Brexit discussion

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Of course, some people believe that the talks are making good progress and everyone else is deluded.

Whereas others believe everything’s an unmitigated disaster, and those who think otherwise are deluded.

Thankfully there is a broad middle ground where it’s possible to be both frustrated at Teresa May’s ineptitude yet also confident that such is the scale and impact of Brexit that nobody can afford to mess it up; both sides know this and when the day comes the EU will agree to fudge it one way or another, just as it always does.

It’s worth bearing in mind, by the way, that every risk assessment ever carried out by a school planning a trip has described the potential for death or serious injury. Describing a risk of something happening doesn’t mean it will happen or even that it’s likely.

As I said earlier, there is simply no way for Airbus to shift wing production to a location within the EU in the time available. Regardless of what happens next March, those wings will still be being made in Broughton this time next year and the year after that.

Also, consider the implications of the Times article you quoted. They’re claiming to be worried about tariffs and the loss of EU certifications and an EU supply chain whilst also pondering a production shift to China or the USA? That doesn’t even begin to stack up.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Whereas others believe everything’s an unmitigated disaster, and those who think otherwise are deluded.

Thankfully there is a broad middle ground where it’s possible to be both frustrated at Teresa May’s ineptitude yet also confident that such is the scale and impact of Brexit that nobody can afford to mess it up; both sides know this and when the day comes the EU will agree to fudge it one way or another, just as it always does.

It’s worth bearing in mind, by the way, that every risk assessment ever carried out by a school planning a trip has described the potential for death or serious injury. Describing a risk of something happening doesn’t mean it will happen or even that it’s likely.

As I said earlier, there is simply no way for Airbus to shift wing production to a location within the EU in the time available. Regardless of what happens next March, those wings will still be being made in Broughton this time next year and the year after that.

Also, consider the implications of the Times article you quoted. They’re claiming to be worried about tariffs and the loss of EU certifications and an EU supply chain whilst also pondering a production shift to China or the USA? That doesn’t even begin to stack up.

It would be a bit like the way Japanese TV manufacturers left the UK. Their existing cathode ray models continued to be made here. When they introduced their LCD models, they opened new factories in Eastern Europe to produce them and closed their British ones.
We've got a transition period of a couple of years. How long it would take a company like Airbus to up sticks I'm not sure but I'm sure sufficient of the workforce would be prepared to upsticks given that their skills wouldn't be in demand in many other places in the UK.

[jonbxx]

Airbus, like any large manufacturer would need to balance friction vs. costs of both moving and manufacture. The cost of moving is pretty much set and Airbus already manufactures in China and US so it would be more expansion than setting up new plants.

The UK is an expensive place to makes things. This will be balanced with frictionless movement between the UK and Toulouse so things even up. Airbus could move wing manufacture to the EU zone where the costs would be similar but frictionless or somewhere cheap and accept the friction costs. Expensive and friction doesn't add up.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Airbus, like any large manufacturer would need to balance friction vs. costs of both moving and manufacture. The cost of moving is pretty much set and Airbus already manufactures in China and US so it would be more expansion than setting up new plants.

The UK is an expensive place to makes things. This will be balanced with frictionless movement between the UK and Toulouse so things even up. Airbus could move wing manufacture to the EU zone where the costs would be similar but frictionless or somewhere cheap and accept the friction costs. Expensive and friction doesn't add up.

A good way of analysing the situation.
Some further insightful analysis from Paratus in the comments section of the FT.

Even allowing for the usual downward spiral into Brexit/Bremain accusations and counter-accusations in this comments string, I am still amazed at how ignorant most commenters here are of the part in the global aircraft industry that Airbus plays - and thus the UK's current stake in it.
Airbus produces roughy 800 commercial airliners a year. That's more or less 130 wings a month - most produced in 2 large UK factories: Filton and Hawarden (they're don't make all the parts for the whole wing - mainly the structural 'box'; but they do make several other Airbus-wing components).
There are 2 main elements that make an airliner more (or less) efficient, and therefore competitive: its engines and its wing-aerodynamics. On the latter, BAE Systems earned its place in the consortium not just because it could produce the wings themselves efficiently, but also because they've been critical to their design since the start of Airbus. These wings still are, arguably, the world's most aerodynamically-advanced for commercial-aircraft.

For all those folks mumbling on here about supply-chains, think 100+ aircraft wings per month, not cars. Once finished, these large objects are transported by specialised aircraft, barge, or ship; but before that, components within these sizeable structures come & go many times between suppliers and across borders before the final article (a multi-tonne wing-box) is ready to be shipped. Delay is not permissible: you don't set a couple of wings aside for each aircraft type in case there's a customs problem with next week's deliveries.

Going on here about assembly-lines in China or the USA merely reflects reality in today's globalised aircraft industry, not some death-knell for the home-industry...although customs and tariffs clearly play their part in arriving at 'the deal' in these markets. To sell any complex, expensive pieces of equipment into any large market, there is always offset, or local manufacture and/or assembly. For large markets (e.g. USA, China), incorporating 'local' assembly of aircraft, and/or manufacturing subassemblies in deals is a normal part of commercial life. For all that, though, the main assembly-work, technology, and design lead-times, still need to happen from within Airbus' (in this case) organisation, of which the UK is currently an important part.

However, a 10-year cycle in the aerospace business is nothing - in fact it's probably a minimum development, test and production life-cycle on any project seeking a business return. Airbus will have been thinking about the Brexit effect for at least 2 years - and its thinking will have had little to do with the logistics, per se, of moving large bits of aircraft around the world to assembly-lines, including its own: that's relatively easy, and already happens. (Boeing does the same.)

For Airbus to disengage itself from the UK-based parts of its business entails managing the disruption of a large-scale version of 'just-in-time' manufacturing. They'll not do that lightly - it'll be expensive as well as logistically-disruptive; but they'll have a lot less trouble achieving that than we (the UK) would in managing the enormous consequent losses to our technological and manufacturing knowledge-base.
Facts...

https://www.ft.com/content/595220cc-...6-75a27d27ea5f

[Dave42]

Airbus: 'No-deal' Brexit would be 'chaos at the borders'
The company would pull out of the UK if Britain leaves the single market and customs union without a transition agreement.

https://news.sky.com/story/airbus-no...rders-11413180

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Airbus: 'No-deal' Brexit would be 'chaos at the borders'
The company would pull out of the UK if Britain leaves the single market and customs union without a transition agreement.

https://news.sky.com/story/airbus-no...rders-11413180

Isn't it a bit more than that? They will pull out if the transition agreement does not lead to a permanent deal where there is no 'friction at the borders."

Of course, if Mrs May tries to edge towards such a deal to keep big business happy, she has Mr Mogg preparing to tear down such a deal:

DO NOT CAVE: Brexiteers will vote DOWN deal if May gives in to EU demands, warns Rees-Mogg

How would be the Prime Minister at a time like this?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Isn't it a bit more than that? They will pull out if the transition agreement does not lead to a permanent deal where there is no 'friction at the borders."

Of course, if Mrs May tries to edge towards such a deal to keep big business happy, she has Mr Mogg preparing to tear down such a deal:

DO NOT CAVE: Brexiteers will vote DOWN deal if May gives in to EU demands, warns Rees-Mogg

How would be the Prime Minister at a time like this?

Who would indeed? She's stuck between a rock (keeping business in the country) and a hard place (the hard Brexiters who are happy to throw the economy to the dogs for the sake of what they believe in.)

Public-facing companies have been reluctant to talk too much in public as they're afraid it could impact their sales and businesses that just sell to other businesses don't have much public awareness. However, Airbus does have strong public recognition so hopefully the Government and general public will sit up and take notice to stop the company leaving.

[Mr K]

Think it's time TM had a holiday, doesn't she look tired ?

Last time it was walking in North Wales. Bit of fresh air did her the world of good. She had the brilliant idea of calling an election to make her strong and stable....

Stuff the Brexiteers TM, they're all bonkers. It may be damage limitation, but just get the best deal for Britain is my advice. End of your career, but you've had a good run and a bit put by in the bank

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Think it's time TM had a holiday, doesn't she look tired ?

Last time it was walking in North Wales. Bit of fresh air did her the world of good. She had the brilliant idea of calling an election to make her strong and stable....

Stuff the Brexiteers TM, they're all bonkers. It may be damage limitation, but just get the best deal for Britain is my advice. End of your career, but you've had a good run and a bit put by in the bank

Doubt she'd be welcome in North Wales again given the possibility of Airbus leaving the country but she does need a holiday!

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by denphone

This is what you get when the government has created its own shambolic mess over the Brexit negotiations...

I am kind of surprised that more people have not stated that their companies will be leaving the UK, post EU referendum. With Scottish independence the nationalists called it "project fear" but I think that it was accurate that corporations would leave, jobs would go and the currency was an issue. In terms of the EU, if financial passporting rights are indeed gone that is a huge reality that the UK financial services sector will have to factor in. Jobs will end up being lost, companies will move huge amounts of capital overseas and that is to be expected. People now factor that in, as a given.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

I am kind of surprised that more people have not stated that their companies will be leaving the UK, post EU referendum.

Companies are starting to grow a pair. BMW has just done this.
The car giant BMW has followed plane maker Airbus in warning of the adverse consequences of Brexit.

[Chloé Palmas]

It is interesting the way that you worded that - "growing a pair". While yes, I would like if they did stand up to the nationalists of their own volition, I kind of see it more as just the reality of it all setting in. I can't see this as being anything other than just free market policies now setting in, you? I mean if you were looking at somewhere that had a stable political, monetary and fiscal environment in to grow jobs, start businesses and have a stable growth environment, where would you look to? Would you stay in the UK? It just looks like economic common sense, not anything like what was dubbed as "project fear".

[Carth]

I don't see many 'British' companies in these lists that are now coming out.

oh sorry, they were sold down the river years ago

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Doubt she'd be welcome in North Wales again given the possibility of Airbus leaving the country but she does need a holiday!

No airbus will be leaving without wings .

[Sephiroth]

All a load of tosh. Keep this real: with "friends" like Juncker, Barnier, Verhofstadt, Merkel and the two faces of Macron we shouldn't want to have anything to do with those vultures.

We are more than 60 million people and the UK can make it all work, with or without the EU - and for that matter the perfidious Irish PM.