UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Agreed. At the end of the day, we need a close trade deal with the EU. If BoJo's government won't make it then Sunak's or Sir Keir's will. The forces of geoeconomics can't be overcome by empty slogans.

We would like a reasonable trade deal with the EU, not one on their unreasonable terms. The Canadian model will do.

But the Guvmin has calculated that we don't need a trade deal with the EU. Essentially, it's the Guvmin's judgement on "need" that you are challenging.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

We would like a reasonable trade deal with the EU, not one on their unreasonable terms. The Canadian model will do.

But the Guvmin has calculated that we don't need a trade deal with the EU. Essentially, it's the Guvmin's judgement on "need" that you are challenging.

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Anyway, I was marking Hugh who specialises in sarcasm without contributing much to the debate itself.

"Old Boy and I have correctly analysed..." is what I meant by self-marking.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

---------- Post added at 22:11 ---------- Previous post was at 22:06 ----------


"Old Boy and I have correctly analysed..." is what I meant by self-marking.

Yes - I know. The other point I made needed emphasising.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

This is what's wrong with you and your argument.

You are effectively saying that Boris should concede that EU law can apply to the UK. Ignoring NI for the moment (special case), you must be insane to grant such power to a third country, union or whatever you want to call the EU.

Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.

Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room.

I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

This is what's wrong with you and your argument.

You are effectively saying that Boris should concede that EU law can apply to the UK. Ignoring NI for the moment (special case), you must be insane to grant such power to a third country, union or whatever you want to call the EU.

I'm saying here that the space for a deal is on agreeing to a level playing field. This is my optimistic scenario as we can't fight geoeconomics so will have to do something similar anyway at some stage so why worsen our suffering economy? The pessimistic scenario is as outlined by Damien with Boris too afraid to take on the hardine Brexiters in his party.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Yeah ... I think anyone who thinks the level playing field will be conceded to any significant degree really hasn’t been paying attention. Dynamic Alignment, which is what the EU would like the LPF to mean, amounts to EU directive by fax; single market rules made in Brussels, sent to London to be automatically applied to our statute book as the price of our access to their single market. This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, we take rules, without having influenced their drafting; second, they apply to domestic trade, not just to stuff exported to the EU (as is the case now); third they dent our ability to negotiate independently with third parties for mutual access to our markets; fourth, the EU has form for defining very broadly what single market regulation looks like. It’s a recipe for continued EU mission creep right across our statute book.

Dynamic alignment neutralises many of the main advantages of us leaving the EU, while scoring the EU the major win of imposing rules on us that could never have been drafted in the same way had we been in the room.

I have no problem with the EU being as bureaucratic, centralising and absurd as it likes with its own rules in its own market place. I do have a problem with us continuing to suffer for it.

Absolutely get the issues although only Pritti Patel's calculator would calculate a 5%-10% uplift in GDP as suffering for it.

I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here.
How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU.

It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part.

He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Absolutely get the issues although only Pritti Patel's calculator would calculate a 5%-10% uplift in GDP as suffering for it.

I don't think it's impossible for BoJo to agree to a deal along the level-playing-field lines at the last minute. He stitched up the DUP over the border in the Irish Sea so he had form here.
How well he would honour such an agreement is open to question but he would probably enjoy stirring up the benchbenchers in the event of later confrontations with the EU.

It's the subsequent political impact of no deal outside the Conservative Party that would encourage a climbdown on BoJo's part.

He knows the chaos and negative economic impact especially in the Red Wall seats and the country is poorly prepared for such an eventuality according to the logistics and transport sector. It would hand Sturgeon a cherished majority and a successful vote for independence. Sir Keir would grill a confused BoJo every Wednesday before wearied, BoJo would hand the keys for No 10 to Sunak who would send a chastened Frost back to Brussels to sort out a deal aligning us more closely to the EU. From a position of weakness and even smaller population given Scotland's likely independence in the event of no deal.

No point using anyone using a calculator when simple guesswork is involved.

Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises

Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled.

Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

I said it before that the nature of how politics is in this country and with what was promised means the U.K Government isn't in a position to make concessions. It was true a year ago and it's in true today. Everything has been ramped up to such a level than any concession towards the EU would be portrayed as a betrayal.

Boris Johnson and the Government have tried for an EU deal entirely on our terms and it isn't working.

People will cheer this round but the same problem with crop up with any other trade deal.

Other trade deals will not carry an expectation that we sign up to the laws of their countries and give up our territorial waters!

Several trade deals are nearing completion, including Australia and Japan. No such problems with them.

---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The calculation is not about the need of the country. It's about what will keep BoJo in power a bit longer.
Damien's post explains the situation rationally and quite clearly.

Wrong again. It's about honouring the result of the EU referendum and carrying out the clear mandate of the government.

---------- Post added at 09:04 ---------- Previous post was at 09:02 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

To add - I hope that this analysis is wrong. I hope BoJo does what he did before, namely concede at the last minute. He can concede on a level playing field and be seen to win on fishing, thus allowing the Express to declare victory. Farage will continue to moan, naturally, but he has carved a niche career out of doing so.

A level playing field equates to taking EU laws, it seems. That ain't going to happen.

---------- Post added at 09:10 ---------- Previous post was at 09:04 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm saying here that the space for a deal is on agreeing to a level playing field. This is my optimistic scenario as we can't fight geoeconomics so will have to do something similar anyway at some stage so why worsen our suffering economy? The pessimistic scenario is as outlined by Damien with Boris too afraid to take on the hardine Brexiters in his party.

But it's not a basis for a deal! This puts us in a worse place than being part of the EU!! Why can you not see that?

We will not be a slave to the EU, and if that's what you believe, you are sadly mistaken. The British people will not stand for that.

You are, it seems, obsessed with geoeconomics, which is not as relevant as it used to be. The EU is convenient as it is close, but it is not the be all and end all.

Sorry, Andrew, but your scenario is not optimistic at all - it is defeatist.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

No point using anyone using a calculator when simple guesswork is involved.

Boris conceding to the EU will cause more grief than you can imagine . . Farage is waiting in the wings to lead his army once again if the need arises

Keir is all talk with no substance, and Sunak is too clever to get himself the keys to No 10 until after the dust has settled.

Scotlands likely independence has the same chance as trains running on time.

The trains are currently running on time, but no one's on them. I can't see much changing to alter Scots' views on independence.
A fair summary for BoJo is he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. But in Sunak'a case, you cannot chose when you inherit
Sir Keir is not in power but is a substantive opposition leader with an enviable track record of fighting criminals and terrorists. Thereby making him a hard character to criticise if you position yourself as a party of law and order.

Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Damien

Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

If your lawyer is working for the other side,it's best to get rid.


None paywall version https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-over-22647171

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Head Goverment Lawyer has resigned over the 'rowing back' of the NI agreement: https://www.ft.com/content/6186bf1c-...3-4eea763e1b94

Wow! That's a damning inditement of the current government isn't it?

A non-paywall link would be nice.