Brexit discussion

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by denphone

Indeed one does not need to be Einstein to realise we are going to be poorer as even most Brexit voters fully admit that as a clear consequence of Brexit but alas OB can't take off his rose tinted political glasses to realise that Dave.

Indeed, Denphone. Whilst I thought Comical Ali was killed after the Iraq invasion, it appears he is still alive and living in Wokingham.
However, the economic impacts of Brexit are no laughing matter. Losing frictionless access to the largest market in the world for goods and services and one that is on our doorstep together with all its free trade deals across the world with countries like Chile, Canada and South Korea does not mean that the rest of the world will want to step in and replace it. Indeed, it's countries outside the EU with big investments in the UK like India, Japan and Canada who are warning us about the follies of a hard Brexit, even if the backstop agreement were to permit such a thing!
There's an in-depth article today in the FT looking at customs processes, supply chains and just-in-time manufacturing in the car industry. It makes for sobering reading.

If Britain were to leave the customs union, Honda estimates European parts will take a minimum of two to three days to reach the plant, and possibly as long as nine days. Delivery times of finished cars may also be just as unpredictable.
To a car industry famed for its clockwork tempo, the potential delays pose an existential challenge. A warehouse capable of holding nine days’ worth of Honda stock would need to be roughly 300,000 sq m — one of the largest buildings on earth. Its floorspace would be equivalent to 42 football pitches, almost three times Amazon’s main US distribution centre. And its cost to operate would be as eye-catching as its proportions.

https://www.ft.com/content/8f46b0d4-...7-1e1a0846c475

Personally, I'm optimistic that common sense will prevail and that Britain will effectively remain in a customs and goods union with the EU.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

Indeed one does not need to be Einstein to realise we are going to be poorer as even most Brexit voters fully admit that as a clear consequence of Brexit but alas OB can't take off his rose tinted political glasses to realise that Dave.

No-one here has yet explained why more trade makes us poorer. Do you actually know, or are you simply chanting the same old mantra?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Dave42

even the main Brextremists are admitting we be poorer and Boris heard say f business because they telling the truth and more people realising vast majority of people gonna lot lot poorer

Hold on, I never accepted being a lot, lot poorer, just a bit poorer, tiny bit at that

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Indeed, Denphone. Whilst I thought Comical Ali was killed after the Iraq invasion, it appears he is still alive and living in Wokingham.
However, the economic impacts of Brexit are no laughing matter. Losing frictionless access to the largest market in the world for goods and services and one that is on our doorstep together with all its free trade deals across the world with countries like Chile, Canada and South Korea does not mean that the rest of the world will want to step in and replace it. Indeed, it's countries outside the EU with big investments in the UK like India, Japan and Canada who are warning us about the follies of a hard Brexit, even if the backstop agreement were to permit such a thing!
There's an in-depth article today in the FT looking at customs processes, supply chains and just-in-time manufacturing in the car industry. It makes for sobering reading.

https://www.ft.com/content/8f46b0d4-...7-1e1a0846c475

Personally, I'm optimistic that common sense will prevail and that Britain will effectively remain in a customs and goods union with the EU.

We will get a deal, and we will have a frictionless border. All these negative scenarios about being poorer are based on an assumption that this will not happen.

How, exactly, do you think we will be able to forge our own trade deals if we remain in the customs union? That notion is a fantasy. The government has made it very clear. We will be out of the EU, out of the common market and out of the customs union. A way will be found to achieve a frictionless border.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

No-one here has yet explained why more trade makes us poorer. Do you actually know, or are you simply chanting the same old mantra?

l don't chant any mantra at all as l don't follow any crowd as please explain and prove to me why you don't think this country will not be poorer? as thus so far all we have so far is your usual very predictable straw man argument approach.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

We will get a deal, and we will have a frictionless border. All these negative scenarios about being poorer are based on an assumption that this will not happen.

How, exactly, do you think we will be able to forge our own trade deals if we remain in the customs union? That notion is a fantasy. The government has made it very clear. We will be out of the EU, out of the common market and out of the customs union. A way will be found to achieve a frictionless border.

As Professor Minford of Economists for Brexit made clear, we're part of a European supply change. He was in favour of a hard Brexit but said that the UK would cease to be a significant manufacturer if that happened. We don't have the kind of internal supply chain that larger countries like China do. By geography we are part of a European supply chain.
I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag and the implications of the choices that the country has to make are becoming clear. Boris's F-business rant says it all and unlike the Heathrow vote, he can't fly out of the country to miss it.

---------- Post added at 09:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

No-one here has yet explained why more trade makes us poorer. Do you actually know, or are you simply chanting the same old mantra?

You'd be better off posing that question to a Trump supporter on that thread.
The question with Brexit is how less trade with the developing world, Asia Pacific, America and Europe and on worse terms with more red tape will make us richer.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

l don't chant any mantra at all as l don't follow any crowd as please explain and prove to me why you don't think this country will not be poorer? as thus so far all we have so far is your usual very predictable straw man argument approach.

I've already explained myself. There will be more trade because we will get a tariff free trade deal and there will be frictionless borders. That will not make us poorer, now, will it?

However, a hard Brexit would make us a bit poorer for a time, while we adjust to the new arrangements.

---------- Post added at 10:00 ---------- Previous post was at 09:55 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

As Professor Minford of Economists for Brexit made clear, we're part of a European supply change. He was in favour of a hard Brexit but said that the UK would cease to be a significant manufacturer if that happened. We don't have the kind of internal supply chain that larger countries like China do. By geography we are part of a European supply chain.
I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag and the implications of the choices that the country has to make are becoming clear. Boris's F-business rant says it all and unlike the Heathrow vote, he can't fly out of the country to miss it.

---------- Post added at 09:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 ----------


You'd be better off posing that question to a Trump supporter on that thread.
The question with Brexit is how less trade with the developing world, Asia Pacific, America and Europe and on worse terms with more red tape will make us richer.

Your first paragraph again refers to a hard Brexit. That is what we will not have under the Government's plan.

Your second paragraph assumes that our trade with the rest of the world will diminish, whereas our ability to forge new trade deals tailored to our needs will increase it.

I agree that without a trade deal, WTO rules for all our trade will produce disruption in the short term, but that is not the scenario the government envisages.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Hold on, I never accepted being a lot, lot poorer, just a bit poorer, tiny bit at that

Your "a lot poorer" might be someone else's " a bit poorer"

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I've already explained myself. There will be more trade because we will get a tariff free trade deal and there will be frictionless borders. That will not make us poorer, now, will it?

You only get frictionless trade by staying in the Customs Union and Single Market or something very close to it. Neither is acceptable to the business hating elite like BoJo and Rees-Mogg.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You only get frictionless trade by staying in the Customs Union and Single Market or something very close to it. Neither is acceptable to the business hating elite like BoJo and Rees-Mogg.

We do not need to be in a customs union. We can have an agreement which does not fetter our ability to trade with the rest of the world, but there is no point in staying in the Customs Union but pulling out of the EU. That simply doesn't make sense.

We will get a bespoke deal that addresses all these issues, but remaining in the Customs Union won't be one of them. If it was, we would be better staying in the EU, and that's what I would call looking forward to a dystopian future, where we lose the ability to govern ourselves and by stealth have all our freedoms taken away by bureaucrats, who finally thwart the politicians.

The future outside of the EU, by comparison, is distinctly rosy. I do believe the country is ready to take on the challenge.

---------- Post added at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 11:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Dave42

even the main Brextremists are admitting we be poorer and Boris heard say f business because they telling the truth and more people realising vast majority of people gonna lot lot poorer

I think you will find that this is based on a hard Brexit and falling back on WTO rules.

I see no reason why the country would be poorer if Theresa May achieves the trade deal she's said she will get, and remains confident of getting.

---------- Post added at 12:21 ---------- Previous post was at 12:17 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

^^^

this.

the only people pushing the idea of a hard border is the EU

they are using the good Friday agreement (something they have nothing to do with) as political capital

That's right, Pierre. Anyway, there are no shortage of ideas being put forward which could be harnessed to provide a solution to the Irish border 'problem'. Here's another one.

https://brexitcentral.com/practical-...-irish-border/

Extract:

Tier 1: Gold Standard treatment: Major Authorised Economic Operators (MAEO) for major commercial operations carrying high volume, low risk traffic. The EU already has an operational AEO scheme with lorries carrying stickers in their windows. A similar system is used on the US/Canadian and Mexican borders entitled Free and Safe Trade (FAST). This involves a number of checks in advance and participants declare their cargoes in advance online. No checks are made at the border.

The existing ‘trusted trader’ scheme works very well alongside: this ensures commercial operators that meet certain standards are given a special status with reduced paperwork, fewer document controls, priority treatment, and reduced delays and inspections. This is again successfully used on the US-Canada border with trucks hardly changing gear.

Tier 2: Silver Standard: A Special Authorised Economic Operators (SpAEO) based too on the existing EU AEO scheme but limited to the island of Ireland. This will be for the majority of participants and be more relaxed and very affordable for the MAEO treatment. Everything would be online and everyone would have their own account.

This scheme would work well for the estimated 80-90 percent of cross border trade in Ireland accounted for by small businesses – SMEs or micro-businesses – which are predominately in agriculture.

Tier 3: Bronze Standard: Pre-arrival Customs Clearance (PACC). This is based on best practice in pre-clearance systems worldwide and is limited to occasional and low-value transactions, and small scale operators in vans. It would all be done online.

The aim would be to make the system no more onerous than making an online application for a credit card or the London congestion charge system where payments can be made in advance or on the following day. The PACC’s aim should be to clear in as little as one hour before travel, a performance standard major countries meet now. The EU Customs Code already provides for the Simplified/Supplemental Declaration procedure for registered businesses.

BREAKING: European Union Withdrawal Bill receives Royal Assent from the Queen. Brexit becomes Law.

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

But the Shengen migrants are contained in France. They cannot get to Ireland.

Only because Ireland has an opt out. What if Ireland decides to become a part of the SA?

How can more trade make us poorer?

It doesn't, which is why being a member of the CU has not made us poorer, at all.

The EU are the ones who are pro trade, not the ones that are pro union / anti-globalization and protectionist.

That would be the modern day populists in the UK government and round the world.

Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas

Only because Ireland has an opt out. What if Ireland decides to become a part of the SA?



It doesn't, which is why being a member of the CU has not made us poorer, at all.

The EU are the ones who are pro trade, not the ones that are pro union / anti-globalization and protectionist.

That would be the modern day populists in the UK government and round the world.

I’d have to look into it to be sure but I suspect Ireland is outside Schengen because the U.K. is. The British Isles has a common travel area of its own, which long predates Schengen. Ireland may well desire to be within Schengen but the reality is that if they were forced to choose - and they were - then the CTA is of greater value to them. Think of it as the Brexit/Irish border issue viewed from a different angle.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: European Union Withdrawal Bill receives Royal Assent from the Queen. Brexit becomes Law.

You can almost smell freedom in the air

[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

We do not need to be in a customs union. We can have an agreement which does not fetter our ability to trade with the rest of the world, but there is no point in staying in the Customs Union but pulling out of the EU. That simply doesn't make sense.

No...none of the vote to leave the EU has at all, to date.

Let's see what we can make of it, though.

You are right, the UK does not need to be in a custom's union...nobody is disputing that.

You just can't have friction-less trade with the EU then.

Your call to make.

We will get a bespoke deal that addresses all these issues, but remaining in the Customs Union won't be one of them.

How can you be so sure that you will get such a deal...how do you know that other nations don't just say "thanks, but no - we don't want a FTA with the UK either...we'll just go to WTO rules as well". Well?

The future outside of the EU, by comparison, is distinctly rosy. I do believe the country is ready to take on the challenge.

Half of the country was avidly opposed to taking the challenge in the first place....