Election 2019, Week 1

[mrmistoffelees]

Farage spouting cack about being able to use Article 24 again....

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Farage spouting cack about being able to use Article 24 again....

Could you give us the benefit of your wisdom and explain what is wrong with this strategy.

2016 Leave voter Westminster voting intention:

CON: 58%
BREX: 24%
LAB: 10%

via
@YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct

2016 Remain voter Westminster voting intention:

LDEM: 34%
LAB: 33%
CON: 16%
GRN: 9%

via
@YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Could you give us the benefit of your wisdom and explain what is wrong with this strategy.

It's already been done to death but to recap,

Gatt 24 applies if you have an agreement, or an agreement near to completion. It doesn't apply if you decide not to have an agreement, or iif you cannot reach an agreement.

---------- Post added at 12:01 ---------- Previous post was at 12:00 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

2016 Leave voter Westminster voting intention:

CON: 58%
BREX: 24%
LAB: 10%

via
@YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct

2016 Remain voter Westminster voting intention:

LDEM: 34%
LAB: 33%
CON: 16%
GRN: 9%

via
@YouGov
, 17 - 28 Oct

Is that dated right? Or, should it be 2019. Or is it there for further/future comparison.


Genuine Q !

[nomadking]

Doesn't GATT 24 also rule out the backstop?

2. For the purposes of this Agreement a customs territory shall be understood to mean any territory with respect to which separate tariffs or other regulations of commerce are maintained for a substantial part of the trade of such territory with other territories.

NI and GB classed as two separate customs territories.


Then there is:-

3. The provisions of this Agreement shall not be construed to prevent:

(a) Advantages accorded by any contracting party to adjacent countries in order to facilitate frontier traffic;

[mrmistoffelees]

Responding to Mr Farage's speech, a Conservative source says: "A vote for Farage risks letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street via the back door - and the country spending 2020 having two referendums on Brexit and Scottish independence.

"It will not get Brexit done - and it will create another gridlocked Parliament that doesn’t work”.

The Conservatives have repeatedly ruled out any kind of pact with the Brexit Party, with government minister Robert Jenrick saying earlier: "We are not interested in doing any pacts with the Brexit Party or indeed with anybody else."

taken from the bbc

Are they worried ? Or, dismissive...

[Carth]

Originally Posted by nomadking

More automation leads to cheaper goods, which leads to more demand.

Can't remember the last time I saw a sign in a shop window saying " Due to advances in our factories, we can make our products twice as fast at 2/3 the price, therefore everything is reduced by 25%"



. . closing down sales have signs offering goods at reduced prices though

[denphone]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Responding to Mr Farage's speech, a Conservative source says: "A vote for Farage risks letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street via the back door - and the country spending 2020 having two referendums on Brexit and Scottish independence.

"It will not get Brexit done - and it will create another gridlocked Parliament that doesn’t work”.

The Conservatives have repeatedly ruled out any kind of pact with the Brexit Party, with government minister Robert Jenrick saying earlier: "We are not interested in doing any pacts with the Brexit Party or indeed with anybody else."

taken from the bbc

Are they worried ? Or, dismissive...

Mr Farage also says.

Farage says Brexit party will contest every seat in Britain if Tories do not agree to pact

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ries-live-news

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Carth

Can't remember the last time I saw a sign in a shop window saying " Due to advances in our factories, we can make our products twice as fast at 2/3 the price, therefore everything is reduced by 25%"



. . closing down sales have signs offering goods at reduced prices though

Are you really saying that books didn't become cheaper and more readily available because of the printing press? Are you really saying that cars didn't become cheaper when Henry Ford introduced the production line?

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by denphone

Mr Farage also says.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ries-live-news

1) Does he have the money ?
2) Does he have the people ?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Are you really saying that books didn't become cheaper and more readily available because of the printing press? Are you really saying that cars didn't become cheaper when Henry Ford introduced the production line?

stop being silly, you'll be telling me next that Primark can sell clothes cheaper than BHS because it's top quality gear made on expensive machinery in Taiwan

[denphone]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

1) Does he have the money ?

They certainly don't have the party finances that the Conservatives and Labour have but they do have some financiers and former Conservative donors supporting them.

---------- Post added at 13:02 ---------- Previous post was at 13:01 ----------

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

2) Does he have the people ?

Personally l don't think they will target every seat but l do see them targeting between 100 to 150 seats.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by denphone

They certainly don't have the party finances that the Conservatives and Labour have but they do have some financiers and former Conservative donors supporting them.

---------- Post added at 13:02 ---------- Previous post was at 13:01 ----------



Personally l don't think they will target every seat but l do see them targeting between 100 to 150 seats.

If that were to be the case then they’ll be targeting strong labour heartlands where historically the tories have no chance. So north east UK. Parts of Sunderland, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough etc.

That’s the leave vote split if that were to be the case. Hung parliament again !!

Originally Posted by Pierre

You sure about that? According to Hugh everybody sailed off into the sunset and didn’t lose a dime.

Didn’t say that - I said the companies (and it was mainly institutions that held the vast majority of shares) would be able to write off those losses against tax.

But you knew that, and decided to mischaracterise my comments.

(FYI, I worked in the Telecomms industry at that time, for Cable Companies and BT Cellnet (as was)).

[denphone]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

If that were to be the case then they’ll be targeting strong labour heartlands where historically the tories have no chance. So north east UK. Parts of Sunderland, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough etc.

That’s the leave vote split if that were to be the case. Hung parliament again !!

That is the vexed question though as to what will transpire at the forthcoming General Election as l have just read some quotes from Rob Ford, the politics professor and co-author of a seminal book on the Ukip vote.

Here are several of his quotes from today from his Twitter account.

People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)

Farage, in short, is making the John Mann error of thinking most Lab votes in Lab Leave seats are Leave voters. They aren’t. By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats

Once again the date of Brexit May hinge on politicians’ inability to understand the ecological fallacy

Appreciate this May be hard to follow so will break it down:
1. Most Lab votes in Leave seats Farage is targeting voted Remain in 2016
2.The voters who will find BXP most attractive in such seats likely to be those who voted UKIP in 2015
3. Most of those voters backed Con in 2017

4. Therefore, BXP will typically (tho not always) hurt Con more than Lab in such seats. Just as (and indeed because) UKIP’s collapse in 2017 benefitted Con more than Lab in such sets