Coronavirus

[daveeb]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Being a key worker I don't have the option of cowering in the corner and I'm glad you had a good day, let's hope no one died for it

I'm sure the Christmas jollities played no part in todays record number of Covid cases and deaths, we probably caught the virus off guard as it would never expect such a great opportunity to happen.

Given that the record numbers are in the areas that were already in T4, and had no 'jollies', yes.

Its also almost certain that most (if not all) of those deaths were people already in hosptial before xmas.

Originally Posted by Paul

Given that the record numbers are in the areas that were already in T4, and had no 'jollies', yes.

Its also almost certain that most (if not all) of those deaths were people already in hosptial before xmas.

Does that mean, since the infection and hospitalisation rates have accelerated since then

Covid infections rose by almost a third between Boxing Day and 3 January, reaching 70,000 new cases a day according to a major study.

the death rate will keep rising?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55594107

[jfman]

It's not the deaths now that are a consequence of Christmas - it's the ones in two weeks or so, that said we've implemented the 28 day cut off to massage the figures.

Originally Posted by Hugh

Does that mean, since the infection and hospitalisation rates have accelerated since then the death rate will keep rising?

Probably, but thats not relevant to the point in question.

They have not shot up because a few people had a day of extra mixing with [some of] their families (in none T4 areas).

For that matter, they are not currently accelerating everywhere either.
In my local authority area (which is not small btw), cases have actually being going down since Dec 28th. There have 2 deaths recorded in 2021.

[Jimmy-J]

Is there any data/figures for the deaths caused by covid alone, without the person having any other underlying conditions?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Jimmy-J

Is there any data/figures for the deaths caused by covid alone, without the person having any other underlying conditions?

Probably not, as that wouldn’t make it look as bad as it does, and we need to keep the country at peak fear.

At least this new variant seems to rippping through the population at a pace, vaccination + infection at this speed and we’ll all be done by spring!

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Probably not, as that wouldn’t make it look as bad as it does, and we need to keep the country at peak fear.

At least this new variant seems to rippping through the population at a pace, vaccination + infection at this speed and we’ll all be done by spring!

If the 15 February deadline is met for treating the elderly and vulnerable, hospital admissions will reduce drastically by the turn of the month and we should be able to end the lockdown and ease the restrictions. By April, I don't see the need for any restrictions at all, provided that deadline is met and the variants don't start getting up to further mischief, like attacking the younger people as well.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Probably not, as that wouldn’t make it look as bad as it does, andwe need to keep the country at peak fear

At least this new variant seems to rippping through the population at a pace, vaccination + infection at this speed and we’ll all be done by spring!

Why would all the Governments of the world, even the ones who hate each other, do this?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

If the 15 February deadline is met for treating the elderly and vulnerable, hospital admissions will reduce drastically by the turn of the month and we should be able to end the lockdown and ease the restrictions. By April, I don't see the need for any restrictions at all, provided that deadline is met and the variants don't start getting up to further mischief, like attacking the younger people as well.

Somewhat over-optimistic on many fronts.

---------- Post added at 09:52 ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Why would all the Governments of the world, even the ones who hate each other, do this?

The capitalist driven, socialist revolution of course!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

If the 15 February deadline is met for treating the elderly and vulnerable, hospital admissions will reduce drastically by the turn of the month and we should be able to end the lockdown and ease the restrictions. By April, I don't see the need for any restrictions at all, provided that deadline is met and the variants don't start getting up to further mischief, like attacking the younger people as well.

If the elderly and vulnerable are all treated by 15th February, why do you propose locking down the country in March?

---------- Post added at 11:00 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Why would all the Governments of the world, even the ones who hate each other, do this?

I'm guessing that Pierre thinks that we need to exaggerate the global pandemic as people wouldn't comply with the restrictions if we told it "accurately".

[heero_yuy]

I see they've wheeled out lizard man to front a new covid message: If you go out people will die.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

I see they've wheeled out lizard man to front a new covid message: If you go out people will die.

He lost all credibility when he wheeled out his bull shyte graphs.

[jonbxx]

Governments do have a tough balancing act when it comes to their messaging as the general public are terrible and understanding risk and tend to be quite parochial, only seeing what is around them.

In real terms, the chance of any one individual dying of COVID are pretty small. However, the population is big so even with a small fatality rate, the numbers get big very quickly with the effects that come with that. If people think that the risk is small, they haven’t heard of anyone dying around them, they will start to say ‘I will take my chances’ and that’s where trouble lies. Or put it another way, with an infection fatality rate of 1% things don’t sound too bad until you extrapolate to the entire population of the UK and you have 650,000 deaths if everyone caught it.

Of course, each person does their own risk assessment. You see it on this forum with different levels of concern. For a country wide communication, you need to really hit out at the least risk averse and it seems like an increasingly powerful message is needed.

Of course, the consequence of this is scaring the bejeesus out of people who were already concerned. This will have a knock on effect down the line when things ease up and we want to kick start the economy. We did this last time, effectively bribing people to come out and be economically active with the Eat Out to Help Out scheme (of course, this may of restarted the transmission in the UK but that’s a different thing)

Finding the right balance to get the least risk averse to toe the line while not scaring the more meek is a tough one!

---------- Post added at 13:05 ---------- Previous post was at 12:55 ----------

One follow up thought, a lot of people are not happy with the governments interfering in their life and lifestyle - no one tells me what to do, it’s not the Goverments job to restrict liberty, etc. The upshot of behaviours leading from this, breaking lockdowns, taking risks and all that will increase the chances of goverment interference when you end up in hospital. We take the NHS for granted as that ‘always there’ safety net

Liz Windsor and Phil the Greek have had their jabs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55602007