Coronavirus

[nffc]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m not going to extensively engage in your misinformation exercise, I’ll leave that to Hugh, however we absolutely know that without some kind of intervention cases will continue to rise.

Many have gone before you denying the inevitable rise of the virus and been proven incorrect time and again.

As I say restrictions are inevitable - Javid acknowledges this reading between the lines - the only question is where and when. The most effective time is absolutely now.

The economic impact is a red herring. When even a small proportion of people - the clinically vulnerable, their families spend less up to large proportions - those who can work from home continue to do so all winter against a backdrop of rising cases many businesses will be adversely affected in any case. They will just do so without Government support.

Hospitalisations rising isn’t speculation. It’s inevitable without intervention.

But none of this is true based on the current data. It may be more revealing when the ONS publish this week's report tomorrow, but this trend is pretty clear, and given that the trend is well below 2% in any of the more at risk groups, then it is not yet inevitable that the cases will end in increased hospitalisations. Though if we do get some more significant spill over in the older age groups, who are better protected with vaccination, then yes this will happen, and yes, restrictions will then presumably be inevitable.


It's half term in some places here, and next week in some more, some places even have 2 weeks here. That will probably do a fair amount to halt the spread in this group, More so if a lot of the cases are in the SW, for reasons detailed earlier.


It will probably be better to target restrictions at this hotspot if it doesn't - returning to school bubbles, remote teaching, after school clubs scaled back, distancing and masks with secondary kids, accelerated vax take up, local restrictions in Bristol etc, rather than a national approach, but then we did see last year that local lockdowns weren't wholly effective.


The point about people staying away from things naturally is valid and that's a decision they will naturally have to take based on their own personal circumstances and responsibility, but, the point of closing restaurants etc, surely removes that discretion for people who aren't at risk, and let's be fair in the case of something like nightclubs, that's a sector which is predominantly visited by the younger age groups, pretty much under 30s, who are neither massively at risk from hospitalisation or death nor likely to exercise caution, which isn't overall a bad thing, you're not likely to get older people or people with health conditions in there, and presumably if you do, they are aware it's a virus risk. Though the subsequent risk of spill over infections still needs to be considered.


It strikes me more that Javid was saying to the hesitant, look, it's still there, if you don't get your jabs, we may need to restrict, which seemed to be a reinforcement of plan A predominantly, to make it work better, but saying, look if you don't we will have to move in the other direction, to be honest WFH is probably the most useful measure they would be able to implement. That guidance really should have continued to be reinforced until we're through the winter.

[Blackshep]

I only wear a mask to go to the doctor's and only because they won't let you in if you don't wear one complete rubbish. I'm not vaccinated nor do I intend too after looking at the information and seeing the steady appearance of new variants which aren't impacted by the vaccine. I dislike strongly the coercive element there is with vaccination and the idea of the vaccine passports is disgusting and is not something I'd have expected in a non communist country. But each to their own do whatever makes you feel safer or better just don't insist on it applying to everyone.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The Javid briefing was a load of waffle, wasn't it? He didn't say "yes", he didn't say "no", he didn't say "stop" he didn't say "go". What a waste of time. All blather.

The message is ‘steady as she goes’. Nothing changes at this time. I thought that was pretty clear, Seph.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nffc

But none of this is true based on the current data.

“Based on the current data” is a selective way to plead ignorance about the ongoing trend and the likelihood of the trend continuing in the absence of any intervention.

It will probably be better to target restrictions at this hotspot if it doesn't - returning to school bubbles, remote teaching, after school clubs scaled back, distancing and masks with secondary kids, accelerated vax take up, local restrictions in Bristol etc, rather than a national approach, but then we did see last year that local lockdowns weren't wholly effective.

It’s certainly better to target restrictions than not, however failure to implement any only leaves the sledgehammer approach of national, extended restrictions, restrictions on trade, gatherings, etc. Which is entirely undesirable but inevitable if rises go unchecked against a backdrop of waning immunity, slow booster rollout, slow teenage rollout, etc.

Though the subsequent risk of spill over infections still needs to be considered.

Which is why it has little to do with personal responsibility at all - for the many people who through employment or otherwise have no alternative but to share enclosed public spaces with covidiots.

---------- Post added at 22:57 ---------- Previous post was at 22:56 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The message is ‘steady as she goes’. Nothing changes at this time. I thought that was pretty clear, Seph.

People hear what we want to hear. The warning klaxons are ringing, OB. I hope you’ve not paid the deposit for the CF Christmas Party.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by nffc

But none of this is true based on the current data.

Fatal mistake of expecting the person you are exchanging with to have any regard for objective data or the truth.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Fatal mistake of expecting the person you are exchanging with to have any regard for objective data or the truth.

Pierre who still relies on the delay in death registrations to “prove” less people died yesterday than the day before.

I’ve even better news Pierre. The stats don’t show that anybody died of Covid today.

It must be disappointing to stare at the inevitability of restrictions, even if personally unaffected. You’d think you’d learn.

[Blackshep]

I love how everything that happens today has to spawn divisive titles such as "covidiot" and who does that apply to ? People like me that won't routinely wear a silly fabric mask that has zero chance of stopping a .14 micron virus or the people that do. Perhaps it applies to those who haven't had a vaccine that doesn't fully protect you or prevent you passing covid on to others or to those that have had it and are going to need constant updates for how long.

There is no right or wrong here and the infighting and further division of society with big tech companies deciding what information we can and can't have is alarming given those same companies don't pay their share of taxation but we're happy to let them censor us.

Originally Posted by Blackshep

There is no right or wrong here ..

Unless you are a certain member here.
They are are always right, and everyone else is always wrong.
The government is of course always wrong, even when they are right.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

Unless you are a certain member here.
They are are always right, and everyone else is always wrong.
The government is of course always wrong, even when they are right.

I supported the furlough scheme, so I’m happy to point out where they do well. It just happens so sporadically it might appear like never. Even backbench MPs are publishing reports about chronic incompetence and groupthink in the Covid response and it’s the same people leading (bar Hancock) and the same scientists advising (SAGE, JCVI).

On the other hand other members are happy to forgive their incompetence and personal indiscretions as irrelevant. Something I doubt they’d feel if we had a Labour Government led by Starmer, Corbyn or Milliband.

We won’t get out of this, in health or economic terms, by burying our heads in the sand. If Javid had nothing to say today it’d have been buried on BBC Parliament. He’s laying the groundwork to blame the public for not heeding the warnings and low vaccination rates for Plan B.

[Blackshep]

We have had contradictory advice from the get go the science has changed like the season's it's no surprise everything and everyone is struggling to do the right thing when the right thing this month might not be next month. This obsession with misinformation is not helping either because as with everything else covid related it's a very fluid definition that constantly changes and we're seeing doctor's and scientist's cancelled out because they don't agree with this month's accepted narrative it's ridiculous so is it any wonder governments and people are unsure what to do.

Originally Posted by Blackshep

I love how everything that happens today has to spawn divisive titles such as "covidiot" and who does that apply to ? People like me that won't routinely wear a silly fabric mask that has zero chance of stopping a .14 micron virus or the people that do. Perhaps it applies to those who haven't had a vaccine that doesn't fully protect you or prevent you passing covid on to others or to those that have had it and are going to need constant updates for how long.

There is no right or wrong here and the infighting and further division of society with big tech companies deciding what information we can and can't have is alarming given those same companies don't pay their share of taxation but we're happy to let them censor us.

The virus is spread in aerosol droplets, which are much larger - they don’t exist in isolation when breathed out.

But I’m sure you knew that…

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Blackshep

I love how everything that happens today has to spawn divisive titles such as "covidiot" and who does that apply to ? People like me that won't routinely wear a silly fabric mask that has zero chance of stopping a .14 micron virus or the people that do. Perhaps it applies to those who haven't had a vaccine that doesn't fully protect you or prevent you passing covid on to others or to those that have had it and are going to need constant updates for how long.

There is no right or wrong here and the infighting and further division of society with big tech companies deciding what information we can and can't have is alarming given those same companies don't pay their share of taxation but we're happy to let them censor us.

When it comes to vaccinations, the medical consensus is a definite yes. No vaccine is 100% effective but what we have is far better than nothing and has enabled us to step out of lockdown. I think what we can all agree on is that no one wants to head back there.

Originally Posted by Blackshep

We have had contradictory advice from the get go the science has changed like the season's it's no surprise everything and everyone is struggling to do the right thing when the right thing this month might not be next month. This obsession with misinformation is not helping either because as with everything else covid related it's a very fluid definition that constantly changes and we're seeing doctor's and scientist's cancelled out because they don't agree with this month's accepted narrative it's ridiculous so is it any wonder governments and people are unsure what to do.

Something I posted earlier today…

It's almost as if a highly infectious novel virus had happened, and people were having to work on the knowledge they had at the time, and review/change things when they discovered more...

[Blackshep]

Yes the droplets can be bigger but the virus is able to travel short distances independent of the droplet (as I'm sure your aware) and at .14 micron those fabric masks are worthless if you want an effective mask lobby the government for full face cbrn rated masks then I'lltake it seriously. It isn't a vaccine by any measure that applied before covid 19 it doesn't prevent infection, it doesn't prevent death from the virus, it doesn't prevent you passing the virus on and it's effect is lessened by time and is worthless against emerging variants.

This "vaccine" is an unproved rushed experimental drug for which we have zero real data on it's medium to long term effects because so many stages in the usual research and development of medications were swept aside to get it out the door but it's ok they did some computer modelling. There is no real ground for anyone to be smug and self satisfied with their position everyone needs to do their own research and make a decision based on what they feel is best for them. As I said the coercive element in all of this should have more people questioning then there is.

[jfman]

I realise now that, in the past, I might have been unkind to some long standing members by calling them covid-deniers or accusing them of spreading misinformation.

Wow.