VOD : Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

[muppetman11]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

So how do the adverts get included? What happens if the advertiser doesn't want the advert shown in all regions? How does the advertiser get charged for the number of times their advert is seen? What if the advertiser wants the advert to be unskippable? What happens if the lifetime of the advert isn't the same as the lifetime of the content? What happens if the advert is SD but the content is HD? Or one has Dolby audio and the other doesn't?

Still sure it's easier?

Come on get real , in OB’s world there’ll be a little button you press and it sorts all those issues out in one press.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Of course it's not! Have you ever stopped to think how many people are involved in drawing up the schedules, fitting the advertisements within the limited openings within and between programmes, working out how to fill the gaps in the schedules where insufficient first run programmes are available, the need for an announcer before programmes start, etc, etc. It is far easier to simply upload a programme with advertisements included without regard to precise timing.

Have you forgotten the problems ITV experienced a few years back when advertisers reduced the amount of commercials due to the recession? That's how tight the margins are, and it would not take much for advertisers to reduce drastically the amount of advertising on commercial channels as viewership dropped off.

The smaller channels will go first. Keep your eye on Sky 2. I can't see that surviving for much longer.

All of those channels rating 0.1 on BARB manage to carry out the tasks associated with broadcast television on a shoestring budget so forgive me for once again not accepting your viewpoint.

Advertising revenue will fall, that’s an inevitability, but you are ignoring (perhaps deliberately) my repeated assertion that it will largely be the same companies providing the same content on both mediums. Streaming/linear are not mutually exclusive and you are really questioning the marginal cost of maintaining a linear presence for someone who does both.

A streaming service that insists on inserting 12 minutes per hour into their content is destined to fail over those who don’t. Advertising would be eliminated altogether except product placement.

This, by paradox, will cause a price premium for advertising slots on linear channels that remain at the same time other costs will fall (leasing bandwidth) if there is reduced demand.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

All of those channels rating 0.1 on BARB manage to carry out the tasks associated with broadcast television on a shoestring budget so forgive me for once again not accepting your viewpoint.

Advertising revenue will fall, that’s an inevitability, but you are ignoring (perhaps deliberately) my repeated assertion that it will largely be the same companies providing the same content on both mediums. Streaming/linear are not mutually exclusive and you are really questioning the marginal cost of maintaining a linear presence for someone who does both.

A streaming service that insists on inserting 12 minutes per hour into their content is destined to fail over those who don’t. Advertising would be eliminated altogether except product placement.

This, by paradox, will cause a price premium for advertising slots on linear channels that remain at the same time other costs will fall (leasing bandwidth) if there is reduced demand.

Your views are very interesting, jfman, but they are diametrically opposed to what the media industry itself is saying. If you don't believe these forecasts, there is not much I can say to you except wait and see.

[jfman]

I can’t find anyone predicting the demise of Sky Two, or any suggestions that BSkyB plan to reduce the number of owned and operated linear channels in the UK in the near to mid term future.

One must always beware media analysts predicting a bright and shiny future. Remember, journalists in this field are selling a product - themselves. Nobody wants to read articles about a bland, ordinary and unexceptional future therefore there has to be a few lines to make the world seem more exciting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4184479.stm

Here’s the death knell for linear television from 2005.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

I can’t find anyone predicting the demise of Sky Two, or any suggestions that BSkyB plan to reduce the number of owned and operated linear channels in the UK in the near to mid term future.

One must always beware media analysts predicting a bright and shiny future. Remember, journalists in this field are selling a product - themselves. Nobody wants to read articles about a bland, ordinary and unexceptional future therefore there has to be a few lines to make the world seem more exciting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4184479.stm

Here’s the death knell for linear television from 2005.

Well would you never another glorious prediction.

[jfman]

The technology is the broad direction of travel, but it’s an evolution not a revolution.

[Raider999]

Originally Posted by jfman

The technology is the broad direction of travel, but it’s an evolution not a revolution.

Possibly a case of 'slowly, slowly catchy monkey' - it will probably happen one day but not in my lifetime.

Biggest problem is broadband speed - whilst this is good for some the vast majority have problems downloading anything let alone HD and UHD live TV.

There is little sign of this changing in the short or medium term

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I can’t find anyone predicting the demise of Sky Two, or any suggestions that BSkyB plan to reduce the number of owned and operated linear channels in the UK in the near to mid term future.

One must always beware media analysts predicting a bright and shiny future. Remember, journalists in this field are selling a product - themselves. Nobody wants to read articles about a bland, ordinary and unexceptional future therefore there has to be a few lines to make the world seem more exciting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4184479.stm

Here’s the death knell for linear television from 2005.

It's a slow death, old chap. It will happen.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's a slow death, old chap. It will happen.

In the year dot l suppose....

[jfman]

Originally Posted by denphone

In the year dot l suppose....

Streaming will be dead by then we will just get plugged directly into a Matrix type system. With the technological singularity in the early 2040s it’s touch and go if linear tv dies out before life as we know it.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Streaming will be dead by then we will just get plugged directly into a Matrix type system. With the technological singularity in the early 2040s it’s touch and go if linear tv dies out before life as we know it.

On the contrary, streaming will take over live sports events once all the glitches are resolved and superfast broadband covers the whole country.

In the US, the prospect of diminishing value of advertising is said to be imminent, and the shift to streaming of major sports events is not far off.

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20190118...#axzz5cze188Y3

EXTRACT

At the heart of this fall, argued the analyst, was US broadcasters making their advertising more and more expensive to satisfy their shareholders. Yet it felt that this rate of price increases could not be sustained.

Rethink believes this strategy will come home to roost in a collapse in advertising value late in 2019 and early in 2020. At the same time, the market is likely to experience a double whammy in the face of more US homes cutting the cord, resulting in fewer pay-TV homes, and more and more advertising opportunities with long form digital virtual MVPDs and others. The result will be fewer viewings, watched less often leading to a weak market and uncertainty and this in turn will likely lead to sports rights shifting to online properties and in some cases “going it alone” in a direct-to-consumer strategy.

[Raider999]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

On the contrary, streaming will take over live sports events once all the glitches are resolved and superfast broadband covers the whole country.

In the US, the prospect of diminishing value of advertising is said to be imminent, and the shift to streaming of major sports events is not far off.

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20190118...#axzz5cze188Y3

EXTRACT

At the heart of this fall, argued the analyst, was US broadcasters making their advertising more and more expensive to satisfy their shareholders. Yet it felt that this rate of price increases could not be sustained.

Rethink believes this strategy will come home to roost in a collapse in advertising value late in 2019 and early in 2020. At the same time, the market is likely to experience a double whammy in the face of more US homes cutting the cord, resulting in fewer pay-TV homes, and more and more advertising opportunities with long form digital virtual MVPDs and others. The result will be fewer viewings, watched less often leading to a weak market and uncertainty and this in turn will likely lead to sports rights shifting to online properties and in some cases “going it alone” in a direct-to-consumer strategy.

Really, you are optimistic OB.

It could well be decades before broadband speeds are high enough over the country for streaming of live sports to take a hold

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

On the contrary, streaming will take over live sports events once all the glitches are resolved and superfast broadband covers the whole country.

In the US, the prospect of diminishing value of advertising is said to be imminent, and the shift to streaming of major sports events is not far off.

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20190118...#axzz5cze188Y3

EXTRACT

At the heart of this fall, argued the analyst, was US broadcasters making their advertising more and more expensive to satisfy their shareholders. Yet it felt that this rate of price increases could not be sustained.

Rethink believes this strategy will come home to roost in a collapse in advertising value late in 2019 and early in 2020. At the same time, the market is likely to experience a double whammy in the face of more US homes cutting the cord, resulting in fewer pay-TV homes, and more and more advertising opportunities with long form digital virtual MVPDs and others. The result will be fewer viewings, watched less often leading to a weak market and uncertainty and this in turn will likely lead to sports rights shifting to online properties and in some cases “going it alone” in a direct-to-consumer strategy.

From the very same website:

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20181122...#axzz5d8LQSqHX

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

From the very same website:

https://www.rapidtvnews.com/20181122...#axzz5d8LQSqHX

One is in anticipation of OB's reply.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by denphone

One is in anticipation of OB's reply.

I’ll be wrong. Obviously.