UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm with you on this one, Seph. Even if Trump won the election, there's no plans for a UK-US trade deal this year.

There isn’t, but it’s more viable and there are EU positions that are red flags for a deal with the Trump administration.

The EU similarly, if they think Biden will win, know that they will extract more from the UK position in November because they’re the only show in town for the foreseeable.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Mr K

I've got a good idea. We could join up with nearby European countries forming some sort of economic alliance. Call it the 'European Alliance' if you like. It would then be the biggest economic block in the World and we'd have much more leverage in Trade deals. We'd all live happily ever after instead of becoming a dwindling irrelevant economic backwater, seeking aid/pity from others..... Good idea eh?

Wake up, Mr K, you are having another nightmare, and it hasn’t played out yet.

---------- Post added at 20:04 ---------- Previous post was at 19:58 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

gets my support 100% isn't that what we thought we were joining?

Oh you missed out the turning into a federal super state bit.........

Not to mention minor issues like a European Army.

Even more worrying, of course, is the EU’s anti-business stance. In fact the more I think about the EU, the more reasons I come up with why we really don’t want to be part of it.

[1andrew1]

Seems to back up what jfman was saying.

Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision
Ivan Rogers, who was the UK’s permanent representative in Brussels from 2013 to 2017, told the Observer that a view shared by ministers and officials he has talked to in recent weeks in several European capitals, is that Johnson is biding his time – and is much more likely to opt for no deal if his friend and Brexit supporter Donald Trump prevails over the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-decision

The headline isn’t supported by the content of the article. The article first of all is hearsay; it’s not quoting EU government figures, it’s quoting someone who used to have a professional relationship with some EU government figures, relating what they have said informally to him. Second of all it’s an opinion piece, which isn’t a problem in itself except the headline creates the impression of being a news item reporting facts.

It tells us that *some* people in government in European countries *think* BoJo’s approach to No Deal *might* be influenced by the US election - not what he “will” do.

[jfman]

In fairness I'm just offering an opinion and even if the UK were taking this stance they'd never admit it openly.

Proof will be in the pudding once we have President-elect Boden and a Democratic Senate.

[1andrew1]

I'd been sceptical of this theory but the current FT lead headline reads "Concerns grow inside Downing Street as polls point to Biden victory".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'd been sceptical of this theory but the current FT lead headline reads "Concerns grow inside Downing Street as polls point to Biden victory".

I think it's quite obvious really. Trump and the whole Make America Great Again mantra drives trade war after trade war. Brexit is an easy way to destabilise the EU, with the added bonus of scraping up some wins for US businesses in the UK.

A Biden administration would see a strong EU as an important counterweight to Russian influence in Eastern Europe and be less interested in a trade war with the EU.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'd been sceptical of this theory but the current FT lead headline reads "Concerns grow inside Downing Street as polls point to Biden victory".

It looks like its going to be the highest US voter turnout for over 100 years and the early signs given over 50 million have already voted don't bode well for Donald Trump.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think it's quite obvious really. Trump and the whole Make America Great Again mantra drives trade war after trade war. Brexit is an easy way to destabilise the EU, with the added bonus of scraping up some wins for US businesses in the UK.

A Biden administration would see a strong EU as an important counterweight to Russian influence in Eastern Europe and be less interested in a trade war with the EU.

Yes, I get Trump's and Biden's objectives but I just don't see any chance of a swift trade deal between the UK and the US even if Trump wins and has BoJo on speed-dial.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Yes, I get Trump's and Biden's objectives but I just don't see any chance of a swift trade deal between the UK and the US even if Trump wins and has BoJo on speed-dial.

In some respects for the Trump’s US it doesn’t matter if there is one - their overarching aims are met as long as Boris believes it’s on the horizon and the USA can spin out negotiations as long as it pleases knowing there is no UK/EU deal.

The USA will be able to pick off some trade under WTO rules.

[Sephiroth]

We already trade with the US on WTO terms. I can't see the big deal here for us plus, as others have said, getting one is not likely to be quicke unless we cave.

Remember also that Boris has a cabinet, MPs and a party to convince, never mind the country.

I've no idea whether or not Boris is being wisely advised, but the country will be very angry if the EU talks fail because of Boris wants to know the US election result first. I'd forecast that his position would become rapidly untenable.

I believe we are at the point now where only demonstrable EU intransigence can lead to an "acceptable" failure of talks.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

We already trade with the US on WTO terms. I can't see the big deal here for us plus, as others have said, getting one is not likely to be quicke unless we cave.

Remember also that Boris has a cabinet, MPs and a party to convince, never mind the country.

I've no idea whether or not Boris is being wisely advised, but the country will be very angry if the EU talks fail because of Boris wants to know the US election result first. I'd forecast that his position would become rapidly untenable.

I believe we are at the point now where only demonstrable EU intransigence can lead to an "acceptable" failure of talks.

Nobody ever needs to know why EU trade talks weren't concluded before the US election though - one way or the other. EU talks always go to the 11th hour and there's the minor issue of the deteriorating global pandemic.

There's easily enough cover for a wait and see approach, and Boris can 100% deny it ever to be the case.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Nobody ever needs to know why EU trade talks weren't concluded before the US election though - one way or the other. EU talks always go to the 11th hour and there's the minor issue of the deteriorating global pandemic.

There's easily enough cover for a wait and see approach, and Boris can 100% deny it ever to be the case.

... but Boris needs the sceptical public to be onside and he's not really well respected, I sense.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by denphone

It looks like its going to be the highest US voter turnout for over 100 years and the early signs given over 50 million have already voted don't bode well for Donald Trump.

Unless they’re voting for him?

Originally Posted by Pierre

Unless they’re voting for him?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...-states-431363

Democrats have opened up a yawning gap in early voting over Republicans in six of the most crucial battleground states — but that only begins to tell the story of their advantage heading into Election Day.

In a more worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP, according to internal data shared with POLITICO by Hawkfish, a new Democratic research firm, which was reviewed by Republicans and independent experts.

The turnout data does not mean Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden. Both sides are bracing for a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3. Yet the turnout disparity with new and less-reliable voters has forced Republican political operatives to take notice.