Updated: Boris resigns as party leader

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

Your not understanding how something works does not equate to proof that something doesn’t work.

Polling relies on a form of applied mathematics called statistics. Its potential as well as its limitations are well understood, and accessible introductions to the science are readily available.

Despite that, they are often wrong, aren’t they? Still, if that’s what you want to rely on to form your judgements, good luck with that.

Do you remember the surprise of the BBC when it started to dawn on them that the public had voted for Brexit? Priceless!

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Despite that, they are often wrong, aren’t they? Still, if that’s what you want to rely on to form your judgements, good luck with that.

Do you remember the surprise of the BBC when it started to dawn on them that the public had voted for Brexit? Priceless!

If you’re looking for precision, then they will always be wrong. There’s a margin of error, usually of +/-3 points in a properly weighted poll with decent data tracking historic trends. No polling expert worth the title will claim more than they can deliver in this regard. It’s usually the tabloid newspapers that commission the polls that selectively report the results to suit their agenda.

In the case of the Brexit referendum, the result was within the margin of error so essentially unpredictable. This was compounded by a lack of historic voting patterns to calibrate against, because unlike a general election, a Brexit referendum doesn’t occur once every 5 years. I suspect the BBC’s presumption, early on voting night, that remain would win, was grounded in a good deal of wishful thinking.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

Not true. There are many ways to get computers to generate truly random numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premium_Bond#ERNIE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardwa...mber_generator

Even the old Pace STBs had a random number generator based on sampling noise off the cable.

A computer will ( certainly earlier ones, I have to admit I’m not sure about AI) only do what is told and within those parameters. As I say, AI I’m sure will may change that, but prior to this a computer can only do what it is told.

From your Ernie link.

A pseudorandom sequence of numbers is one that appears to be statistically random, despite having been produced by a completely deterministic and repeatable process.

In regards to your second link, I was referencing “lotto”, but even in regards to those more powerful systems that page littered with caveats,

in theory”,

,

assumed not to be predictable,

etc

And whilst I accept there may be machines out there capable of near, or perhaps even true (doubtful) randomness ……..I doubt the lottery are using them for your lucky dip.

Originally Posted by Pierre

A computer will ( certainly earlier ones, I have to admit I’m not sure about AI) only do what is told and within those parameters. As I say, AI I’m sure will may change that, but prior to this a computer can only do what it is told.

From your Ernie link.

You can use things like the coordinates on-screen of the mouse movements to generate a seed. That'll be random because it's not deterministic.

Well random enough for 99.999999% of cases. I can't think of many applications where you would need to go further than ensuring the seed is properly random.

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

Patel not even on the list? Problem is I don’t rate any of them.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Patel not even on the list? Problem is I don’t rate any of them.

Your fellow scouser, Nadine Dorries, is not on the list either.

Confess I'm not too familiar with Tom Tugendhat or Penny Mordaunt so suspect they've kept a clean slate.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

What are the odds for Boris? Is that a sore point or a result that will confound the pollsters?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What are the odds for Boris?

Ummmmmm, Boris is already the leader.
How can he have odds to be the next leader ?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

Truss is a car crash waiting to happen, Ben Wallace might be a good choice

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul

Ummmmmm, Boris is already the leader.
How can he have odds to be the next leader ?

Indeed.

[papa smurf]

I imagine Keith will get the order of Lenin if Boris is replaced.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Truss is a car crash waiting to happen, Ben Wallace might be a good choice

Wallace has had a good war but it's hard to tell much else about how he would perform as PM. I don't know why the Tory Membership is so keen on Truss, I said before I think they overestimate how much culture war issues help in the UK.

Originally Posted by Damien

Wallace has had a good war but it's hard to tell much else about how he would perform as PM. I don't know why the Tory Membership is so keen on Truss, I said before I think they overestimate how much culture war issues help in the UK.

I think a great many of the Tory grassroots are still dreaming of Thatcher 2.0 and a hard-talking female, senior MP inevitably draws hopeful comparisons. Personally I find it hard to get past that cheese disgrace speech.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Paul

Ummmmmm, Boris is already the leader.
How can he have odds to be the next leader ?

I wasn't criticising the list, I was simply pondering what the odds would be if Boris was standing for PM now.

---------- Post added at 09:11 ---------- Previous post was at 09:09 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

I think a great many of the Tory grassroots are still dreaming of Thatcher 2.0 and a hard-talking female, senior MP inevitably draws hopeful comparisons. Personally I find it hard to get past that cheese disgrace speech.

You are correct on all counts. She seems to be doing well at the moment, but I don't really rate her.

That cheese speech was definitely cringeworthy.