as an experienced pair of hands.....

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by peanut

Well I wouldn't class Carrie as an experienced pair of hands.....

Fair point.

It seems a life time ago that the Conservatives took Hartlepool from Labour. But it was only May this year!

Originally Posted by Damien

At the moment the 80-seat deficit is daunting for sure but the difference with Starmer over Corbyn is he isn't actively hated. People are indifferent towards him.

The biggest problem for the Tories will be inflation, rising interest rates, the rising cost of living and COVID having pushed the NHS to breaking point which will be noticed in years to come in delayed appointments. It won't be easy for the Tories to 'get their house in order' after all not breaking your own COVID laws to hold a Christmas Party should be the easy part for them.

---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:36 ----------



That's being put down to tactical voting though. The same as Bexley where informally Liberal Democrats voted Labour. Certainly, Labour HQ wasn't throwing themselves at this seat. Nationally Labour is polling far higher than they were the last time this seat was contested in 2019 so the only way a 10 point loss makes sense is if Labour voters smelled blood and went Lib Dem.

It’s not tactical voting. You have a Tory stronghold of Tory voters staying at home in protest and the Anti-Tory voters turning out in numbers. I don’t see it as that tactical. Just hope the message is isn’t twisted to say people want Lib Dem policies, coz we certainly don’t.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Mick

It’s not tactical voting. You have a Tory stronghold of Tory voters staying at home in protest and the Anti-Tory voters turning out in numbers. I don’t see it as that tactical. Just hope the message is isn’t twisted to say people want Lib Dem policies, coz we certainly don’t.

It would appear that there’s been a degree of tactical voting based on the following, but as you say very poor turnout also

LDEM: 47.2% (+37.2)
CON: 31.6% (-31.1)
LAB: 9.7% (-12.4)
GRN: 4.6% (+1.4)
REFUK: 3.8% (+3.8)

Turnout: 46.3% (-21.6)

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

That's being put down to tactical voting though. The same as Bexley where informally Liberal Democrats voted Labour. Certainly, Labour HQ wasn't throwing themselves at this seat. Nationally Labour is polling far higher than they were the last time this seat was contested in 2019 so the only way a 10 point loss makes sense is if Labour voters smelled blood and went Lib Dem.

They should make it a formal arrangement, we keep being told how important our democracy is yet we're happy for tens of millions of votes to not matter in our archaic first past the post system, I hope tactical voting leads to proportional representation in the long run

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They should make it a formal arrangement, we keep being told how important our democracy is yet we're happy for tens of millions of votes to not matter in our archaic first past the post system, I hope tactical voting leads to proportional representation in the long run

Trouble is, the current system favours the two parties that are likely to win so it's not in their interests.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Trouble is, the current system favours the two parties that are likely to win so it's not in their interests.

Really, how many times have labour won in the last 40 years