29-12-2021, 21:45
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#1111
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Dr Pepper Addict
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Nottingham
Age: 61
Services: Flextel SIP : Sky Mobile : Sky Q TV : VM BB (1000 Mbps) : Aquiss FTTP (330 Mbps)
Posts: 27,728
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
There’s no evidence of Covid killing anyone in significant numbers in the UK according to some
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In 2020, it was only just the top killer in England at 69,000.
Even the Flu/Pneumonia came in at 6th, killing almost 19,000.
The population of England was about 56.5 million in mid 2020, making covid deaths about 0.12%.
Quote:
2020
COVID-19 = 69,101
Dementia and Alzheimers disease = 66,060
Ischaemic heart diseases = 51,979
Cerebrovascular diseases = 27,681
Chronic lower respiratory diseases = 26,917
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung = 26,571
Influenza and pneumonia = 18,656
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https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/trans...ntia2016to2020
There are no final figures for 2021, but given the total covid deaths is about 172,000, that makes 103,000 in 2021.
That matches quite well with 2020, since the 69,000 were mostly from mid March 2020 onwards, i.e. about 9.5 months.
The majority of 2021 deaths were also in the first 3 months.
__________________
Baby, I was born this way.
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29-12-2021, 22:22
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#1112
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067
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Middlesbrough
Age: 48
Services: Many
Posts: 4,605
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
You do realise that we’re now 32 days on from the first identified omicron case in the uk? Passing off the falling death rate as a red herring is rapidly losing credibility. It’s been pretty obvious for about a week now that the death rate is being played down as a matter of public health policy because of the potential risk to the booster campaign. That doesn’t mean we can’t deal frankly with the data here though. There is simply no evidence of omicron killing anyone in any significant numbers in the UK, and the experience in South Africa, where the omicron wave is weeks ahead of ours, suggests that such evidence will not be forthcoming.
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Suggest you go back and listen to your Tory chums when they spoke at the start of the pandemic regarding the lag to people dying
The only reason its losing credibility is because it doesn’t fit your narrative.
Comparing South Africas wave to ours is like comparing apples to oranges Due to demographics, of course you already knew that.
Let’s see where deaths are in 3-4 weeks, if they haven’t significantly increased I’ll apologise
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Nerves of steel, heart of gold, knob of butter......
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29-12-2021, 22:32
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#1113
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,040
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
Let’s see where deaths are in 3-4 weeks, if they haven’t significantly increased I’ll apologise
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Ooh, i’ll bookmark that baby!
Are deaths usually 7-8 weeks behind the infection curve? I don’t know, but it looks like we’ll find out by the end of Jan.
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The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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29-12-2021, 22:32
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#1114
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,929
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
Suggest you go back and listen to your Tory chums when they spoke at the start of the pandemic regarding the lag to people dying
The only reason its losing credibility is because it doesn’t fit your narrative.
Comparing South Africas wave to ours is like comparing apples to oranges Due to demographics, of course you already knew that.
Let’s see where deaths are in 3-4 weeks, if they haven’t significantly increased I’ll apologise
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Don’t apologise to me by any means if you turn out to be incorrect. I’m interested in ideas, information and how we interpret and act on it. If I’m incorrect, so be it, but being incorrect isn’t offensive.
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29-12-2021, 23:08
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#1115
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,366
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
significantly
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There’s that word again.
Watch out in the absence of a definition they’ve got the easy win if deaths don’t rise in proportion with infections. As you could reasonably expect “if nothing changes”. A delta week to week comparison, or month to month comparison, before the booster campaign was fairly easy.
There’s two reasons this won’t happen - the collapse in vaccine efficacy against infection isn’t replicated effectiveness against hospitalisations. More people who wouldn’t have caught Delta in the first place will get Omicron but there’s still protection against hospitalisation and death by comparison to an unvaccinated population.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270
The second reason being the low hanging fruit of previous waves have already expired.
What the new cases/hospitalisations/deaths ratio lands at isn’t yet clear. School closures will have reduced the R number, plus delays in reporting data, lack of availability of testing, etc make this a rocky period for like for like comparisons to be made.
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29-12-2021, 23:38
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#1116
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,099
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Re: Coronavirus
What we can say is, for the last full week we have figures for, that daily hospitalisations have increased by 30%…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
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If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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30-12-2021, 00:22
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#1117
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Barry South Wales
Age: 68
Services: With VM for BB 250Mb service.(Deal)
Posts: 11,657
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Re: Coronavirus
Patients on venilation beds is pretty steady and has been for a while. In fact it's dropping slightly.
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30-12-2021, 05:09
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#1118
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cf.mega pornstar
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 18,802
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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Think I heard the national medical director say the nhs is on a war footing earlier
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30-12-2021, 10:04
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#1119
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,589
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Re: Coronavirus
So the NHS is now weaponised....
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Forumbox.co.uk
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30-12-2021, 10:08
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#1120
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,366
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
So the NHS is now weaponised....
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It’s all a conspiracy, OB. People are just admitting themselves to hospital because they are bored.
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30-12-2021, 10:45
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#1121
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 42,099
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
So the NHS is now weaponised....
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That statement says so much about your views - much more than you realise.
It’s basic risk management to put in place contingency for a potential increase in demand, not "weaponising the NHS*".
* did you get that phrase from the Telegraph or the Spectator?
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There is always light.
If only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
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30-12-2021, 11:30
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#1122
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Sulking in the Corner
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: RG41
Services: 1 Gbps; Hub 4 MM; ASUS RT-AX88U; Ultimate VOLT. BT Infinity2; Devolo 1200AV
Posts: 11,955
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
That statement says so much about your views - much more than you realise.
It’s basic risk management to put in place contingency for a potential increase in demand, not "weaponising the NHS*".
*did you get that phrase from the Telegraph or the Spectator?
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Only 52% of NHS staff in 2020 were professionally qualified clinical staff.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-info...tics/july-2020
The bureaucratic cost thus consumes a very high percentage of the budget that could have been used years ago to recruit and train additional medical staff. "Saving the NHS" is saving the bureaucracy as much as anything else. Once again, poor government has put us into this situation. This started in Blair's days when his lot became obsessed with internal markets and all the administrative bagged brought in with that.
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Seph.
My advice is at your risk.
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30-12-2021, 11:35
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#1123
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Woke and proud !
Join Date: Jun 2004
Services: TV, Phone, BB, a wife
Posts: 9,134
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Re: Coronavirus
Let's hope Boris and the 'right' will own the decision to ignore the scientific advice and let the country party on.
Or will he try to blame anyone else? The NHS are to blame for a start, obviously...
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30-12-2021, 11:47
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#1124
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: chavvy Nottingham
Age: 40
Services: Freeview, Sky+, 100 Mb/s VM BB, mega i7 PC, iPhone 13, Macbook Air
Posts: 7,365
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Re: Coronavirus
Though it's clearly an issue internally, I'm not totally convinced that NHS staffing levels due to sickness absence etc (or maybe just unable to fill vacancies) should ever be used to decide whether to lock the country down. Even though patients need to be treated it would be like closing the country down because Tesco couldn't get anyone to deliver stuff to their shops.
Even looking at the numbers of people going to hospital is a bit misleading now in terms of severity of illness, given that in relation to those having more lengthy stays (which is an issue) those having covid but going in for other things (which is an isolation issue, but not primarily them needing covid care) or needing minimal, short treatment seem to be much more commonplace. I think the stats are still showing those in critical care or on ventilators are not increasing or are actually going down which is more of an indicator of the severity in the hospitals than the numbers of those going into hospital with a positive test for covid.
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30-12-2021, 12:11
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#1125
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Do I care what you think
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Cardiff South Wales
Age: 73
Services: V6 ,Virgin L. Phone Broadband.sky go Netflix
Posts: 4,278
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Re: Coronavirus
Now know 3 people with COVID , none of whom thought they had it. All were sure it was flu , think it's a case that if you look hard enough you'll find it. In years gone by it was have not been recorded
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