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Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 24-10-2019, 22:29   #1141
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Stuart View Post
I can't say I've seen any poor ones, but I am actually quite selective of what I watch (On the contrary, the shows I watch on Netflix are excellent). I do think that flooding the market with shows isn't going to do Netflix any favours though. I'd rather they cut the quantity down a little, and concentrated on the quality. We are going to get to the point where instead of getting excited about a new Netflix drama, people are just going to roll their eyes, shrug and say "Meh, it's another Netflix drama".
I agree about the quality, but if you scroll through the Netflix menus these days, more often than not, you are getting Netflix's own shows and films.

Netflix had to go down the quantity route in preparation for when it loses much of its third party content. There used to be just House of Cards and Orange Is The New Black, now they've got tons of their own stuff.

Can anyone name every single Netflix original now? I bet they cant.

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:13 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
On your other point about new material on broadcast TV, reality does not coincide with your view...

They delivered more than 32,000 hours of original, homegrown productions across their channels in 2018, which was around 125 times more than was shown on paid streaming services (221 hours). The vast majority of programmes available on streaming platforms are US-made productions, created to play out in multiple countries.
I would expect our broadcasters to show more UK stuff that foreign services, even though one of the main broadcasters is foreign owned. But how many of those 32k hours of programmes are decent dramas, comedies, factual shows? The vast bulk of original stuff is cheap reality shows, celebrity chefs (still going strong...) panel shows and other stuff that is made in bulk and cheaply.

I've just noticed that my Fire TV stick has the Apple ap on it now in preparation for their full launch next month. If Apple, Amazon and the other big American tech/media giants start investing in UK made content, as some like Netflix are already doing, our own broadcasters don't stand a chance of survival in the long term, in my opinion.

---------- Post added at 21:29 ---------- Previous post was at 21:21 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I have been reporting on a lot of depressing news about the likely fate of the linear channels over the last four years, but here is a glimmer of light for those who cannot imagine life without them.

I have been struck by how few new dramas are now finding their way to the TV channels,I]
It's worrying for those of us who need to watch our pennies. In the not too distant future, we could end up with "poor man's tv" ie a handful of linear, ad invested channels filled with pretty much the same crap that is on tv now and "rich man's tv" where all the decent dramas are on all the streamers, many of which will require subs.

I still think linear tv will go on for some time yet, especially the main broadcast channels, but it will be the cable/sat channels that will feel the effect of the streamers the most over the next 5-10 years.

Everything goes full circle. Before satellite tv, there was only a few tv channels and in the streaming world in the future, it may go back to that.
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Old 24-10-2019, 23:30   #1142
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I have been reporting on a lot of depressing news about the likely fate of the linear channels over the last four years, but here is a glimmer of light for those who cannot imagine life without them.

I have been struck by how few new dramas are now finding their way to the TV channels, and next week's TV & Satellite Week appears to confirm the decline of our conventional channels. No new dramas starting at all next week apart from a new series of Arrow on Sky One, whereas just three years ago, there were always lots of new good drama series commencing every week at this time of year.

Compare that with all the new stuff on Netflix, Amazon and now Apple+. TV & Satellite Week have gone from two or three pages of programmes on the streamers to nine this week!

Then, this afternoon, I read the article in the link below, which seems to suggest a change in thinking about programme distribution, and it got me wondering. Given that the number of views of programmes on the streamers is likely to decline with time, what if they then allowed the linear channels to have the right to broadcast them, either exclusively or shared with the streamer? This would bolster the revenues of the streaming companies while replenishing the content of the TV channels.

Of course, this will only work if sufficient people continue to watch scheduled TV interrupted by commercials, but it is, as I said, a glimmer of hope.

https://tbivision.com/2019/10/18/how...-again-column/

[EXTRACT]

After Netflix CEO Reed Hastings suggested at the RTS Convention in Cambridge last month that the US streamer may now be more flexible with the global rights they once pushed for so rigorously, it feels that the rules have yet again been re-defined for distributors and broadcasters. Indeed, it was reported in Cannes that rights to Netflix’s epic original drama The Crown will apparently soon be heading back to Sony Pictures Entertainment – a massive reversal to linear distribution. How the game has changed.

In the past, some traditional linear broadcasters could have seen Netflix as the enemy, but are they now viewing them as more of a strategic partner? Will more of the shows that originated on these platforms now actually be up for grabs by linear broadcasters going forward?
Laughable introductory rhetoric there. It’s easy to imagine life without linear, even life without television!

I can’t imagine life without economics though and that’s always where your argument consistently falls down.
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Old 25-10-2019, 17:41   #1143
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

For an argument to fall down it has to stand up in the first place, even briefly.

Take the latest pronouncements from Old Boy’s armchair, for example. He’s flipped through this week’s TV guide, mentally compared it with all the other TV guides ever published in the last week of October, and produced an obviously rigorous and statistically significant finding in support of his thesis.

Or not.
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Old 25-10-2019, 18:59   #1144
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
For an argument to fall down it has to stand up in the first place, even briefly.

Take the latest pronouncements from Old Boy’s armchair, for example. He’s flipped through this week’s TV guide, mentally compared it with all the other TV guides ever published in the last week of October, and produced an obviously rigorous and statistically significant finding in support of his thesis.

Or not.
tbf, he did provide substantive detailed evidence to support his proposition...
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whereas just three years ago, there were always lots of new good drama series commencing every week at this time of year.
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Old 25-10-2019, 20:43   #1145
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Laughable introductory rhetoric there. It’s easy to imagine life without linear, even life without television!

I can’t imagine life without economics though and that’s always where your argument consistently falls down.

Oh, here we go, popping his head up just to start another argument, you don't know where to stop do you, are you a troll?
As for his argument, as you put it, falling down, has any of the streamers gone bust yet?
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Old 25-10-2019, 21:04   #1146
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
Oh, here we go, popping his head up just to start another argument, you don't know where to stop do you, are you a troll?
As for his argument, as you put it, falling down, has any of the streamers gone bust yet?
Does Eleven Sports UK operation count? Or is it still ploughing on with no content? I’ll be honest it’s so far off my radar I don’t know, but happy to use it as an example that supply does not equal demand.

As for your trolling remark probably best to leave moderating to the actual moderators. Incidentally, the two posts between your post and my post above were both posted by moderators of the forum. None appear to have taken issue.
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Old 25-10-2019, 21:13   #1147
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Does Eleven Sports UK operation count? Or is it still ploughing on with no content? I’ll be honest it’s so far off my radar I don’t know, but happy to use it as an example that supply does not equal demand.

As for your trolling remark probably best to leave moderating to the actual moderators. Incidentally, the two posts between your post and my post above were both posted by moderators of the forum. None appear to have taken issue.
All you ever do is come on here when OB posts something, and more or less take it apart with your boring economics argument, imo OB is posting what he believes is happening in the streaming industry, he posts links to articles posted by people more in the know than, imo, you are, but you continue to put his points down, and imo that's just arguing for the sake of it, if you are so brilliant with economics, why don't you apply to one of the big streamers offering to sort out their financial issues?
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Old 25-10-2019, 21:19   #1148
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
All you ever do is come on here when OB posts something, and more or less take it apart with your boring economics argument, imo OB is posting what he believes is happening in the streaming industry, he posts links to articles posted by people more in the know than, imo, you are, but you continue to put his points down, and imo that's just arguing for the sake of it, if you are so brilliant with economics, why don't you apply to one of the big streamers offering to sort out their financial issues?
Thanks for your insight, but economics and finance are two different things.

I don’t think I can really be described any more “arguing for the sake of it” when I quoted a post that included the immortal line:

Quote:
I have been reporting on a lot of depressing news about the likely fate of the linear channels over the last four years, but here is a glimmer of light for those who cannot imagine life without them.
I’m not aware of anyone on the forum who feels that strongly about linear television. The closest would be Old Boy’s wife who insists he spend £100 a month on a combined package including linear content despite, in his own words, there being nothing worth watching.
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Old 25-10-2019, 21:37   #1149
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Does Eleven Sports UK operation count? Or is it still ploughing on with no content? I’ll be honest it’s so far off my radar I don’t know, but happy to use it as an example that supply does not equal demand.

As for your trolling remark probably best to leave moderating to the actual moderators. Incidentally, the two posts between your post and my post above were both posted by moderators of the forum. None appear to have taken issue.

Eleven Sports has more or less gone bust.

OB believes streaming rules and linear to will die. This may happen in the future but I seriously doubt it will happen as soon as he thinks.

What I am unsure about is why anyone thinks the demise of linear TV will be a good thing for the consumer?
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Old 26-11-2019, 19:48   #1150
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

Interesting article here on preparations for 5G.

https://www.rxtvlog.com/2019/11/wrc-...-assigned.html

In particular, the passage regarding terrestrial channels preparing to give up their frequencies in favour of internet broadcasts is confirmed here, for those who have been doubting it.

UK broadcasters and regulators are already preparing for the day digital terrestrial television loses its frequencies, with the BBC readying itself for an all-IP future and Ofcom policy-making as far back as 2013 planning for the release of TV frequencies in 2030.

Five years ahead of my prediction, hey!

Last edited by OLD BOY; 26-11-2019 at 19:54.
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Old 26-11-2019, 20:02   #1151
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Interesting article here on preparations for 5G.

https://www.rxtvlog.com/2019/11/wrc-...-assigned.html

In particular, the passage regarding terrestrial channels preparing to give up their frequencies in favour of internet broadcasts is confirmed here, for those who have been doubting it.

UK broadcasters and regulators are already preparing for the day digital terrestrial television loses its frequencies, with the BBC readying itself for an all-IP future and Ofcom policy-making as far back as 2013 planning for the release of TV frequencies in 2030.

Five years ahead of my prediction, hey!
Is that this prediction OB or the many others before that.
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Old 26-11-2019, 20:08   #1152
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Is that this prediction OB or the many others before that.
Tell me which predictions you are talking about, Den, and I'll try to answer your question. I said linear channels are likely to have disappeared by 2035. This seems to imply that the Freeview channels at least will have disappeared by 2030, to free up the airwaves for 5G.
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Old 26-11-2019, 20:48   #1153
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Tell me which predictions you are talking about, Den, and I'll try to answer your question. I said linear channels are likely to have disappeared by 2035. This seems to imply that the Freeview channels at least will have disappeared by 2030, to free up the airwaves for 5G.
It implies nothing of the sort , it's merely the distribution method that will change.

Funny linear is still mentioned here
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Old 26-11-2019, 20:54   #1154
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

“Mobile phone lobby to make case for more bandwidth” - it’s hardly news, is it Old Boy?

If you actually read the 2013 OFCOM document it merely refers to the possibility of using UHF frequencies in the “long term” of which the date 2030 features consistently throughout as an entirely arbitrary date. Further away than 2020 which is medium term (now actually a mere few weeks away). There’s also many assumptions made and outlined throughout the document and it’d be interesting to see if they held up through to 2020.

Considering it took from 1997 to 2012 to switch of analogue television I’d not be holding my breath for 2030. That said, it doesn’t preclude live linear channels from broadcasting over 5G, satellite, cable or fixed line internet in any case.

---------- Post added at 19:54 ---------- Previous post was at 19:52 ----------

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It implies nothing of the sort , it's merely the distribution method that will change.

Funny linear is still mentioned here
The DVB-I ecosystem
While DVB-I refers in particular to the forthcoming specifications for service discovery and programme information, the ecosystem extends to other DVB specifications. DVB-DASH was recently updated to include a low latency mode, while a specification for Multicast Adaptive Bit Rate streaming will be finalized in early 2020. Both are key to achieving scalable, efficient delivery of linear content over broadband networks.


This looks magnificent.
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Old 28-11-2019, 09:11   #1155
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by muppetman11 View Post
It implies nothing of the sort , it's merely the distribution method that will change.

Funny linear is still mentioned here
When most people refer to 'linear channels', they are talking about existing scheduled broadcast channels and I was using that commonly understood terminology.

Strictly speaking, of, course, 'linear' channels embraces live broadcasts, and of course they will continue, just as the BBC i-Player is able to provide live broadcasts. If we didn't have the ability to do this, we wouldn't have any live sport anymore, which would be unacceptable.

My point was that the idea of having, say, ITV, ITV2, ITV3, ITV4 etc is unlikely to continue when the existing transmission system is changed to IPTV. Everything will be under just one ITV banner or maybe grouped completely differently, as Britbox does.

Of course, we will still get our programmes and it is, as you say, a different means of transmission. However, everything will be presented differently and you will just be able to pick the programmes you want to view, which brings the choice of what to watch and when to the viewer instead of the scheduler. Obviously, news and sport will still be shown live, which goes without saying, really.

---------- Post added at 08:11 ---------- Previous post was at 07:46 ----------

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
“Mobile phone lobby to make case for more bandwidth” - it’s hardly news, is it Old Boy?

If you actually read the 2013 OFCOM document it merely refers to the possibility of using UHF frequencies in the “long term” of which the date 2030 features consistently throughout as an entirely arbitrary date. Further away than 2020 which is medium term (now actually a mere few weeks away). There’s also many assumptions made and outlined throughout the document and it’d be interesting to see if they held up through to 2020.

Considering it took from 1997 to 2012 to switch of analogue television I’d not be holding my breath for 2030. That said, it doesn’t preclude live linear channels from broadcasting over 5G, satellite, cable or fixed line internet in any case.

---------- Post added at 19:54 ---------- Previous post was at 19:52 ----------



The DVB-I ecosystem
While DVB-I refers in particular to the forthcoming specifications for service discovery and programme information, the ecosystem extends to other DVB specifications. DVB-DASH was recently updated to include a low latency mode, while a specification for Multicast Adaptive Bit Rate streaming will be finalized in early 2020. Both are key to achieving scalable, efficient delivery of linear content over broadband networks.


This looks magnificent.
You are right to say that 2030 is not cast in stone, but it cannot be. Things are moving so fast, it could be before that, or if there are unforeseen technical difficulties, it could be later. However, what cannot be denied is that Ofcom policy-making as far back as 2013 was planning for the release of TV frequencies in 2030. That being the case, my prediction that existing scheduled TV channels will have disappeared by 2035 cannot be far off.

For the sake of clarity, I am not saying that 'live' broadcasts will disappear, simply that they will be streamed instead. I really do not think the broadcasters will want to perpetuate the clumsy scheduled system that we have now. On demand viewing is growing in popularity and is really taking off now. There will be such a small demand for viewing in the conventional way by 2030 that broadcasters will seize the opportunity for change when existing broadcasting measures cease.

Maybe there will still be some Pluto-type options available for those who like that sort of thing, but I doubt that will prove to be a mainstream method of viewing.
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