Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Getting very worrying now: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...-close-indeed/

YouGov 53% No, 47% Yes. Undecided voters splitting to Yes by a margin of 2 - 1.

Bookies are still showing Yes at 2/9, No at 3/1

Originally Posted by Hugh

Bookies are still showing Yes at 2/9, No at 3/1

For now. YouGov is the most friendly pollster to No so far and the gap has collapsed from 18 to 6. I imagine the odds may come in a bit soon....

---------- Post added at 22:06 ---------- Previous post was at 21:41 ----------

Unless this poll is some sort of mistake then this should set off alarms. If it gets too close then we're in for a nervy night come September 18th. We need to wake up to the fact that the Union is in real danger and react to that. If needs be the parties need a concrete plan to offer further devolution.

[Derek]

Worrying, especially since the 2011 Holyrood result but only a couple of weeks to get over the line and hopefully common sense will win over fantasy, petty dislike and the outright lies peddled by The guessers.

[MalteseFalcon]

Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union? Nothing apart from a Chancellor who screwed us before becoming PM and another Chancellor who had no answer to the crisis when it started.

If it was down to me, I would break up the whole UK. Each country has their own parliament so let them decide their own taxes, own benefits system and health service. I hope that come September 19th I can be happy with the result of the referendum.

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union?

A surplus in GDP at the moment. More population. More workers. Many famous inventors, scientists, artists and so on.

Besides they're British and it would be sad to lose them.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

Common sense? Realistically what do Scotland bring to the Union?

Aside from the first BRITISH winner of Wimbledon in umpteen years they bring a whole host of other benefits that you get from a union of several hundred years. If you think hiding away in a dark corner with no outside connections is the way to go then knock yourself out.

Originally Posted by MarkC1984

If it was down to me, I would break up the whole UK.

Thankfully it's not.

The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Damien

The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*

Still have NO as likely winners but it show no complacency can be shown. The guessers will say and do literally anything to sneak a yes vote and deal with the aftermath later.

The no campaign has been virtually silent since the last debate and better get some counters out to some of the more blatant lies that have been swirling recently.

Originally Posted by Damien

The odds have fallen now for a Yes win. *gulp*

Well yes, they would have to, based on the polls.

Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.

Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.

It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.

Originally Posted by Chris

Can we get a sense of perspective here - Yougov has come into line with a Survation poll that was also published within the last week. If there had been a dramatic swing to Yes, then we would have expected to see it in Survation as well, and most likely, given the historic differences between the two, Survation would have shown Yes in the lead.

Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.

Clearly Yes has made up some ground, but can it really be so sudden and so dramatic as Yougov now suggests? There is some evidence that Yougov altered its weighting for its poll published on 15 August, by reducing the significance in its sample of voters who were born outside Scotland. This has reduced the showing for No.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, but I think there is more than a whiff of Yougov quietly shifting its own goalposts so that come polling day its predictions are not shown to be wide of the mark.

It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.

It's more likely that Survation has had a better handle on things from the outset. Their results have long shown the two sides to be closer together, with a 6 point gap (excluding d/k) since the beginning of June, changed only briefly in the immediate aftermath of the first TV debate.

I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.

The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...

[Derek]

More bad news for Better Together.

Previous PM and saviour of the universe Gordon Brown is campaigning for a no vote. Given his track record a Yes is almost a done deal.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-...itics-29023267

He has been campaigning for a while. He tried to usurp Darling at one point but he keeps putting his foot in it.

Originally Posted by Damien

Maybe although the last Survation poll also showed a 4 point gain for Yes. This could simply be that and the movement has stopped or Salmond's NHS tactic is working and the Currency Union impact has already happened.



It did last time but this shows a 4 point gain since then with no apparent methodology change.



I hope you're right. I am starting to get concerned. Even if this does turn out to be the case it's a awful margin to win by and if it does get closer then turnout/motivation etc can be what decides it.

The YouGov polls has Yes leading in every demographic apart from the over-60s. Thankfully they vote en-masse but it's a worrying trend. Better Together need to get their act...together...

Survation showed Yes and No both making ground at the expense of d/k. Yougov has shown tightening since its last poll, but the really dramatic change is in comparison to the last-but-one, which is why all this morning's commentary is focusing on that. The thing is, last-but-one is when Yougov began down-weighting the voting intentions of people like me, who were born outside Scotland.

I'm really not trying to make it sound like Yes hasn't made progress. Clearly it has. But I do think that Yougov has produced an outlier here. If there was a sizeable, measurable shift to Yes from No, as opposed to Yes from d/k, then Survation would have shown that too, but it didn't.

[Jimmy-J]

Stop quivering, it'll definitely be a "NO" win.