Coronavirus

[ianch99]

From what I understand, the COVID virus is stopping being sequenced in the various countries it is found. This removes the ability to detect new variants if I understand this correctly. Why is this important? So far the virus has mutated to a more benign, relative to first variant, form and it is the hope that this will continue to do so. However this trajectory is not guaranteed so when we are about to get ~10% of the world's population infected when these people have possibly less than effective vaccine cover, we are rolling the dice big style. More infections == high chance of vaccine evading mutations.

I feel the Covid weariness could come back to bite us ..

[jfman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ers-from-china

And it’s a u-turn!

I suppose when you’re a Government devoid of ideas it’s a good dog whistle, feigns the impression of taking action and allows them to put their feet up for a bit.

[Taf]

Originally Posted by jfman

And it’s a u-turn!

Not a U-turn, but a late decision based on the CCP's lack of transparency.

The EU is not happy with Italy requiring testing before entry. But they had 52% infected on just 2 planes from China a few days ago. Whilst there was a ban on flights from China by the CCP?

[jfman]

With prevalence that high people will inevitably test negative and go on to develop Covid. Or travel indirectly, or get infected at interchange airports, etc.

It’s a big sieve, and doesn’t even inform or influence steps the Government will take in any case. Would they bring in targeted community testing or contact tracing for a hypothetical concerning new variant? If not, then testing arrivals from a single location is merely performative. Against a backdrop of ongoing community transmission in any case.

[nffc]

Requiring a negative test is probably as far as would be reasonable to go.


But as rightly stated, it's not perfect at all. If you got the test whilst they were waiting to get on the plane for a long flight like China you could get someone test negative at the airport but be towards the end of the incubation period, develop symptoms and test positive on landing, and then you'd have an exposure at worst with the whole plane, all of whom might take several days to get the virus or not.



Even a negative test on landing doesn't mean that person will not then get covid from being exposed to it in the end of their trip or on a coach to the airport, within the airport, on the plane etc & then get it over the next few days when they have gone back home and to work, school etc.


Closing the border entirely wouldn't work either as people would have already arrived before then and they could always go through other countries.


The real only solution is mandatory hotel quarantine for all arrivals from China for a wwk or maybe up to 10 days. But this costs and can itself seed infection within the quarantine facility (and has done elsewhere).



If the variants currently circulating in China weren't thought to be the same as those in the rest of the world, and they had something similar to Delta when it emerged, for example, then it would make more sense to increase arrival measures on the area, but largely speaking experience with this has shown it doesn't work.



So the testing will probably just come under the banner of "look like we're doing something" without thinking as to whether those restrictions are going to actually do anything.



Let's also be fair the testing and isolation rules we had didn't stop it either. Nor does it if you're more strict and get any positive tests into isolation facilities and lock down whole communities for months on end like they have been in China. Living with it and managing covid like it's a cold or flu in terms of measures (i.e. manage the symptoms, stay home or away from vulnerable people until you're better, etc) is probably as likely to keep it under sensible control without applying restrictions which are performative and have less benefit compared to inconvenience.



The threat of new variants is hypothetical (in fact there has been a suggested link between a certain antiviral and mutation, when in immunocompromised patients) and less testing has fewer opportunities for sequencing making it harder to detect.



But i'm not sure what could be done about China which would actually work

[jfman]

Requiring a negative test might pass the reasonable test but it fails the effectiveness test in the absence of a joined up response to manage a pandemic. If the latter isn’t required then why impose the former. The next variant to provoke a wave in the UK will already be in the system at low levels rising as the current variants fall. The absence of testing on any meaningful level guarantees this.

The one after that could come from anywhere. The reality is a “concerning variant” will be embedded in the UK population before it hits any triggers (hospitalisations/deaths). Before that point the line will be we have widespread immunity.

[nffc]

Originally Posted by jfman

Requiring a negative test might pass the reasonable test but it fails the effectiveness test in the absence of a joined up response to manage a pandemic. If the latter isn’t required then why impose the former. The next variant to provoke a wave in the UK will already be in the system at low levels rising as the current variants fall. The absence of testing on any meaningful level guarantees this.

The one after that could come from anywhere. The reality is a “concerning variant” will be embedded in the UK population before it hits any triggers (hospitalisations/deaths). Before that point the line will be we have widespread immunity.

So what would your proposed plan be to deal with the infections half way around the world then?

[Ms NTL]

The Italians started sequencing most positive cases arriving from China. We do not have the money to do that, we have the machines but not consumables...

https://www.politico.eu/article/ital...sitors-so-far/

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Ms NTL

The Italians started sequencing most positive cases arriving from China. We do not have the money to do that, we have the machines but not consumables...

https://www.politico.eu/article/ital...sitors-so-far/

You got a reference for that assertion, please? If it's true it's rather worrying.

[Kursk]

Can we 'safely' assume that what these travellers might bring is a variation of the known virus or do we need to be watching too for something entirely new?; who knows how many more of these novel viruses are being incubated? Coronavirus has killed 7m worldwide and hammered our economies: we're not out of the woods yet.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nffc

So what would your proposed plan be to deal with the infections half way around the world then?

Why do I need a proposed plan to point out the current one is entirely ineffective?

---------- Post added at 05:43 ---------- Previous post was at 05:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Kursk

Can we 'safely' assume that what these travellers might bring is a variation of the known virus or do we need to be watching too for something entirely new?; who knows how many more of these novel viruses are being incubated? Coronavirus has killed 7m worldwide and hammered our economies: we're not out of the woods yet.

There’s no real reason to expect that to come from China bar xenophobia. Or perhaps a sentimental “what if” nod to what could have been in 2019.

Hospitalisations are up in the USA, deaths in Japan. Or they might just be about to jump onto the Tube for some New Year celebrations. If variants are a concern it’s the perpetual rolling of the dice that’s the issue, not China.

As ianch99 points out at the top of the page countries that aren’t routinely testing therefore aren’t sequencing. Sure, there are other methods (wastewater testing) but by the time they show up community transmission will be well underway. Unless there was a single outlier symptom to tell people to look out for, invite testing and implement contact tracing it’s already unstoppable.

[Ms NTL]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You got a reference for that assertion, please? If it's true it's rather worrying.

NHS has no money. They will give the sequencing to private companies with new funding.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Kursk

Can we 'safely' assume that what these travellers might bring is a variation of the known virus or do we need to be watching too for something entirely new?; who knows how many more of these novel viruses are being incubated? Coronavirus has killed 7m worldwide and hammered our economies: we're not out of the woods yet.

we can safely assume they won't bring anything we want, I would ban all travel from china, keeping us safe should be the priority.

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

we can safely assume they won't bring anything we want, I would ban all travel from china, keeping us safe should be the priority.

I agree Papa although, apparently, that makes us both xinophobic, or something like that

[nffc]

Originally Posted by jfman

Why do I need a proposed plan to point out the current one is entirely ineffective?

Because it shows that as ever you are quite happy to sit there calling everyone's ideas and points crap without coming up with your own solutions to the issue.


As you seem to have nothing positive to offer, then you have lost rights to criticise.