30-03-2019, 23:42
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#856
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Are you accusing the Financial Times of maintaining an inaccurate list of polling data? That’s quite astonishing really. The media might have given more prominence to polls they prefer, but there were certainly polls out there from recognised organisations that showed a leave lead.
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You've provided a link and people can make up their own minds on this.
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30-03-2019, 23:48
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#857
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Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,118
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
You can’t reasonably accuse me of lying when I present a record maintained by the Financiial Times.
Anyone with the time or inclination could go back and find releases from the respective organisations and test the veracity of the figures.
Yes there were, albeit less, remain polls in the last two weeks but that’s the nature of the statistical margin of error projecting such a close result.
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That record is clearly wrong. I don’t need to google. I have a memory. I remembered the polling detail well. I remember the claims of Remain making progress via the polls in the run up to the referendum.
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30-03-2019, 23:48
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#858
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Brexit (New).
Under the cover of the events on Friday, Vote Leave dropped its challenge to the court case against it for electoral offences. A lot of media time was previously given to its denials but less is being given to its acceptance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toral-offences
Will be interesting to see if this is quickly forgotten or if it comes back to bite BoJo in the event of a leadership challenge.
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30-03-2019, 23:56
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#859
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,364
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
That record is clearly wrong. I don’t need to google. I have a memory. I remembered the polling detail well. I remember the claims of Remain making progress via the polls in the run up to the referendum.
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So you can’t actually prove any of the figures are wrong?
I accept you will have a recollection based on whatever media you were consuming at the time but the efforts the FT went to in order to create the list I did be personally stunned that, if after almost three years, none of the polling companies have asked them to amend their record.
---------- Post added at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:56 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Under the cover of the events on Friday, Vote Leave dropped its challenge to the court case against it for electoral offences. A lot of media time was previously given to its denials but less is being given to its acceptance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toral-offences
Will be interesting to see if this is quickly forgotten or if it comes back to bite BoJo in the event of a leadership challenge.
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It’ll be back. This is going to be a key part of kicking it back to the people. The danger is making the same mistake as last time and losing again if there’s no compelling reasons to stay.
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31-03-2019, 00:09
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#860
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Brexit (New).
Talking of polls; an interesting development here or is it just a blip? Could this reduce the likelihood of a general election?
Quote:
Public support for Labour party is 41 per cent, five points clear of Conservatives
At an election Labour would be on course to win 307 seats - 19 short of majority
Poll also revealed Boris Johnson has double the support of Sajid Javid to be PM
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oint-lead.html
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31-03-2019, 00:12
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#861
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Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,118
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
So you can’t actually prove any of the figures are wrong?
I accept you will have a recollection based on whatever media you were consuming at the time but the efforts the FT went to in order to create the list I did be personally stunned that, if after almost three years, none of the polling companies have asked them to amend their record.
---------- Post added at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:56 ----------
It’ll be back. This is going to be a key part of kicking it back to the people. The danger is making the same mistake as last time and losing again if there’s no compelling reasons to stay.
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Enough of the “prove it” bullshit. I know what the polls said, they had Remain consistently in the lead. How wrong they were and are again. That’s why they’re unreliable. Only one poll matters and that is the official one from 2016.
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31-03-2019, 00:16
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#862
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,364
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
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It’ll be interesting to see if it’s replicated across a broader sample of polls. If so it’ll make a general election less likely, which in turn makes a second referendum more likely to break the impasse.
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31-03-2019, 00:30
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#863
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
No they did not. Stop lying. The pollsters got it wrong in 2016 for foolishly leaning for a Remain win. I remember them well. I couldn’t give a shit what the FT says.
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Unlikely as it may seem, I think you're probably both in broad agreement. Everything I read said that Remain was ahead. It was only the private polls conducted whilst poling was underway that actually said otherwise.
However, nowhere was Remain ahead by a substantial amount, so the figure quoted in the FT (48% Remain, 46% Leave) does not seem out of place.
There's actually a very good article in the FT which seems to be free "How accurate are the Brexit polls?" which covers this topic. https://www.ft.com/content/6a63c2ca-...d-26294ad519fc
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31-03-2019, 02:00
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#864
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Barry South Wales
Age: 68
Services: With VM for BB 250Mb service.(Deal)
Posts: 11,656
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Re: Brexit (New).
How anyone can believe a poll of (on average) 2000 people reflects the entire nation is beyond me.
As Mick says, the only poll that matters is the one with the cross in the box.
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31-03-2019, 02:36
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#865
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,364
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
How anyone can believe a poll of (on average) 2000 people reflects the entire nation is beyond me.
As Mick says, the only poll that matters is the one with the cross in the box.
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Arguably the only one that matters is the next Brexit referendum.
Nobody is saying opinion polling is perfect or has 100% accuracy to a population of 66 million people - it has a statistical margin of error - for 2000 people this is plus or minus 2 per cent
In the case of polling on a binary choice the obvious difference is the use of a “don’t know” option that isn’t on the ballot on the day.
In the case of a General Election the polls taken now could vary from an election because the campaign itself brings in greater rules on neutrality in broadcast media coverage and unforeseen topics/issues can change voting intention in a seven week campaign.
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31-03-2019, 02:39
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#866
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Age: 68
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Posts: 11,656
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Arguably the only one that matters is the next Brexit referendum.
Nobody is saying opinion polling is perfect or has 100% accuracy to a population of 66 million people - it has a statistical margin of error - for 2000 people this is plus or minus 2 per cent
In the case of polling on a binary choice the obvious difference is the use of a “don’t know” option that isn’t on the ballot on the day.
In the case of a General Election the polls taken now could vary from an election because the campaign itself brings in greater rules on neutrality in broadcast media coverage and unforeseen topics/issues can change voting intention in a seven week campaign.
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So you agree a waste of time then.
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31-03-2019, 07:12
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#867
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,364
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
So you agree a waste of time then.
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It’s not a waste of time if you understand what you are looking at is a snapshot within a range and not a promise of the next general election result.
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31-03-2019, 07:46
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#868
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Still alive and fighting
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: In the land of beyond and beyond.
Services: XL BB, 3 360 boxes , XL TV.
Posts: 56,308
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It’s not a waste of time if you understand what you are looking at is a snapshot within a range and not a promise of the next general election result.
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l will will be very surprised if she carries out her threat to call a General Election given the increasingly bitter internecine civil war within the government.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-47763034
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tion-plan.html
__________________
“The only lesson you can learn from history is that it repeats itself”
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31-03-2019, 07:48
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#869
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Perfect Soldier
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Age: 66
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Posts: 10,994
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Quote from denphone:
l will will be very surprised if she carries out her threat to call a General Election given the increasingly bitter internecine civil war within the government.
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Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
__________________
History is much like an endless waltz: The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.
However history will change with my coronation - Mariemaia Khushrenada
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31-03-2019, 07:56
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#870
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Still alive and fighting
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: In the land of beyond and beyond.
Services: XL BB, 3 360 boxes , XL TV.
Posts: 56,308
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Re: Brexit (New).
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
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And they certainly don't want a new leader in some of the loyal Tory heartlands.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ory-heartlands
__________________
“The only lesson you can learn from history is that it repeats itself”
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