Local Elections 2022

[Pierre]

For the first time, in a long time, I couldn't be arsed to vote. So didn't.

The Liberal Democrats are now having a great set of elections. Now doing well in Wokingham, moved West Oxfordshire in No Overall Control, doing well in Somerset and make take the council.

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Projected National share of the vote is in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-61235136

With more than 700 of the BBC's key wards now declared, we are estimating what would happen if the whole country had been voting in local elections on Thursday.

The outcome across Britain as a whole would have been:

Conservative 30%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 19%
Others 16%
What this means

At 35%, Labour's estimate simply matches that for the party in 2018, which was Jeremy Corbyn's best set of local elections.

But it represents as much as a six-point improvement on its performance in last year's local elections.

And the five-point lead that Labour enjoy over the Conservatives is the largest in any local election since 2012.

In contrast, at 30% the Conservatives are down five points on 2018 and six points on last year.

With the exception of the 2019 local elections when the party was battered by its divisions over the Brexit negotiations, this represents the party's worst performance in a local election since before the EU referendum.

At 19%, the Liberal Democrat performance matches that in the 2019 locals, which had represented the party's best performance in any local election since it entered coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.

[Hom3r]

The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%


Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.


Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin

Originally Posted by Hom3r

The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%


Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.


Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin

They do this all the time. The projected national results are a standard part of local elections as it helps - maybe incorrectly - place the results into some context as people look to these elections to try and see what it means at the national level.

---------- Post added at 15:09 ---------- Previous post was at 15:01 ----------

Lib Dems take Somerset.

Forget Labour (who've done a better bit today than last night), the Lib Dems have made massive gains.

[Hom3r]

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

All to do with Purdah.

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

For the same reason no more FPNs were issued to anyone at the Downing Street get-togethers over the last two weeks - trying to avoid being seen as influencing the Elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-elections-evg

The police service is investigating several potentially rule-breaking gatherings following revelations in late 2021, and announced the first round of fines via Fixed Penalty Notices in mid-April.

But representatives have since said they will not issue further announcements before the May 5 local elections.

In an announcement on April 21, a Met Police spokesman said that while the investigations will continue during the pre-election period, "restrictions around communicating" would see them suspend updates.

The restrictions mentioned by the spokesman are also colloquially known as "purdah" or "heightened sensitivity" and primarily apply to Government ministers.

They prevent civil servants and those within ministerial ranks from announcing new initiatives that might give them an unfair advantage over other parties during elections.

Which by the way I don't think applies to the police but if they're going to do it for the Tories then they need to do it for everyone.

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The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.

Lib Dems are up over 150.

Originally Posted by Damien

The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.

Lib Dems are up over 150.

… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.

Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.

(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.

Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections

---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA

BBC seat projection for a General Election based on today's results ...
Lab 291
Con 253
LD 31
Others 75

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Originally Posted by Chris

… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.

Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.

(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.

I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).

In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.

Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections

---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA



---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------



I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).

In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.

Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?

Conservatives also have a tightrope to walk - the more they try and pitch the anti-immigrant, we-got-Brexit done message to their red wall working class voters, the more they encourage their home counties voters to move to the Liberal Democrats whose stigma of tuition fees is fading away. And the main issue about people's incomes being squeezed won't go away.

[General Maximus]

I don't think it is case of "why would you want to vote for the conservatives" but "why would you want to vote for labour or the lib dems" and that is why I think the conservatives will still win at the next General Election. The other parties haven't got enough going for them to unseat the current government.

Getting worse:

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/...BHZOBknKw&s=09

Tory losses are now far exceeding the mainstream projections made beforehand. Steve Fisher had -280, Ben Walker -200. Tories now on -467.

This is now worse than the polls were predicting beforehand.

[General Maximus]

Originally Posted by Damien

Tories now on -467

Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by General Maximus

Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.

Bet they don't or won't.