Brexit

[Angua]

Originally Posted by Dave42

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Our latest Westminster voting intention has the Lib Dems in first place and the Brexit Party second place, with Labour and the Tories pushed into third:
Lib Dem - 24%
Brexit Party - 22%
Con - 19%
Labour - 19%
Green - 8%
UKIP - 1%
Change UK - 1%
Other - 6%

With our unrepresentative electoral system, these percentages would not translate into significant numbers of seats for either Lib Dems or Brexit Ltd. One area where I can agree with their CEO.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by denphone

The thing very much to take from that poll and many others Dave is it just tells you how deeply divided this country is..

I think also if people are voting in a general election, they want to vote for a party with more than one policy and the Brexit Party can't deliver here.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think also if people are voting in a general election, they want to vote for a party with more than one policy and the Brexit Party can't deliver here.

I did notice their QT representative was fudging this point, oddly using some of the ChangeUK methodology to not answer. No doubt waiting for her Leader to work out what policies might get past the electorate, to get enough Westminster seats to do what he really wants.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think also if people are voting in a general election, they want to vote for a party with more than one policy and the Brexit Party can't deliver here.

They didn't need to have more than one policy for the EU election.

Nigel Farage has already stated that the Brexit Party will determine what policies they will run with at a General Election.

Despite what some are wishing for, that is not something that is likely to happen soon if we get a new PM in place who gets us out of this EU incarceration. If that happens, the Brexit Party no longer has a raison d'etre.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Angua

I did notice their QT representative was fudging this point, oddly using some of the ChangeUK methodology to not answer. No doubt waiting for her Leader to work out what policies might get past the electorate, to get enough Westminster seats to do what he really wants.

I think the perception is that they will probably be quite right-wing, yet their MEPs number more Communists that Jeremy Corbyn has broken bread with.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think the perception is that they will probably be quite right-wing, yet their MEPs number more Communists that Jeremy Corbyn has broken bread with.

The Brexit Party is not UKIP. Just because a politician or a whole party advocates Brexit does not mean they are right wing.

You forget that a large proportion of Labour voters wanted Brexit.

Far too many assumptions are being made on here.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The Brexit Party is not UKIP. Just because a politician or a whole party advocates Brexit does not mean they are right wing.

You forget that a large proportion of Labour voters wanted Brexit.

Far too many assumptions are being made on here.

Obviously they only needed one policy in place for the European elections but they need a full suite of policies if they are to contest a general election.

Who knows when that will be, hence they need to move forward on this. The corporate structure should help them move more swiftly than a traditional party.

I forget nothing Old Boy and my point was about how the diversity of views in the Brexit Party can come together with a general election manifesto. In terms of where they might go, think populism. So think high spending, low tax, low immigration, vocal support for our boys, etc. Let's see.

It's one poll. Don't get too excited. It is a sign that the Liberal Democrats are back and that the Brexit Party could well be a force too.

Now again it's one poll and also that if it were to be reflected in a General Election the shift would be so dramatic it's almost impossible to accurately forecast the individual seats (good luck Exit pollsters). However the estimated forecast from this voter share would have Labour and Conservatives as the largest and second largest parties respectively. Depending on the way the seats fell the Liberals or the Brexit party would be the junior party in any coalition.

Brings up the interesting prospects of the Lib Dems and Brexit Party joining forces to get a proportional system in place. Or more likely Labour and Tories joining forces to make sure it never, ever, happens.

---------- Post added at 09:01 ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The Brexit Party is not UKIP. Just because a politician or a whole party advocates Brexit does not mean they are right wing.

You forget that a large proportion of Labour voters wanted Brexit..

This would be a problem for the Brexit Party keep their coalition together, especially post-Brexit, as Brexit is the unifying policy. Underneath they all have very different ideas. You have Thatcherites joining forces with former Marxists. People who served in the British Army to people who supported the IRA.

[1andrew1]

Sky News makes a good point

The Lib Dems led a similar poll after the first ever TV prime ministerial debate in the build-up to the 2010 general election, but the apparent support for Nick Clegg faded quickly and the party ended up behind the Conservatives and Labour.

https://news.sky.com/story/lib-dems-...-ever-11731962

The point about the wide range of views in the Brexit Party was the one I was trying to make to Old Boy - how do you mesh together a manifesto from such different bedfellows?

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

So you're not a fan of polls again? You were getting quite enthusiastic about them

You can apply that sentiment to many politicians Mr K as what the eyes don't like they don't see and what the eyes do like they do see.

Turns out the You Gov poll did not have Brexit Party as an option in the poll question, it was hidden in “other”, this changes things dramatically.. To not have a party that came first in EU parliament Elections, as a poll option, is unacceptable. YouGov have some explaining to do.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:16 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

So you're not a fan of polls again? You were getting quite enthusiastic about them

Did my post say anything about liking polls ever?

I tend to accept polls where they’re the official ones with a much larger sample size, you know the one that runs in to millions of votes, cast at a ballot box.

There are good reasons for keeping minor and new parties in the “other” column. It can distort the results of the poll and make it harder to track genuine change in voter sentiment. It’s unlikely Yougov was looking for controversy (depending on who actually commissioned it, they may have had some input into the way questions were asked also).

There were several early EU election polls that didn’t specify the Brexit party, and where they polled highly it was because respondents named them unprompted. With a very new party that’s probably a better guide as to how well they’re likely to do with the electorate at large. Recognition is important.

YouGov have said they'll explain their methodology latter today. But YouGov's business depends on them being accurate and not conspiring against the Brexit Party so the psephologists would have made their decisions based on trying to get the most accurate result.

Also, it's one poll, let's calm down a bit.

[jfman]

Do the Brexit Party have 650 odd candidates who will stand up to the scrutiny of a General Election?

Originally Posted by jfman

Do the Brexit Party have 650 odd candidates who will stand up to the scrutiny of a General Election?

Does Change UK who are just as old as Brexit Party?