Brexit

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That will be determined by the EU/UK trade deal.

Well exactly but there will be concessions to the EU on that trade deal at which point people will shout betrayal.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well exactly but there will be concessions to the EU on that trade deal at which point people will shout betrayal.

Those who think a new leader will be the great panacea to cure everything are sadly going to be very disappointed.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by pip08456

I don't think it is as simple as that. At present despite 3yrs of negotiation no deal has been placed on the table to be agreed. All we have had is a flawed withdrawal agreement proposed which has the potential to keep us in the EU indefinitely. Parliament has rejected that.

Thanks to lily livered remain MP's the EU has been given the confidence to refuse to change the terms of the WA.

A PM who is willing to force through a no deal exit would not be advocating not having a deal with the EU just that EU intransigence on the withdrawal agreement meant leave first and then negotiate a deal.

Faced with someone willing to walk away without a deal alters the whole dynamics of negotiations.

So Pip, well known we are poles apart on many different viewpoints but I'd like you to answer honestly.

1) Do you not realistically think that the EU has had the position of confidence since the start? If not, why not?

2) Do you think that a no deal scenario whilst achieving one form of Brexit is in fact nothing more than a race to the bottom, with the EU better placed to be able to absorb and manage the implications of a no deal exit better than the UK ? If not, why not?

3) If the UK could force a no deal exit, How do you think the EU would factor this into subsequent trade negotiations?

4) What does the UK provide or manufacture that is of such vital importance to the EU that allow us to hold an upper hand in trade negotiations?

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The withdrawal agreement is dead and there are no viable options to replace it. Therefore we leave without a deal and we invoke GATT Article 24 to provide us with a period of protection until we get a trade deal.

This is the only way we can respect the referendum result.

Yeah, you might need to check out this on how we can invoke Article XXIV - https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

[Angua]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Yeah, you might need to check out this on how we can invoke Article XXIV - https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

Trouble has always been, lack of clarity and openness about what the WA was trying to achieve. Keeping everything so close to her chest is why people are bleating about the WA.

Had she shared this negotiation and genuinely compromised from the start, we would probably have left on 29th March.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by denphone

Those who think a new leader will be the great panacea to cure everything are sadly going to be very disappointed.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind thinks that

[ianch99]

Boris is marking out his leadership territory:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/...18251234136066

Boris Johnson has set out his Brexit stance. V significant:

“A new leader will have the opportunity to do things differently and have the momentum of a new administration. We will leave the EU on October 31 deal or no deal. The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal"

Not surprising. Varadkar has been on the airwaves this morning. He sounds a bit nervous.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by denphone

Those who think a new leader will be the great panacea to cure everything are sadly going to be very disappointed.

Yep. Same problem of a Parliament that won’t allow no deal but won’t vote for a deal.

We may not have Exit Polls but we do have turnout numbers and, surprisingly, it's not been a blockbuster turnout. In fact it's only marginally higher than the last time: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/stat...32062716448768

The first regional turnout figure is in for the EU elections.
North-east England had a turnout of 32.7%, a tiny increase on 31.6% in 2014.
(total votes cast as % of electorate)

East of England also in: 36.4%, down very slightly from 36.6% in 2014.

South-west England turnout is 40.5%, up from 37.4% in 2014.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Agreed. Very peculiar.

---------- Post added at 13:43 ---------- Previous post was at 13:41 ----------


Which could include the customs union and single market or something g very similar.

Why on Earth would Boris want that?

[jfman]

Boris will take anything that keeps him in the top job.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well exactly but there will be concessions to the EU on that trade deal at which point people will shout betrayal.

We will be in a much better position to negotiate with that dreadful lot when outside the EU. I can be very clear that Boris will not agree to have us in a customs union because he wants to sign up to trade deals with other countries.

---------- Post added at 17:44 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

Those who think a new leader will be the great panacea to cure everything are sadly going to be very disappointed.

No, they won't, Den. Boris will get the support of the ERG and the DUP, giving him the ability to get a majority to leave the EU.

[jfman]

The fact it's Boris flogging a dead horse doesn't change the reality the horse is dead. Parliament doesn't want this deal and Parliament doesn't want no deal.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Yeah, you might need to check out this on how we can invoke Article XXIV - https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

I've seen all that nonsense, but this is put forward by people who don't want to see Britain leave. Look, Article 24 exists, and all that is required is a joint statement of intent about what the EU and the UK wants to achieve from a trade agreement.

Even if there were an objection raised by another country, it would take 2 years at least to go through the legal process, by when we should have a trade agreement.