Brexit (Old)

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Damien

Until there is a deal. I think May might get her deal though, alternatively there is a possibility of a custom's union deal that Labour will support. They might also go for a longer extension for a general election or referendum.

Or the EU might be sick of it and stick with no deal now. They don't sound too impressed with the results tonight and yesterday and their bigger concern is the European elections in May.

Once again Brexit is right there, days away if the ERG and the DUP, want it.

How many more TIMES. THERE ISN'T A DEAL OF ANY SORT CURRENTLY ON OFFER.


Therefore any withdrawal agreement is relevant. The vote says we cannot leave until we accept whatever the EU tells us to.

[Jimmy-J]

ERG to support Mays deal if it comes back a 3rd time, as long as she resigns.

Originally Posted by Damien

Rumours the EU don't believe anything will be sorted and will force no deal anyway to get it over with.

Link?

Originally Posted by nomadking

How many more TIMES. THERE ISN'T A DEAL OF ANY SORT CURRENTLY ON OFFER.


Therefore any withdrawal agreement is relevant. The vote says we cannot leave until we accept whatever the EU tells us to.

May's Withdrawal Agreement would count as leaving with a deal.

[Jimmy-J]

At the moment the default is we will leave without a deal on the 29th if nothing changes.

Originally Posted by Chris

Link?

I don't have a link but Brexitcast (BBC Podcast) or BBC One have been saying the EU27, not the council but the actual member states, don't see the point of an extension and they all need to agree.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:54 ----------

The ERG are saying they'll back May's deal in a third vote if May commits to go: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...32337202774018

Remainers might be wary of that because it wouldn't be beyond the ERG to immediately break a international agreement IMO.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

The ERG are saying they'll back May's deal in a third vote if May commits to go: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...32337202774018

Remainers might be wary of that because it wouldn't be beyond the ERG to immediately break a international agreement IMO.

---------- Post added at 20:57 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Jimmy-J

At the moment the default is we will leave without a deal on the 29th if nothing changes.

That might well change as early as tomorrow.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Damien

May's Withdrawal Agreement would count as leaving with a deal.

No it doesn't. The withdrawal agreement only last until the end of 2020.

There shall be a transition or implementation period, which shall start on the date of entry into force
of this Agreement and end on 31 December 2020.

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't have a link but Brexitcast (BBC Podcast) or BBC One have been saying the EU27, not the council but the actual member states, don't see the point of an extension and they all need to agree.

The Government motion for tomorrow proposes asking the EU for an extension until 30 June and in effect notes that:
- If Parliament votes to accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, she will go to Brussels and tell them she needs the time to pass relevant legislation
- If Parliament does not accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, Parliament is going to have to come up with some pretty good reasons why the EU should grant an extension.
- The EU is not obliged to grant an extension and it’s difficult to see why they would do so without that very good reason being put to them.
- We have to hold EU elections if we’re still a member state when they come around in late May.

There has actually been a theory floating around for months now that “managed no deal” has always been the end game, because it fully detaches the UK from the EU, looks very messy and sends a signal to the remaining members to think twice about leaving. In other words, both the UK and the EU get something out of it, even though it doesn’t look good. It still seems to stretch credibility to me, but given today’s pantomime in the Commons, somewhat less than when I first heard it.

[DocDutch]

and looks like the 1st tory mp has resigned already probably due to the whipping of mp's


wonder how many more to follow as there was a list of tories that rebelled and also a big list of abstainers.

Originally Posted by nomadking

No it doesn't. The withdrawal agreement only last until the end of 2020.

For the purposes of what happened to today then it does. Remember May's deal means we actually do leave the EU this month (or June now). At the end of 2020 we would be out of the transitional period. What's why the backstop exists.

Originally Posted by Chris

The Government motion for tomorrow proposes asking the EU for an extension until 30 June and in effect notes that:
- If Parliament votes to accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, she will go to Brussels and tell them she needs the time to pass relevant legislation
- If Parliament does not accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, Parliament is going to have to come up with some pretty good reasons why the EU should grant an extension.
- The EU is not obliged to grant an extension and it’s difficult to see why they would do so without that very good reason being put to them.
- We have to hold EU elections if we’re still a member state when they come around in late May.

There has actually been a theory floating around for months now that “managed no deal” has always been the end game, because it fully detaches the UK from the EU, looks very messy and sends a signal to the remaining members to think twice about leaving. In other words, both the UK and the EU get something out of it, even though it doesn’t look good. It still seems to stretch credibility to me, but given today’s pantomime in the Commons, somewhat less than when I first heard it.

I don't know. The EU are still pushing May's deal which I think stands an increasingly good chance of passing. I don't think anyone has any long-game played here.

---------- Post added at 21:12 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ----------

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...37583291486208

Extreme anger both inside and outside government at senior No10 aide who appears to have authorised Remain MPs to break three line whip

LOL

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Chris

The Government motion for tomorrow proposes asking the EU for an extension until 30 June and in effect notes that:
- If Parliament votes to accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, she will go to Brussels and tell them she needs the time to pass relevant legislation
- If Parliament does not accept May’s negotiated deal in the meantime, Parliament is going to have to come up with some pretty good reasons why the EU should grant an extension.
- The EU is not obliged to grant an extension and it’s difficult to see why they would do so without that very good reason being put to them.
- We have to hold EU elections if we’re still a member state when they come around in late May.

There has actually been a theory floating around for months now that “managed no deal” has always been the end game, because it fully detaches the UK from the EU, looks very messy and sends a signal to the remaining members to think twice about leaving. In other words, both the UK and the EU get something out of it, even though it doesn’t look good. It still seems to stretch credibility to me, but given today’s pantomime in the Commons, somewhat less than when I first heard it.

There is NO negotiated deal. The vote says that the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT is NULL AND VOID, and that we remain in the EU until a deal is reached, which is going to be sometime never.

[DocDutch]

guessing here but how many more resigning mp's would it take before JC puts a vote of no confidence in the gov?


can't be that many now if they resign out of the party as well

Originally Posted by nomadking

The vote says that the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT is NULL AND VOID.

No it doesn't.

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't have a link but Brexitcast (BBC Podcast) or BBC One have been saying the EU27, not the council but the actual member states, don't see the point of an extension and they all need to agree.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:54 ----------

The ERG are saying they'll back May's deal in a third vote if May commits to go: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...32337202774018

Remainers might be wary of that because it wouldn't be beyond the ERG to immediately break a international agreement IMO.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------

The ERG are saying they'll back May's deal in a third vote if May commits to go: https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...32337202774018

Remainers might be wary of that because it wouldn't be beyond the ERG to immediately break a international agreement IMO.

---------- Post added at 20:57 ---------- Previous post was at 20:56 ----------



That might well change as early as tomorrow.

From the BBC at 20:53

Tory MP and ERG deputy chairman Steve Baker calls on the government to go back to Brussels and tell the EU that no matter how many times the meaningful vote is had, Theresa May's deal "will not pass".

"When meaningful vote three comes back I will see to it that we will keep voting it down," he adds, noting that the ERG will not support the "rotten" deal, no matter how many times it is brought back.

[DocDutch]

Originally Posted by Hugh

From the BBC at 20:53

Doubt he would be able to pull it off or he would have to ignore the gov whips as well together with all the ERG members and in my mind JRM would rather see a bad deal going through than no Brexit at all