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Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.
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Old 15-07-2019, 10:33   #1
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Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

I know the Brexit thread is on sabbatical and I post this in full knowledge it may be taken down. But I thought this story too important to not share.

Happy for comments to be disabled but I think people should read it.

https://timesofmalta.com/articles/vi....email=0A=0ATo
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Old 15-07-2019, 11:12   #2
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

It's definatly worth reading.
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Old 15-07-2019, 11:13   #3
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

One thing compared to the Greek crisis is the banks are better isolated from each other since 2008 plus Italy has been 'on the bring' for a few years ago giving time for banks to reduce their exposures to Italian debt.
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Old 15-07-2019, 15:27   #4
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Interesting article in the LSE blog about this.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...urces-of-risk/
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Old 18-07-2019, 09:36   #5
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Interesting article in the LSE blog about this.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...urces-of-risk/
From that:

Quote:
The Italian government has around EUR 53bn, or 3% of GDP, in outstanding arrears as of 2018. Only about EUR 10bn (0.6% of GDP) of these arrears were included in the public debt figures, on the basis of European statistical rules.

As such, the securitisation of these public sector arrears in and of itself is not bad. The formalisation around the terms of repayment via securitisation could indeed accelerate the debt’s repayment or, alternatively, facilitate conversion into a useable tax rebate. Moreover, the transition of arrears into a tradeable security would expedite their removal from the balance sheets of government suppliers,
Isn't that the kind of fiscal slight of hand that got us all in the crap 11 years ago?
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Old 18-07-2019, 09:56   #6
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
From that:



Isn't that the kind of fiscal slight of hand that got us all in the crap 11 years ago?
No - that was all about hiding bad debt in CDOs with other debt; this is all out in the open, so people know the amount of risk involved.
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Old 18-07-2019, 10:24   #7
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
Quote:
The UK will fall into recession next year if there is a no-deal Brexit, the country's fiscal watchdog has said.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said economic growth would fall by 2% by the end of 2020 if it left the bloc without an agreement.
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Old 18-07-2019, 10:28   #8
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
The office for impending doom peddling more project fear
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Old 18-07-2019, 10:37   #9
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
I don't think we need worry about Italy, maybe look closer to home...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
If that is true, then accepting the Withdrawal Agreement would only delay it by a year. How come Germany only narrowly missed being recession?
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Old 18-07-2019, 10:57   #10
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

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If that is true, then accepting the Withdrawal Agreement would only delay it by a year. How come Germany only narrowly missed being recession?
They manipulate to their advantage?
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Old 18-07-2019, 17:46   #11
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Keep to the topic please.Brexit is not the real topic.
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Old 19-07-2019, 21:34   #12
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.
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Old 19-07-2019, 21:53   #13
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.
Strangely enough, I’m not - I tend not to look forward to things that could impact hundreds of millions of people adversely, and could put multiple countries into recession, negatively affecting those who can least afford it.
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Old 19-07-2019, 21:56   #14
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Strangely enough, I’m not - I tend not to look forward to things that could impact hundreds of millions of people adversely, and could put multiple countries into recession, negatively affecting those who can least afford it.

Spot on. This is the problem with ideologies, people lose sight of the human aspect.
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Old 19-07-2019, 21:58   #15
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Re: Italian economic collapse bigger threat to EU that Brexit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
I can't wait for the EU to implode when the Euro goes phut and/or Italy caves.
I don't think many people actually want that to happen, Seph, but sadly I think it will. And I say again, we don't want to be in its sphere when that happens.
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