Coronavirus

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Kate McCann has been posting on Twitter a number of schools sending out emails this evening saying the school will not be opening tomorrow. Some even not for vulnerable or key workers children.

This is going to be a sh*tstorm tomorrow, gives parents no to very little time to make alt arrangements.

Blame our wonderful leader. Trying to do what's popular and not what's needed. He'll just have to end closing schools for longer and having restrictions for longer as a result. Its a recurring theme.

Watched a bit of the cricket from New Zealand overnight. Full crowd, no masks, life as normal. Maybe be Bozza could take a few tips in leadership.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Blame our wonderful leader. Trying to do what's popular and not what's needed. He'll just have to end closing schools for longer and having restrictions for longer as a result. Its a recurring theme.

Watched a bit of the cricket from New Zealand overnight. Full crowd, no masks, life as normal. Maybe be Bozza could take a few tips in leadership.

Or maybe he could reduce our population by 90% and relocate us to the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Or maybe he could reduce our population by 90% and relocate us to the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Success is success and while Boris can’t do what you’ve stated there are simple tasks that he could undertake - following the scientific advice at the time rather than weeks/months later would be a reasonable start. As would clear messaging to the public rather than finding out what’s about to happen from Robert Peston (or others) Twitter feed.

---------- Post added at 09:47 ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

Blame our wonderful leader. Trying to do what's popular and not what's needed. He'll just have to end closing schools for longer and having restrictions for longer as a result. Its a recurring theme.

Watched a bit of the cricket from New Zealand overnight. Full crowd, no masks, life as normal. Maybe be Bozza could take a few tips in leadership.

Now, now, Mr. K you know full well Boris can never be wrong. Those pesky Civil Servants must be delaying all that scientific advice or keeping it from him altogether. In fact, they must also be feeding him lines they know to be false to make him look stupid like “schools are safe”.

Originally Posted by jfman

Success is success and while Boris can’t do what you’ve stated there are simple tasks that he could undertake - following the scientific advice at the time rather than weeks/months later would be a reasonable start. As would clear messaging to the public rather than finding out what’s about to happen from Robert Peston (or others) Twitter feed.

---------- Post added at 09:47 ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 ----------



Now, now, Mr. K you know full well Boris can never be wrong. Those pesky Civil Servants must be delaying all that scientific advice or keeping it from him altogether. In fact, they must also be feeding him lines they know to be false to make him look stupid like “schools are safe”.

I agree, New Zealand has been successful. The Blessed Madonna Our Lady Jacinda played her hand well. But it was a very good hand to begin with - something that is rarely acknowledged by those who make dim-witted, two-dimensional comparisons between the situation in NZ and just about any other western nation in the world.

On the matter of Boris, I simply point out (not for the first time) that despite relatively minor differences in policy, the present situation in England and Scotland is not very different.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by pip08456

An interesting article from Japan.



https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ins-normality/

I’m not professing any expertise but That’s what haS always been said, and known.

Viruses are essentially symbiotic. If a virus kills its host it will eventually run out of hosts.

The reason why this one was slightly more dangerous that the other corona viruses we live with daily, is that it was novel.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

I agree, New Zealand has been successful. The Blessed Madonna Our Lady Jacinda played her hand well. But it was a very good hand to begin with - something that is rarely acknowledged by those who make dim-witted, two-dimensional comparisons between the situation in NZ and just about any other western nation in the world.

I’m not aware of any western nation that particularly tried the approach. Europe insisted Schengen borders remain open. Our Government decided flattening the curve was the best approach not going for zero covid. I suspect when we crunch the numbers that will be reflected on as a mistake.

On the matter of Boris, I simply point out (not for the first time) that despite relatively minor differences in policy, the present situation in England and Scotland is not very different.

On schools the situation is different and I suspect from about 2pm today will differ further. Boris only yesterday insisted they were safe. While you describe this as “minor differences in policy” a policy option that could reduce R by 0.7 delayed by days/weeks or ignored altogether has significant impacts on hospitalisations and deaths.

If Boris, having seen the same advice, is going on TV saying the opposite and at the same time procrastinating for some Times hack to tweet out at 10pm next Sunday that they close from Monday then the question is why it took so long. The Sage advice followed from a meeting that took place on 17 December with the public version of the minutes published on 31 December. Ministers will have obviously seen it before that.

[Pierre]

Dropped the kids off at school this morning, happy days.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Dropped the kids off at school this morning, happy days.

That’s good, gives you a few extra days to prepare.

[tweetiepooh]

As as been mentioned many times New Zealand is a 1st world country (good healthcare, level of living) with a smallish population and is in the middle of nowhere.

So it could successfully lockdown for a short period, eliminate local infections and close off new entries. Most of the rest of the world has higher population densities and land borders or close marine borders that are breached.

We would have to arrange something with Eire to combined close our borders, sink incoming illegal boats or just tow them back to the mainland, somehow let food in without infections also getting in and so on. It would likely need to be longer than NZ had to get rid of local infections and we would have to stop rich city dwellers moving out to second homes and other movements within the country. It's not that it couldn't be done but it would be far harder and longer and may not be successful if once we stop it we reopen borders again.

[1andrew1]

UK economy set to be one of the last to recover from pandemic

Annual FT survey of leading economists warns of ‘groaning twenties’, with soaring unemployment and a return to austerity likely

It will take at least 18 months for the UK economy to return to its pre-pandemic size and its recovery will lag behind that of its peers, according to a poll of more than 90 leading economists.

The vast majority of those responding to the FT’s annual survey said UK GDP would not regain its previous level until the second half of 2022, or later. Many said political mismanagement of both the Covid-19 crisis and of Brexit had ensured the UK would underperform other richer countries — and that the biggest risk to the economy in 2021 was that an over-thrifty chancellor would damage the recovery by tightening fiscal policy too early.

Britain has a bigger hill to climb than others because its economy suffered more in the early stages of the pandemic — a fact that Diane Coyle, professor at Cambridge university, ascribed partly to “indecisive or inadequate policy responses”, while Vicky Pryce, at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, blamed “the lateness of the lockdown measures and an appalling communications strategy”.

Swati Dhingra, associate professor at the London School of Economics, predicted “an initial optimistic uptick from a Brexit deal and then a longer period over which reduced market access starts to come into play”...

“The Covid-19 vaccine(s) will prove a shot in the arm for both the UK economy and its peers. But Brexit will be a shot in the foot,” said John Philpott, an independent consultant.

https://www.ft.com/content/5c51299a-...6-a42a6317c324

[jfman]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

As as been mentioned many times New Zealand is a 1st world country (good healthcare, level of living) with a smallish population and is in the middle of nowhere.

So it could successfully lockdown for a short period, eliminate local infections and close off new entries. Most of the rest of the world has higher population densities and land borders or close marine borders that are breached.

We would have to arrange something with Eire to combined close our borders, sink incoming illegal boats or just tow them back to the mainland, somehow let food in without infections also getting in and so on. It would likely need to be longer than NZ had to get rid of local infections and we would have to stop rich city dwellers moving out to second homes and other movements within the country. It's not that it couldn't be done but it would be far harder and longer and may not be successful if once we stop it we reopen borders again.

Is there any evidence, anywhere, that folk crossing the Channel in dinghies contributed to bringing Covid-19 to the UK?

New Zealand have similar challenges importing goods and somehow manage it. The challenge is not insurmountable however we made the political choice to not drive down numbers and decide there was a tolerable level of infections we believed we could maintain and not overwhelm the NHS. Since then it's been antibody testing, rapid testing, operation moonshot and any other "wing and a prayer" options that were anything but the obvious.

Ireland presents a seperate problem yes, but that's a different island from Great Britain and in fact they aren't our problem - we are theirs. Unless we stopped traffic to/from Northern Ireland the land border means they can't pursue an option of elimination via lockdown.

It's a moot point as we are so close to vaccine however the success stories in terms of health and economic recovery will be the ones who pursued elimination. Not herd immunity by stealth - which lets be honest opening schools at all costs is. Let the kids infect their parents and hope it doesn't reach the grandparents.

[denphone]

Scotland to go in full lockdown from midnight.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/04/scotl...ight-13844739/

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

On the matter of Boris, I simply point out (not for the first time) that despite relatively minor differences in policy, the present situation in England and Scotland is not very different.

A day is a long time during the Pandemic.

Originally Posted by denphone

Scotland to go in full lockdown from midnight.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/04/scotl...ight-13844739/

From the First Minister's statement "We estimate that we are 4 weeks behind the position in London and the South of England." Piles the pressure on BoJo.



Czechia, Israel, UK and USA heading up new cases globally. Rest of world seems to have stabilised or shows far slower growth rate. .https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...074432/photo/1

[1andrew1]

Could this be to announce a national lockdown, which Sir Keir Starmer requested yesterday?

Sky News: Boris Johnson to announce tougher coronavirus restrictions in address at 8pm tonight

A Number 10 spokesman said: "The spread of the new variant of COVID-19 has led to rapidly escalating case numbers across the country.

"The prime minister is clear that further steps must now be taken to arrest this rise and to protect the NHS and save lives.

"He will set those out this evening."

Parliament will be recalled today to sit on Wednesday.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...eaths-12178867

[jfman]

Wonder whether he directly contradicts what he said yesterday?

Those Civil Servants eh, whit are they like? Stitching him up every time.