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UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal
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Old 17-10-2019, 20:51   #1381
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

I can’t understand what Corbyn is playing at. His party members might be remainy but his voters aren’t. He can’t hide from the electorate forever, and the mood music coming out of Brussels is that there will be no extension beyond 31 October regardless of what the Commons does. How will he resist demands for an election if we leave with no deal? How will he persuade anyone to vote for him in such circumstances? Surely he has now to stop playing politics and at the very least whip his MPs to abstain. Alternatively, a free vote.
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Old 17-10-2019, 21:12   #1382
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
I can’t understand what Corbyn is playing at. His party members might be remainy but his voters aren’t. He can’t hide from the electorate forever, and the mood music coming out of Brussels is that there will be no extension beyond 31 October regardless of what the Commons does. How will he resist demands for an election if we leave with no deal? How will he persuade anyone to vote for him in such circumstances? Surely he has now to stop playing politics and at the very least whip his MPs to abstain. Alternatively, a free vote.
I think he wants to stay in opposition and not be in government,i doubt if he is up to the task anyway.
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Old 17-10-2019, 21:14   #1383
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
I can’t understand what Corbyn is playing at. His party members might be remainy but his voters aren’t. He can’t hide from the electorate forever, and the mood music coming out of Brussels is that there will be no extension beyond 31 October regardless of what the Commons does. How will he resist demands for an election if we leave with no deal? How will he persuade anyone to vote for him in such circumstances? Surely he has now to stop playing politics and at the very least whip his MPs to abstain. Alternatively, a free vote.
This could be all my Christmas’s come at once, Brexit ( well not really but glad to see the ref result honoured) and the demise of that jerk ( American meaning) Corbyn. ( definitely an early Christmas present)
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Old 17-10-2019, 21:14   #1384
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
I can’t understand what Corbyn is playing at. His party members might be remainy but his voters aren’t. He can’t hide from the electorate forever, and the mood music coming out of Brussels is that there will be no extension beyond 31 October regardless of what the Commons does. How will he resist demands for an election if we leave with no deal? How will he persuade anyone to vote for him in such circumstances? Surely he has now to stop playing politics and at the very least whip his MPs to abstain. Alternatively, a free vote.
Why do you think his voters aren't? I don't think that is clear at all. Certainly you could say that the voters in a lot of Labour seats are largely Leave but Labour's voters in those seats are often disproportionately Remain.

See here for an example of this: https://www.britishelectionstudy.com.../#.Xai8zC-ZM61

Quote:
The root of the strategic dilemma is that, on the one hand, a majority of Labour MPs (61%) represent constituencies that had a majority leave vote in 2016, whilst on the other a clear majority of Labour voters (68%) supported Remain in 2016. Interpreting this difference appears to have been extremely important in guiding Labour strategy, dividing opinions among Labour MPs.
Quote:
This represents what social scientists call an ecological fallacy: just because Labour voters disproportionately live in Leave areas doesn’t mean that they are more likely to be Leave voters themselves. Electoral geography does matter, but when it comes to Brexit the impact of Leave versus Remain preferences on party choice is remarkably consistent.
I think the bigger problem for Corbyn is how he is going to square the argument that he only wanted to avoid a No Deal Brexit after he votes against a Brexit Deal. This'll be electoral catnip for the Tories. The Liberal Democrats don't have this problem - they just hate Brexit - but if Brexit passes then their big electoral card might go away.
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Old 17-10-2019, 22:22   #1385
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Why do you think his voters aren't? I don't think that is clear at all. Certainly you could say that the voters in a lot of Labour seats are largely Leave but Labour's voters in those seats are often disproportionately Remain.

See here for an example of this: https://www.britishelectionstudy.com.../#.Xai8zC-ZM61





I think the bigger problem for Corbyn is how he is going to square the argument that he only wanted to avoid a No Deal Brexit after he votes against a Brexit Deal. This'll be electoral catnip for the Tories. The Liberal Democrats don't have this problem - they just hate Brexit - but if Brexit passes then their big electoral card might go away.
We wouldn’t Know until we have an election, but my feeling is Labour would end up only a force within the M25
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Old 17-10-2019, 22:28   #1386
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
We wouldn’t Know until we have an election, but my feeling is Labour would end up only a force within the M25
Surely you mean outside the M25? Within is more Conservative and Liberal Democrat.
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Old 17-10-2019, 22:45   #1387
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
Surely you mean outside the M25? Within is more Conservative and Liberal Democrat.
Really?

Election 2017: The result in maps and charts http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40176349

---------- Post added at 21:45 ---------- Previous post was at 21:33 ----------

Unfortunately, due to population size, within the M25 yields a lot of seats. Held by Working class heroes like Emily Thornbury, Diane Abbott, Kier Starmer, Barry Gardiner, David Lammy, John McDonnell.

Labour is the biggest party in Gtr London, holding 46 seats.
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Old 17-10-2019, 23:14   #1388
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
We wouldn’t Know until we have an election, but my feeling is Labour would end up only a force within the M25
Probably but that'll be because of their equivication on Brexit rather than their resistance on it. They alienated Remainers and Leavers in an attempt to appeal to them both. They wanted a Brexit Deal but voted against it. They want a referendum but don't want to say which side they'll be on yet.

The Tories are being rewarded for their clarity (now). The Liberal Democrats are being awarded for their clarity. Labour keep twisting and turning on the subject and are nowhere.

---------- Post added at 22:14 ---------- Previous post was at 22:04 ----------

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Unfortunately, due to population size, within the M25 yields a lot of seats. Held by Working class heroes like Emily Thornbury, Diane Abbott, Kier Starmer, Barry Gardiner, David Lammy, John McDonnell.

Labour is the biggest party in Gtr London, holding 46 seats.
Yup. Libs are likely the major winners in London. Probably will take Richmond from the Tories. Might take Golders Green and Westminster from Labour and the Tories respectively.
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Old 17-10-2019, 23:23   #1389
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Probably but that'll be because of their equivication on Brexit rather than their resistance on it. They alienated Remainers and Leavers in an attempt to appeal to them both. They wanted a Brexit Deal but voted against it. They want a referendum but don't want to say which side they'll be on yet.
.
They’re trying to dance between Remainer London and Leave everywhere else, but their Remainer big shots Thornbury, Starmer, Corbyn, McDonnell, Gardiner are now too planted in Remain and they think it’s a good idea.

They stand for nothing, they stand for no-one - certainly not the foundations they were built on
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Old 17-10-2019, 23:27   #1390
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
They’re trying to dance between Remainer London and Leave everywhere else, but their Remainer big shots Thornbury, Starmer, Corbyn, McDonnell, Gardiner are now too planted in Remain and they think it’s a good idea.

They stand for nothing, they stand for no-one - certainly not the foundations they were built on
As I linked before though a good deal of their support outside of London is remainer too. Remember a lot of seats were 50-50 Remain/Leave outside of London as well.

But yeah they're trying this dance and are failing. It's just cowardly.
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Old 18-10-2019, 01:07   #1391
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

I hope the deal passes. For the banter.
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Old 18-10-2019, 08:15   #1392
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
Really?

Election 2017: The result in maps and charts http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40176349

---------- Post added at 21:45 ---------- Previous post was at 21:33 ----------

Unfortunately, due to population size, within the M25 yields a lot of seats. Held by Working class heroes like Emily Thornbury, Diane Abbott, Kier Starmer, Barry Gardiner, David Lammy, John McDonnell.

Labour is the biggest party in Gtr London, holding 46 seats.
M25 ring is far bigger than Greater London and contains lots of the home counties. I agree with you on Greater London though.

---------- Post added at 07:15 ---------- Previous post was at 06:53 ----------

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I hope the deal passes. For the banter.
Brexit fatigue can only work in Johnson's favour.
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Old 18-10-2019, 09:15   #1393
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

This is quite interesting:-
https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/stat...141513730?s=20
Quote:
An insider from one of the EU institutions here told me today that after UK made its initial offer here 2 weeks ago, Michel Barnier told him, 'we will have to get them to move to a Northern Ireland only backstop, but convince them that's not what's happening'
No wonder the EU look cheery
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Old 18-10-2019, 09:18   #1394
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

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Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
This is quite interesting:-
https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/stat...141513730?s=20

No wonder the EU look cheery
This is indeed the true surrender deal. Peer into track changes and you will find a "Designed in EU" stamp from two weeks ago.

Last edited by 1andrew1; 18-10-2019 at 09:22.
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Old 18-10-2019, 10:17   #1395
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Re: Brexit Development(s) Discussion

Dominic Raab was hailing the deal this morning on the news as a great deal for Northern Ireland as it will keep 'frictionless access to the single market'. If that's so great, can the rest of the UK have this too?
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