20-01-2022, 12:07
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#1441
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
It’s still an over-simplification. Excess deaths are also caused by people not getting diagnosed and/or treated in time as a result of prioritising Covid patients.
It shouldn’t be a problem working out who has actually been admitted and/or died of coronavirus, but recording has been shambolic because no country seems to have taken a sensible and pragmatic means of recording. Even we cannot differentiate which patients are admitted because of or die because of Covid.
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Data collection is never 100% perfect Old Boy. But excess deaths is acknowledged as the best international comparator. But if it paints Johnson in a bad light, I am sure you will do your best to undermine it.
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20-01-2022, 12:14
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#1442
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,098
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Data collection is never 100% perfect Old Boy. But excess deaths is acknowledged as the best international comparator. But if it paints Johnson in a bad light, I am sure you will do your best to undermine it.
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He’ll want to wait for the report, or 2035, whichever is later…
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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20-01-2022, 12:53
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#1443
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 8,899
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Excess deaths are also caused by people not getting diagnosed and/or treated in time as a result of prioritising Covid patients.
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That's exactly why excess deaths is the best way to measure it. Those people would not have died it if were not for Covid. So even if they didn't have Covid, it caused their death.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
It shouldn’t be a problem working out who has actually been admitted and/or died of coronavirus
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It is a big problem, because there is a huge grey area. For example, if you have a chronic illness such as COPD, catch Covid, get hospitalised and die, have you died of Covid, or just with it? There is no clear answer.
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20-01-2022, 12:57
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#1444
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Mum 15/08/46 - 30/09/20
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Galactic Sector ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha, www.daves-world.co.uk. A secret Moonbase (shh don't tell anybody)
Age: 55
Services: 1 V6, 2x1TB TiVo, SH3. Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ 5G, Ton's of Smart Home stuff, & Cuddy Toy
Posts: 16,875
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Re: Coronavirus
My sister works in a solicitor's office, and working from home did initially have IT issues, but all staff have been given a Laptop, Scanner/Printer and mobile etc.
They are now set to carry on working in the office 2 days a week (on set days), it has gone so good that their bonus will be at least £2,000.
It has saved her nearly £1,500 a year on diesel, plus she can do the washing as well in between work
__________________
STAY AT HOME: I found out that mum will never walk again as the coronavirus attacked her nervous system. She died on September 30th, wearing a mask and she still might be alive today.
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20-01-2022, 16:22
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#1445
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,668
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
The other thing with smallpox is that it's much easier to spot and isolate when it becomes transmissible. You do not have asymptomatic smallpox (as far as I know).
So when they identified a case of Smallpox the WHO would take a break from their touring schedule and swoop into the area to do 'ring-vaccination' around the suspected case. Basically starving it of further carriers. Every time another case occurred they too would be isolated and people in that community vaccinated again until it had nowhere left to go. No more Smallpox.
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Yep, that's pretty much how the WHO worked. Smallpox eradication worked because of;
- No asymptomatic carriers
- People REALLY didn't want to get Smallpox to vaccination take up was close to 100% when needed
- There are no animal carriers and the virus dies quickly when not inside a person
- The vaccine was easy to administer (no injections)
- The virus is pretty stable genetically so no new exciting variants popped up over time
- A global effort was in place with vaccines being manufactured by local suppliers
Polio hopefully is going the same way for the same reasons. There were only 5 wild cases noted globally last year
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20-01-2022, 16:39
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#1446
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,096
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
My sister works in a solicitor's office, and working from home did initially have IT issues, but all staff have been given a Laptop, Scanner/Printer and mobile etc.
They are now set to carry on working in the office 2 days a week (on set days), it has gone so good that their bonus will be at least £2,000.
It has saved her nearly £1,500 a year on diesel, plus she can do the washing as well in between work
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20-01-2022, 17:00
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#1447
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,098
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Re: Coronavirus
__________________
There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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20-01-2022, 17:06
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#1448
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,096
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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Deary me, the conspiracy theorists are out in force.
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20-01-2022, 18:07
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#1449
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,589
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Data collection is never 100% perfect Old Boy. But excess deaths is acknowledged as the best international comparator. But if it paints Johnson in a bad light, I am sure you will do your best to undermine it.
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That is not a satisfactory answer. People cite these statistics as evidence, but they are only an indicator because they are not very accurate.
And when you then take inaccurate figures and then compare with non-compatible foreign data, those figures become extremely misleading.
Still, Andrew, I suppose that as long as it supports your take on things, that's OK as far as you are concerned.
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20-01-2022, 18:07
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#1450
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Leeds
Posts: 1,308
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max
Deary me, the conspiracy theorists are out in force.
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Yes it's unthinkable that Bojo would put his well being before that of the country, it's not like he has form for self serving behaviour.
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20-01-2022, 18:20
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#1451
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,589
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
He’ll want to wait for the report, or 2035, whichever is later…
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The Covid report will be written this year. Another inaccurate calculation on your part.....
---------- Post added at 18:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:08 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant
That's exactly why excess deaths is the best way to measure it. Those people would not have died it if were not for Covid. So even if they didn't have Covid, it caused their death.
It is a big problem, because there is a huge grey area. For example, if you have a chronic illness such as COPD, catch Covid, get hospitalised and die, have you died of Covid, or just with it? There is no clear answer.
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If people have died because they couldn't get an operation due to attention of hospitals being diverted elsewhere, it is not a Covid death. Excess deaths include many deaths which are not due to Covid, so again, this is at best an indicator.
---------- Post added at 18:20 ---------- Previous post was at 18:09 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Max
Deary me, the conspiracy theorists are out in force.
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Yes, the conspiracy theorists choose to ignore the fact that the review was due to take place anyway. Beware Hugh's biassed fact checker service!
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20-01-2022, 18:22
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#1452
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,918
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
The Covid report will be written this year. Another inaccurate calculation on your part.....
---------- Post added at 18:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:08 ----------
If people have died because they couldn't get an operation due to attention of hospitals being diverted elsewhere, it is not a Covid death. Excess deaths include many deaths which are not due to Covid, so again, this is at best an indicator.
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You seem to have completely missed the point.
The precise number of people who actually died directly due to a covid infection is interesting for all sorts of reasons but the nature of our society means it may well not be the most vital information.
In an advanced industrial society with a universal healthcare system, the overall effect on the system by a novel infection is of great importance. Excess deaths is certainly a far better indicator of the magnitude of the crisis and the measures we might need to put in place to improve resilience, precisely because it allows us to account - for example - for cancers that went undetected because someone couldn’t get to their GP soon enough.
Calling excess deaths “at best an indicator” is a word salad that doesn’t make you look as clever as you seem to think it does.
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20-01-2022, 18:33
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#1453
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
That is not a satisfactory answer. People cite these statistics as evidence, but they are only an indicator because they are not very accurate.
And when you then take inaccurate figures and then compare with non-compatible foreign data, those figures become extremely misleading.
Still, Andrew, I suppose that as long as it supports your take on things, that's OK as far as you are concerned.
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I'm afraid you're demonstrating your lack of subject knowledge. As I said, data collection is never 100% perfect. That's not unique to this particular data set. So not being 100% perfect is not a good reason to ignore it nor to not use it to make international comparisons, providing we understand how different data collection methods might impact different data sets.
Dismissing this information as "not very accurate" is simply wrong. To do so for obvious party political reasons is disappointing.
---------- Post added at 18:33 ---------- Previous post was at 18:29 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
Yep, that's pretty much how the WHO worked. Smallpox eradication worked because of;
- No asymptomatic carriers
- People REALLY didn't want to get Smallpox to vaccination take up was close to 100% when needed
- There are no animal carriers and the virus dies quickly when not inside a person
- The vaccine was easy to administer (no injections)
- The virus is pretty stable genetically so no new exciting variants popped up over time
- A global effort was in place with vaccines being manufactured by local suppliers
Interesting. Thank you for all your most informative threads on this thread and the Brexit one.
Polio hopefully is going the same way for the same reasons. There were only 5 wild cases noted globally last year
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20-01-2022, 19:21
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#1454
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,589
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
You seem to have completely missed the point.
The precise number of people who actually died directly due to a covid infection is interesting for all sorts of reasons but the nature of our society means it may well not be the most vital information.
In an advanced industrial society with a universal healthcare system, the overall effect on the system by a novel infection is of great importance. Excess deaths is certainly a far better indicator of the magnitude of the crisis and the measures we might need to put in place to improve resilience, precisely because it allows us to account - for example - for cancers that went undetected because someone couldn’t get to their GP soon enough.
Calling excess deaths “at best an indicator” is a word salad that doesn’t make you look as clever as you seem to think it does.
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I am not arguing that ‘excess deaths’ doesn’t indicate a measure of the crisis, of course it does.
But it does not measure deaths that are directly connected to Covid infection. That was my point.
---------- Post added at 19:21 ---------- Previous post was at 19:13 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
I'm afraid you're demonstrating your lack of subject knowledge. As I said, data collection is never 100% perfect. That's not unique to this particular data set. So not being 100% perfect is not a good reason to ignore it nor to not use it to make international comparisons, providing we understand how different data collection methods might impact different data sets.
Dismissing this information as "not very accurate" is simply wrong. To do so for obvious party political reasons is disappointing.
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Come on, Andrew, you are the one interpreting information to suit your argument.
Comparison of Covid deaths between countries when every country includes different criteria for producing the statistics is clearly inaccurate. And these are not small inaccuracies. If one country only records Hospital Covid deaths and another records all deaths including deaths in the community and in care homes, that’s a pretty big difference.
Similarly, if excess deaths includes people who are not having their health conditions monitored and those whose operations have been put back, this does reflect the scale of the problem, but what that figure is not showing is the number of Covid deaths.
I would have thought that all the pedants we encounter on this forum would recognise that immediately. But not when it doesn’t suit your argument, it seems.
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