Brexit (Old)

[ianch99]

What is strange is that there is a section of society who really think that the various professional bodies, business leaders, advisors, civil servants, etc. actually are part of a conspiracy to invent or over exaggerate the effects of a hard Brexit.

When some/most/all of these come to pass the very same people will be silent ..

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by ianch99

What is strange is that there is a section of society who really think that the various professional bodies, business leaders, advisors, civil servants, etc. actually are part of a conspiracy to invent or over exaggerate the effects of a hard Brexit.

When some/most/all of these come to pass the very same people will be silent ..

they be the biggest moaners going when we fall of cliff edge

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by ianch99

What is strange is that there is a section of society who really think that the various professional bodies, business leaders, advisors, civil servants, etc. actually are part of a conspiracy to invent or over exaggerate the effects of a hard Brexit.

When some/most/all of these come to pass the very same people will be silent ..

Yeah. They are collectively known as the establishment. And the population see right through all the B/S!

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Did you see the link I posted here? It is an interesting article fact checking Sir Michael Rawlins warning. It would be interesting to know you thoughts on it ..

Sorry for the late reply, I have been travelling and a bit out of touch. Thanks for the article, it was very interesting. Bit of an error there on the animal insulin. 0.3% of insulin is made in the UK is a small but significant amount. I know the other three suppliers well in my day to day work and they are huge, especially Novo Nordisk in the insulin world (Novo sponsors a diabetic cycling team so a nice crossover of my work and leisure time)

For some products, the papaerwork and even the formulations can differ by region. An EMA (EU) approval process can be very different to an FDA (US) one. EMA approvals are often of a more modern risk based type as opposed to a more proscriptive FDA one. It may well be the case that we could import products from outside the EU if the suppliers have the capacity. Capacity is driven by demand and expanding capacity in the bio pharmaceutical field is not cheap, easy or quick. Could a supplier back up the UK demand for insulin overnight? Probably not. Would that insulin be acceptable to the UK market from a regulatory point of view? Not sure to be honest.

If we were to accept EMA approved drugs in a ‘pharmaceutical single market’, this would help but if we are trying to gain back our sovereignty, turning over our drug approvals process to a foreign organisation seems a bit odd.

On the time to go through customs. This is rolled out quite a lot. Though not in the case of pharmaceutical cold chain supply, deliveries from the EU can very very mixed on the same container as no inspections are required. If we go no deal, then sifting through containers becomes a big problem. It’s not just the quantity but the quality of deliveries that matters. There will be delays for sure. We had 28000 customs, VAT and excise officers in 1992 and this was reduced to 16000 post CU/SM. Dover had 2000 officers alone! In the meantime, 400% more vehicles cross the channel than in 1992 so we are going to need a lot more customs officers to stick to,our current performance, especially in more EU trade centric ports. Hence the pessimism on the efficiency of imports of cold chain drugs such as insulin.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not sure what your point is. No one knows what deal the Government will get so all that anyone can do is point out what will happen depending on the type of deal or absence of one. You have to deal with uncertainty in business and scenario planning such as those by the councils in Kent are common.

It's speculation, guesswork, sensationalism all wrapped up in a negative narrative.

Do you know what the world will be like the day after Brexit? I don't, but I will do some speculation.............the same as it is now.

Lorries, goods and people will continue to come through the Chunnel and via ferry. Planes will continue to fly, people will still go to Spain for their holiday. There will be changes to the way things work but it will be gradual and worked out.

There will be no "Cliff Edge". The world simply doesn't and can't work that way.

There will be French champagne and cheese in the shops, Spanish oranges, Belgian and German beer and Cars from all over, pharmaceuticals etc will all be there, petrol pumps will not be dry, electricity from France will still flow across the channel, shelves will not be empty.

---------- Post added at 19:32 ---------- Previous post was at 19:31 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

What is strange is that there is a section of society who really think that the various professional bodies, business leaders, advisors, civil servants, etc. actually are part of a conspiracy to invent or over exaggerate the effects of a hard Brexit.
..

That is not strange at all. Far from it.

[Mr K]

Brexiters with their heads in the sand (Brexit Derangement Syndrome), they must all be busy drawing up lists of who to blame. Meanwhile the Govt. makes plans to bring the army in.....

What was it Mr Bloomberg said ? "The single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president." He's another one in on the 'conspiracy' no doubt

Originally Posted by Pierre

It's speculation, guesswork, sensationalism all wrapped up in a negative narrative.

Do you know what the world will be like the day after Brexit? I don't, but I will do some speculation.............the same as it is now.

Lorries, goods and people will continue to come through the Chunnel and via ferry. Planes will continue to fly, people will still go to Spain for their holiday. There will be changes to the way things work but it will be gradual and worked out.

There will be no "Cliff Edge". The world simply doesn't and can't work that way.

This is what I think will happen but because no deal would be averted and there will be a bodge. I.E If goods flow freely the day after Brexit it's either because we're in a customs union of some sort or we're nodding them though without customs checks. I reckon for former as part of a 'transition period' as the Government won't want the drawbacks of just allowing things to come though without checks or tariffs.

The thing with all the things you've mentioned is that they require some sort of agreement which currently is managed via the EU. So something needs to be done or we're going for the fudge option.

I am reasonably that next year we will, for practical purposes, be kinda in the EU even with some official recognition that we're not.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Brexiters with their heads in the sand (Brexit Derangement Syndrome), they must all be busy drawing up lists of who to blame. Meanwhile the Govt. makes plans to bring the army in.....

What was it Mr Bloomberg said ? "The single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president." He's another one in on the 'conspiracy' no doubt

Just a realist, that doesn't scare easy.

Do you think that all those people that have booked holidays to Europe won't be allowed to travel?

Do you think all those companies that have contracts to supply goods and services ( both ways) won't be allowed to?

Do you think that planes from the UK won't be able fly to, and over, Europe?

That's not head in the sand, that is common sense. Common sense will win. There was a post earlier about big business, who do you think politicians really serve?

Go to bed and take a big spoonful of reality, when you wake up you'll feel much better.

Originally Posted by Pierre

That's not head in the sand, that is common sense. Common sense will win. There was a post earlier about big business, who do you think politicians really serve? .

I think we do need to be careful that common sense will win though. Our politics isn't exactly a model of stability at the moment and the things you describe need political action to achieve.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

This is what I think will happen but because no deal would be averted and there will be a bodge. I.E If goods flow freely the day after Brexit it's either because we're in a customs union of some sort or we're nodding them though without customs checks. I reckon for former as part of a 'transition period' as the Government won't want the drawbacks of just allowing things to come though without checks or tariffs.

The thing with all the things you've mentioned is that they require some sort of agreement which currently is managed via the EU. So something needs to be done or we're going for the fudge option.

I am reasonably that next year we will, for practical purposes, be kinda in the EU even with some official recognition that we're not.

It will be BINO for a long time to come so 30 March 2019 will pretty much look like 29 March 2019 except that we'll have no MEPs and no voting rights, just a Churchill dog that nods "yes" when the European Parliaments enacts a new directive.

A headline in today's FT "Brussels willing to accept ‘fudge’ on Brexit pact Vague declaration on future ties would help Theresa May avoid ‘no deal’ departure" (Google to read the full article) suggests a no-deal is less likely.

---------- Post added at 21:01 ---------- Previous post was at 20:34 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

It's speculation, guesswork, sensationalism all wrapped up in a negative narrative.

The documents in question were internal planning documents from two councils in Kent. Do you honestly think that if you're not threatening the EU with no-deal then you should be aware of its ramifications and plan for them accordingly? And why do you have such a low opinion of people as to call their work "guesswork". That's unfair.

---------- Post added at 21:04 ---------- Previous post was at 21:01 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

There was a post earlier about big business, who do you think politicians really serve?

Is this a trick question, or can we say "Themselves" and win the cash prize?

Originally Posted by Mr K

Brexiters with their heads in the sand (Brexit Derangement Syndrome), they must all be busy drawing up lists of who to blame. Meanwhile the Govt. makes plans to bring the army in.....

What was it Mr Bloomberg said ? "The single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president." He's another one in on the 'conspiracy' no doubt

I have NO lists because Brexit will be a wonderful thing for the UK. We do not need to be in a corrupt union to do trade and most importantly trade with WHO we want.

So far it's been pathetic doom and gloom, with so many scaremongering predictions that have turned out to be pure fiction.

I thought Brexit Derangement Syndrome, was aimed at the Remainers struggling to accept the overwhelming legitimate result for leaving the EU. Just like, Trump Derangement Syndrome, is aimed at those struggling to accept that Crooked Hillary lost.

As for Bloomberg - Noone's interested in what a rich moron like him thinks, I am certainly not, you seem to call the well off when it suits unless they're against Brexit.

One key thing to point out is that Brexit happened because of Democracy, other thing to point out that in the U.S, Democracy elected, Donald J. Trump - and it is NOT 'stupid' to have a vote to cast it how people choose to and if one side loses, then that's how democracy works, so people are not stupid for opting for a choice that was there to be voted on.

The problem here is, people are being pathetic when they slag off people for not choosing what they feel they should have voted for.

Democracy is about free thinking, choosing an option that they believe in and I would vote to leave the EU, again and again and AGAIN, because I do not want to be in a unbalanced, corrupted union that HAS handicapped as well as fleeced the UK for over 40 years. NO more!!!

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Mick

I would vote to leave the EU, again and again and AGAIN, because I do not want to be in a unbalanced, corrupted union that HAS handicapped as well as fleeced the UK for over 40 years. NO more!!!

seconded

[1andrew1]

So true.

In the minds of some of the most passionate Brexiters, the economic case for leaving the EU is less important than the prospect of the UK asserting its sovereignty. This is the promised land, which will flow with the milk and honey produced by stout British cows and industrious British bees.
They celebrate the idea that the UK will be able to negotiate new trade deals by itself — even though it already trades extensively with all the major economies as a member of the EU. But this fancy is blind to the truth that any new deals will place the country at a disadvantage and will, through provisions on “no-tariff barriers”, mean Britain will be surrendering control on domestic policy.

https://www.ft.com/content/55d8cf86-...b-b8205561c3fe

[daveeb]

So true.
Quote:
In the minds of some of the most passionate Brexiters, the economic case for leaving the EU is less important than the prospect of the UK asserting its sovereignty. This is the promised land, which will flow with the milk and honey produced by stout British cows and industrious British bees.
They celebrate the idea that the UK will be able to negotiate new trade deals by itself — even though it already trades extensively with all the major economies as a member of the EU. But this fancy is blind to the truth that any new deals will place the country at a disadvantage and will, through provisions on “no-tariff barriers”, mean Britain will be surrendering control on domestic policy.
https://www.ft.com/content/55d8cf86-...b-b8205561c3fe

That made me laugh, but unfortunately it's also spot on.

[Sephiroth]

The turning point for me was the EU trade deal with Japan.

Remember where I'm coming from. Those Brussels "whatsits" are an awful bunch of unelected elitists; however we are not in the Euro and we can stay outside the "ever closer union" nonsense which won't fly with the current generation of Europeans anyway.

Not that what I think matters, I don't like some of the sneering sarcasm I read like the "promised land" sentence in the previous post. This is a hard nosed matter and from an economic point of view, the Japan trade deal just tips the balance.

And another thing - we know who are not our friends. I'm referring especially to Macron of France whose naked (though understandable) attempt to grab jobs from the UK is one of the principle causes of negotiation intransigence by the Commission.

My distaste for the EU remains strong. It is a German/French axis, with the latter being akin to running dogs. I've explained in detail earlier how Germany engineered the Euro's initial value to their advantage - which has eventually led to the Greek crisis (possibly with more to follow). I've also explained that the illegal 8% German balance of payments surplus hasn't been brought to book before the ECJ. Who is running the EU? It is an awful organisation.

However, if we can continue as we are, outside the Euro/federalisation nonsense, we have to put up with three things that some/we don't particularly like but hasn't really hurt us in the past:

1/
The ECJ with respect to EU law (in which we have a formulation hand);

2/
EU Freedom of Labour Movement (I'm happy with that);

3/
Skewing the rules to get EU legislation through when we use our veto - the Working Time Directive being a case in point. Thank goodness for our opt-out.

Anyway - you can see where I'm coming from.