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Brexit
View Poll Results: Who would you vote for in the European Elections?
Conservative Party 3 4.92%
Labour Party 5 8.20%
Liberal Democrats 14 22.95%
Brexit Party 24 39.34%
Change UK - The Independent Group 4 6.56%
Greens 1 1.64%
SNP 1 1.64%
UKIP 1 1.64%
Other 2 3.28%
Will not be voting. 6 9.84%
Voters: 61. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-04-2019, 09:58   #1456
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuart View Post
The problem, as I understand it, is threefold..
  1. The EU have to protect the border of the single market. Poltics aside, if they don't insist on alignment of customs regulations, they run the risk of the border between Northern and Southern Ireland becoming a weakpoint in the border of the Single Market. They cannot afford to allow this. The Brexiteers in charge of the government have, as I understand it, refused to offer regulatory alignment.
  2. To enforce the security would require customs checks. The systems required to do this without a hard border don't currently exist, and are unlikely to do so for several years.
  3. The Irish do not want a hard border, as to have one would not only potentially spark off trouble in Northern Ireland, but violate the Good Friday Agreement.

And before you say other countries are not EU members, but don't require hard borders, you'd likely be right (although Switzerland isn't apparently one of them as it does have checkpoints). They also have regulatory alignment, which we have refused.
The UK rules currently match the EUs and are not likely to diverge greatly in the near or even far future. Currently the UK has to check goods from outside the EU, so what is the problem? The product restrictions are on what is marketed and sold within the EU, not transported or even if made in the EU. Businesses in the EU, can and DO manufacture goods that don't meet EU rules


Why should it spark off trouble? Have the IRA truly gone away or are they and there huge number of supporters still issuing terrorist threats? As they ARE constantly issuing terrorist threats, ie X has to be done for the peace process, then the Good Friday Agreement isn't valid as it had to be with "consent freely given" and not under threats of continued violence.
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Old 10-04-2019, 10:49   #1457
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Re: Brexit

Another conditions being talked about from the EU: https://www.ft.com/content/683d5212-...e-7aedca0a081a

A option for the EU to force no deal if a future Tory Leader seeks to gain an advantage by vetoing EU budgets/decision. Essentially it makes the option to terminate the Article 50 extension available to both sides, UK or the EU, rather than just when we decide we want to leave.
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Old 10-04-2019, 10:53   #1458
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
The UK rules currently match the EUs and are not likely to diverge greatly in the near or even far future. Currently the UK has to check goods from outside the EU, so what is the problem? The product restrictions are on what is marketed and sold within the EU, not transported or even if made in the EU. Businesses in the EU, can and DO manufacture goods that don't meet EU rules
It's the 'not likely to' that's the problem. That requires a degree of trust on behalf of the importer that products still comply with local standards and there's no trust with this kind of thing, you have to prove it.

Third countries of course can export to the EU but the exporter has to show that the goods comply with EU regulations and the EU has to inspect goods to test this. For the example of CE marking, there are mutual recognition agreements so certain goods can be imported to the EU without additional testing and vice versa. Examples includes agreements with Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the USA, Israel and Switzerland. However, these agreements include the right to challenge any technical assessment at any time to ensure ongoing compliance. There's no trust involved...

You are right of course that EU manufacturers make products that are not legally sellable in the EU. There are some national technical requirements that differ so much from EU ones that they are mutually incompatible. The company I work for makes some machinery like this and they are very carefully segregated to make sure they are not sold in the EU
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Old 10-04-2019, 11:16   #1459
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx View Post
It's the 'not likely to' that's the problem. That requires a degree of trust on behalf of the importer that products still comply with local standards and there's no trust with this kind of thing, you have to prove it.

Third countries of course can export to the EU but the exporter has to show that the goods comply with EU regulations and the EU has to inspect goods to test this. For the example of CE marking, there are mutual recognition agreements so certain goods can be imported to the EU without additional testing and vice versa. Examples includes agreements with Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the USA, Israel and Switzerland. However, these agreements include the right to challenge any technical assessment at any time to ensure ongoing compliance. There's no trust involved...

You are right of course that EU manufacturers make products that are not legally sellable in the EU. There are some national technical requirements that differ so much from EU ones that they are mutually incompatible. The company I work for makes some machinery like this and they are very carefully segregated to make sure they are not sold in the EU
The pre-Dec 2020 of the withdrawal agreement deals with all this. The contentious issue is what happens afterwards and who has control.


Any checks are already made to goods coming into the UK. Anything that goes into the Republic of Ireland is a matter for them and the EU, NOT the UK. It is NOT for the EU to be dictating what we do on our side of any border.

Who should the EU trust more, the UK which had been part of it for decades or certain countries over in the East of Europe?
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Old 10-04-2019, 11:47   #1460
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
The UK rules currently match the EUs and are not likely to diverge greatly in the near or even far future. Currently the UK has to check goods from outside the EU, so what is the problem? The product restrictions are on what is marketed and sold within the EU, not transported or even if made in the EU. Businesses in the EU, can and DO manufacture goods that don't meet EU rules
The UK rules currently match the EU because we are in the single market. The EU want guarantees they will carry on matching the EU rules. Something the Brexiteers are apparently refusing.

The problem is that both Irish economies have adapted, so that a lot of businesses rely on free trade between the two economies. We do not have the infrastructure in place to cope with the extra load this will generate.

Quote:
Why should it spark off trouble? Have the IRA truly gone away or are they and there huge number of supporters still issuing terrorist threats? As they ARE constantly issuing terrorist threats, ie X has to be done for the peace process, then the Good Friday Agreement isn't valid as it had to be with "consent freely given" and not under threats of continued violence.
Why? The troubles were inflamed by the UK government's attempts to control Ireland. They weren't caused by that, as the real cause is buried in Ireland's history, and off topic for this post. The Irish do not want to see the re-introduction of checkpoints, probably because for many, they bring back horrific memories of what happened during the troubles.

However, as I understand it, one of the requirements of the GFA is free movement between the two areas.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:10   #1461
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuart View Post
The UK rules currently match the EU because we are in the single market. The EU want guarantees they will carry on matching the EU rules. Something the Brexiteers are apparently refusing.

The problem is that both Irish economies have adapted, so that a lot of businesses rely on free trade between the two economies. We do not have the infrastructure in place to cope with the extra load this will generate.

Why? The troubles were inflamed by the UK government's attempts to control Ireland. They weren't caused by that, as the real cause is buried in Ireland's history, and off topic for this post. The Irish do not want to see the re-introduction of checkpoints, probably because for many, they bring back horrific memories of what happened during the troubles.

However, as I understand it, one of the requirements of the GFA is free movement between the two areas.
The withdrawal agreement matches rules until Dec 2020. After that they're not going diverge greatly or quickly.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:17   #1462
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
The withdrawal agreement matches rules until Dec 2020. After that they're not going diverge greatly or quickly.
In which case the backstop won't be a massive issue then....
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:38   #1463
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Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Who would have thought the European Union would engage with a member state on how to protect the border of the single market.
The point I'm making is that if there's a no deal Brexit, the EU will find a way to ensure there is no border pretty damn quick.

So why are they huffing and puffing about having that backstop in place if a no deal Brexit would force them to address the problem now?

The argument for a backstop is a complete sham.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:49   #1464
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Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
The point I'm making is that if there's a no deal Brexit, the EU will find a way to ensure there is no border pretty damn quick..
Like what?
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Old 10-04-2019, 13:12   #1465
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
If May wants to facilitate a "good" Brexit option she should rescind Article 50, stand down as party leader and have the party elect a pro-Brexit leader (which the membership would).

A half decent leader would wipe the floor with Corbyn at an election then (assuming a sizeable majority) trigger A50 all over again towards a no deal on or around 1st October 2021 and for two years be clear that this is the unavoidable destination of Brexit.

Her deal essentially keeps us in until December 2020 anyway and it'd stop the Parliamentary shenanigans. It'd also smoke out the Labour Party policy on Brexit.
Completely agree.

---------- Post added at 13:12 ---------- Previous post was at 13:04 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Like what?
Based on the experience of the canned NHS IT system and the IT issues surrounding Crossrail's signalling systems, no one will risk unique, untried technology to solve the Irish border situation.
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Old 10-04-2019, 13:51   #1466
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
The point I'm making is that if there's a no deal Brexit, the EU will find a way to ensure there is no border pretty damn quick.

So why are they huffing and puffing about having that backstop in place if a no deal Brexit would force them to address the problem now?

The argument for a backstop is a complete sham.
Thereís no guarantee they would find away, however the Union and the Single Market cannot be threatened by the reckless indulgences of English nationalism. All reasonable preparations have to be made as clearly the UK cannot be trusted in this regard.
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Old 10-04-2019, 14:06   #1467
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
The point I'm making is that if there's a no deal Brexit, the EU will find a way to ensure there is no border pretty damn quick.

So why are they huffing and puffing about having that backstop in place if a no deal Brexit would force them to address the problem now?

The argument for a backstop is a complete sham.
You are assuming that the government can source the personnel and infrastructure needed with whatever resources they have. Bear in mind they don't have an infinite amount of money, even if they did, it takes time to implement the systems required and train the personnel. Also bear in mind this will be a massive IT project for the Government, and we all know they tend to take longer than expected, and come in over budget.

I say it will be a massive IT project, because they won't only need extra infrastructure in Ireland. They'll need it all over the UK.
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Old 10-04-2019, 15:33   #1468
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Re: Brexit

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
In which case the backstop won't be a massive issue then....
The backstop applies AFTER Dec 2020.
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Old 10-04-2019, 17:00   #1469
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Re: Brexit

Tenner says she chucks it tomorrow. Iíll even donate it to the Conservative Party!
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Old 10-04-2019, 19:06   #1470
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
The pre-Dec 2020 of the withdrawal agreement deals with all this. The contentious issue is what happens afterwards and who has control.


Any checks are already made to goods coming into the UK. Anything that goes into the Republic of Ireland is a matter for them and the EU, NOT the UK. It is NOT for the EU to be dictating what we do on our side of any border.

Who should the EU trust more, the UK which had been part of it for decades or certain countries over in the East of Europe?
There can be a few veterinary and phytosanitary checks on intra-EU moves but that's it. Show a declaration of conformity and off you go. As you said, it isn't likely that things will change much post transition but an exporter will need to prove that goods shipped still comply with EU regulations. If we do change our standards and diverge from EU ones, then that will create another tier of standards manufacturers will need to comply with. If we work to a two tier system, then the EU will need to inspect goods to see if they comply with their rules or our rules before letting them in. Of course we do this now for non-EU imports but suddenly there's a lot more goods that need checking going both ways. If we stick to the EU rules,we still need to prove that we do.


The question will always be where do manufacturers want to concentrate on and what gives the best margins? The EU market is bigger than the UKs so production lines will be slanted towards making goods for the EU market. Look at the Tesla Model 3 - there's a good reason why you can't buy a right hand drive model - the US, China and EU are much bigger markets than the UK, Japan, South Africa and Australia.

In international relations and business, there's no such thing as 'trust'. Treaties, agreements and rules are needed along with enforcement and conciliation. That's the EU in a nutshell - a series of treaties along with rules that help implement and facilitate the functioning of those treaties.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I send out the EU declarations of conformity all the time as part of my job. Just for chuckles, I wondered if you can get declarations of conformity online for anything and started with Cars. Ford charge €119 + VAT for theirs but Vauxhall let you download them for free. Here's one for for a 2019 Astra - https://www.vauxhall.co.uk/content/d...tra_K_MY19.pdf 247 pages! They have kindly translated it into every language in the EU which is a legal requirement if requested which does explain some of the size.

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