Will Scotland Leave the UK? - Page 121

**Hugh** · 17-08-2014, 12:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem

Freudian slip I reckon...

Caught out...

I just wanted another passport....

Osem · 17-08-2014, 12:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

Caught out...

I just wanted another passport....

Apparently Salmond wants to keep the UK passport as well as Sterling.

bubblegun · 17-08-2014, 12:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

Scotland will not vote to split from England. Poll after poll after poll has shown that the settled will of the Scottish people is to remain in political union. Alex Salmond has a very good reason for delaying his referendum until 2014 - delaying it as long as possible is the only means he has of delivering the SNP's long-term pledge of a referendum whilst desperately hoping that something, anything, will transpire to turn public opinion around. He will also hope to complete a full five-year term in office having not spent four years of it being accused of having no legitimacy, the likely consequence of a referendum having been held and lost some time last year. Furthermore he will want to carve out a reputation for the SNP as a viable, alternative centre-left Government for Scotland so, having lost a referendum on independence in 2014 he can still go to the country in 2015 and ask for a third term as First Minister.

The electoral rules that return MSPs to Holyrood were designed to prevent the SNP from ever getting an outright majority. To an extent this suited Salmond perfectly as he is a pragmatist and a gradualist when it comes to achieving a split from the Union. He knows that the time is not now, and being able to blame a Parliament he did not control for denying him a referendum bill was very convenient. Only in the last stages of the 2010 election campaign, when an outright win for the SNP began to look possible, did the SNP start rolling back it's referendum commitment as far as it possibly could (that being a delay, not a cancellation).

It is not properly appreciated south of the Border that the SNP won the election despite their separatist agenda, not because of it. They are the only effective opposition to Labour in Scotland and the overwhelming desire on the part of Scottish voters in 2010 was to get Labour out of power in Holyrood.

---------- Post added at 13:57 ---------- Previous post was at 13:53 ----------

Useful analysis in this morning's Torygraph by Labour's Douglas Alexander:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...sh-people.html

I know this is an old post, but a Yes for Independence is NOT a vote for the SNP. I wouldn't imagine they would win in an independent Scotland . An "old-Labour" type party would be in government given the historic voting results.

Stephen · 17-08-2014, 13:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by bubblegun

I know this is an old post, but a Yes for Independence is NOT a vote for the SNP. I wouldn't imagine they would win in an independent Scotland . An "old-Labour" type party would be in government given the historic voting results.

But it IS a vote for the SNP.

Without them there wouldn't be a bloody referendum.

**Damien** · 17-08-2014, 15:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

The Undecideds are starting to decide and the polls, which have always had trouble working out how to weight for these, are all over the place.

As Derek pointed out, of the remaining undecideds, they are 2:1 in favour of No, which is what you would expect, No being Status Quo, which typically picks up in the last days of a constitutional campaign. The "excluding don't knows" headline figure effectively attributes the undecided votes 50:50 to each side, so in this case that 55:45 result is very flattering to Yes.

I still think we are heading for a No victory by 60:40 or better.

Still better not get complacent. It's not over until the fat man concedes.

Mr Pharmacist · 17-08-2014, 15:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

Ooops!

fixed now - thanks.

If you'd posted that on Twitter the yes voters would have re-tweeted it a few thousand times by now, claiming victory already....

Osem · 17-08-2014, 18:17

I have a feeling there'll be little magnanimity displayed by Bravemouth if he doesn't get his way. It'll be yet another episode of his favourite soap - "Brave Scots beaten down by the evil English"...

**Damien** · 18-08-2014, 08:37

YouGov has Yes up 4 points as well.

Derek · 18-08-2014, 09:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

YouGov has Yes up 4 points as well.

What poll is that?

**Damien** · 18-08-2014, 09:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek

What poll is that?

The Times/YouGov

Derek · 18-08-2014, 10:05

Hmmm, still a large enough lead but the biggest enemy is complacency. A few narrow polls might just be best to ensure every NO voter gets out and doesn't assume the yes camp has folded.

TheDaddy · 18-08-2014, 15:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek

Hmmm, still a large enough lead but the biggest enemy is complacency. A few narrow polls might just be best to ensure every NO voter gets out and doesn't assume the yes camp has folded.

Scaremonger, it's in the bag, my advice to every no voter is don't bother, put your feet up, have a cup of tea or a wee dram and wait for the results to come in

**Hugh** · 18-08-2014, 16:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Scaremonger, it's in the bag, my advice to every no voter is don't bother, put your feet up, have a cup of tea or a wee dram and wait for the results to come in

Thank you, Alex....

TheDaddy · 18-08-2014, 16:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

Still better not get complacent. It's not over until the fat man concedes.

Bully. I feel bad about the amount of abuse Alex takes, the man is a political force of nature, especially if you count drizzle as a force of nature.

Derek · 20-08-2014, 08:28

Booo, those nasty English don't want to share the pound with Alex. They also don't want Scotland to leave but that's not what the guessers will highlight.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...the-pound.html

Quote:

The Future of England Survey 2014, which was conducted on behalf of the Economic and Social Research Council by YouGov in late April, found 59 per cent opposition to Scottish independence compared to 19 per cent support.

Mr Salmond has claimed a Eurozone-style currency union with a separate Scotland would also be in the best interests of the remainder of the UK, but 53 per cent of English people rejected Scots continuing to use sterling.

Again, opposition to a deal on the pound was much stronger among Tory (69 per cent) and Ukip (64 per cent) voters than Labour (46 per cent) or Lib Dem (49 per cent) supporters.