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Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 02-12-2019, 19:31   #1186
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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The BBC must plan for a future where a large proportion of its audience never watch its traditional television channels, its director general will say, as he calls for the iPlayer catch-up service to become a rival to Netflix...

...Hall will tell an audience of senior television executives that the iPlayer lies at the heart of the BBC’s strategy, with proposals for more titles, box sets and programmes to be available for at least 12 months after broadcast instead of just a month. He will also call for more live programmes and archive material.

His proposals come as projections from Enders Analysis suggest traditional television channels will account for less than 50% of video viewing in the UK by 2026.

The analysts predict traditional channels such as BBC One and ITV will become the preserve of older viewers who are used to watching shows at a fixed time, with younger consumers switching to on-demand viewing and services such as YouTube.
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The BBC is preparing a complete revamp of its iPlayer streaming service in the face of competition from Netflix, as it prepares for a life beyond traditional television channels.

The move is the latest attempt by the corporation to deal with changes in the way that people consume television and maintain its relevance to younger audiences.

The BBC expects iPlayer to become the main way people view its programmes. Shows will be made available by default for up to a year, rather than the previous 30-day limit.

Although traditional television channels still account for the vast proportion of British TV viewing, and the broadcaster intends to focus on those channels and on-demand for the foreseeable future, the transition to streaming risks leaving the BBC behind.
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The BBC faces a serious “threat to its future” as younger viewers increasingly turn to streaming services such as Netflix and YouTube, according to Ofcom.

In their annual report on the corporation, the regulator expressed serious concerns about how younger viewers are turning to other platforms, saying “support for the licence fee in future could be eroded” if younger audiences continue to turn away from the platform.
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Old 02-12-2019, 19:50   #1187
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.

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Old 02-12-2019, 21:31   #1188
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.

Did OB say that there wouldn't be any linear channels? I'm pretty sure he didn't, he did say that there has to be linear TV to show live sports!
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Old 02-12-2019, 21:55   #1189
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by Mad Max View Post
Did OB say that there wouldn't be any linear channels? I'm pretty sure he didn't, he did say that there has to be linear TV to show live sports!
Well there doesnít really. A live stream can be set up ad-hoc to deliver sport (like Sky red button streams).

Linear TV as I think most of us understand it is a (usually) 24 hour broadcast where they schedule programming at specific times. Usage of the word linear aside thatís what weíve all been talking about al this time. And yes, he said there would be no linear channels as advertising revenue wouldnít sustain the model.
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Old 02-12-2019, 22:49   #1190
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.
No, but it does say
Quote:
His proposals come as projections from Enders Analysis suggest traditional television channels will account for less than 50% of video viewing
in the UK by 2026.
What will that figure be by 2035?
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Old 02-12-2019, 23:17   #1191
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

Who knows, it could be 10% by 2035. Linear will still be viable due to the low cost of broadcasting. Just look at the number of countries with less than 10% of the population of the UK that have independent TV channels. As with all projections the low hanging fruit is the easiest to achieve. The final ten per cent will be much harder.

I don’t expect it to be as low as 10%, but linear is still viable at that level. If you are Sky or anyone else paying hundreds of millions in rights the actual broadcast (over and above the rest of delivery methods you are using anyway) is relative pennies. As channels close the 10% becomes quite a captive audience.

DTT was viable even in the ITV digital days (the pay platform obviously wasn’t) when it was a gateway to a couple of million homes.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:02   #1192
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Who knows, it could be 10% by 2035. Linear will still be viable due to the low cost of broadcasting. Just look at the number of countries with less than 10% of the population of the UK that have independent TV channels. As with all projections the low hanging fruit is the easiest to achieve. The final ten per cent will be much harder.

I donít expect it to be as low as 10%, but linear is still viable at that level. If you are Sky or anyone else paying hundreds of millions in rights the actual broadcast (over and above the rest of delivery methods you are using anyway) is relative pennies. As channels close the 10% becomes quite a captive audience.

DTT was viable even in the ITV digital days (the pay platform obviously wasnít) when it was a gateway to a couple of million homes.
That was before we even had Netflix!

As for your 10%, you won't get much in the way of quality viewing on that small audience! Just a few short years ago ITV nearly went under because there was insufficient advertising to support the cost of programming.

It should be clear to you, particularly with your outstanding economics expertise that is, we understand, second to none, that 10% of the audience is not going to generate the same amount of revenue from advertising. Something has to give, and why, when the system changes to IPTV, would the broadcasters would want to duplicate a system which provides an unsatisfactory plethora of channels when the content can be packaged into all-embracing streaming services?
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:20   #1193
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
That was before we even had Netflix!

As for your 10%, you won't get much in the way of quality viewing on that small audience! Just a few short years ago ITV nearly went under because there was insufficient advertising to support the cost of programming.

It should be clear to you, particularly with your outstanding economics expertise that is, we understand, second to none, that 10% of the audience is not going to generate the same amount of revenue from advertising. Something has to give, and why, when the system changes to IPTV, would the broadcasters would want to duplicate a system which provides an unsatisfactory plethora of channels when the content can be packaged into all-embracing streaming services?
There's absolutely no need for sarcasm in your posts Old Boy, although it's unsurprising as you don't have a case so you persist with personalising it against me.

You are also arguing against points I didn't actually make - which is the norm.

At no point did I make reference to the quality, or otherwise, of linear television. Neither did I claim there would be the same amount of ad revenue floating around - pro rata - as there is today. The fact ITV nearly "went under" as you put it was programming costs which would exist anyway for ITV streaming. You are the one seeing the world in a dull black and white options when the rest of us are watching in colour.

Why would the broadcasters want to duplicate? Same reason they do today I presume with repeats, plus 1 content, on demand and online live streams. It costs virtually nothing compared to all the other operating costs of TV channel/streaming service/pay tv platform.

There's also the risk that if one company doesn't another will - and that company gets "free" advertising every time someone switches their television on and it goes to channel 1/101, in every bedroom, in every hotel room - hell even in every caravan in the country. I think Sky, or anyone else frankly, would jump at that opportunity in addition to the pay platform, streaming, Now TV and the multitude of other ways their content is available.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:52   #1194
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
There's absolutely no need for sarcasm in your posts Old Boy, although it's unsurprising as you don't have a case so you persist with personalising it against me.

You are also arguing against points I didn't actually make - which is the norm.

At no point did I make reference to the quality, or otherwise, of linear television. Neither did I claim there would be the same amount of ad revenue floating around - pro rata - as there is today. The fact ITV nearly "went under" as you put it was programming costs which would exist anyway for ITV streaming. You are the one seeing the world in a dull black and white options when the rest of us are watching in colour.

Why would the broadcasters want to duplicate? Same reason they do today I presume with repeats, plus 1 content, on demand and online live streams. It costs virtually nothing compared to all the other operating costs of TV channel/streaming service/pay tv platform.

There's also the risk that if one company doesn't another will - and that company gets "free" advertising every time someone switches their television on and it goes to channel 1/101, in every bedroom, in every hotel room - hell even in every caravan in the country. I think Sky, or anyone else frankly, would jump at that opportunity in addition to the pay platform, streaming, Now TV and the multitude of other ways their content is available.
Well, we'll see how that works out, jfman.
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Old 22-12-2019, 19:24   #1195
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Hello Old Boy,

My opinion on this remains the same as I've said before and as people choose streaming services over traditional pay tv, many linear channels will close.

However, in many regards, I see tv of tomorrow looking very much as it did thirty years ago with there remaining a core group of linear channels acting as shop windows into their respective streaming services.

Until true intelligent tv comes along (some way off) many people do not want to wade through endless menus or have to "think" about what they want to watch after a long day and a core group of linear channels which are broad in nature, as our main channels used to be, with a varied selection of programming, will dominate I believe. Having wall-to-wall reality crap and celebrity chefs will become a thing of the past as those channels with poor quality content close.

Don't be surprised within five years to find a Netflix One channel, (perhaps a Netflix Kids channel, or Netflix Crime channel etc) which shows the best of what's on offer on Netflix's streaming service. And if people want to break away from the linear schedule and binge watch a certain show, rather than waiting for the next episode to appear in the linear schedule, they've only got to enter the streaming service to do it. Ie Press the red button to binge watch the whole season of a show you're currently watching.

Who runs these linear channels in the future though, I think is very much up for debate and all depends on which streaming services survive over the next ten years or so. I believe Disney and Netflix will survive, not sure on the others yet and I believe ultimately our own UK broadcasters may well collapse.
Hi, Horizon; sorry I did not respond before now.

I guess this could all play out in a number of ways, but I cannot help thinking that the conventional TV channels will lose their appeal over time, and when DTT and satellite transmissions are switched off, we will all be viewing over the internet.

If scheduled channels have not already disappeared before, this will be the point at which the remaining ones will close down. That doesn't necessarily mean there will be no Sky, Discovery, BBC or ITV content of course - as jfman is fond of pointing out, it will simply be a different way of broadcasting. However, the viewer experience will be quite different, because access to this content will be via SVOD and AVOD streamers.

https://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Tren...and-adtech.php

I understand your point about some viewers just wanting to sit back and watch what's showing at the time, but in the future, this will be more personalised content rather than TV programmes for all put together by human schedulers. I believe that this is the way Roku may be going and I think it will be popular.

I would not rule out some showcase channels popping up before everything goes IPTV, but I doubt they would survive once that switchover happens.

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Old 22-12-2019, 19:42   #1196
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I guess this could all play out in a number of ways, but I cannot help thinking that the conventional TV channels will lose their appeal over time, and when DTT and satellite transmissions are switched off, we will all be viewing over the internet.

If scheduled channels have not already disappeared before, this will be the point at which the remaining ones will close down. That doesn't necessarily mean there will be no Sky, Discovery, BBC or ITV content of course - as jfman is fond of pointing out, it will simply be a different way of broadcasting..
Despite your protestations to the contrary, it is quite obvious that you really donít understand that delivering television entirely over IP does not in any way necessitate an end to broadcast scheduling and a switch to VOD.

This is what Jfman and I keep telling you. IP is just another way of delivering television. The means of transmitting the signal does not mandate an end to a linear stream. The main public service channels all stream their linear schedules via their IP based services, despite not doing so when the earliest versions of those services launched. A great deal of technical research and development has been expended in making HD streaming of the broadcast schedule available, as close to real-time as possible. A lot of work has also gone into resolving rights issues that previously prevented IP delivery (in a pure catch-up service this was resolved by simply omitting programmes from the menu where internet delivery rights hadnít been secured).

All the evidence is that the major TV channels continue to see a place for their linear schedules even when offered directly alongside their VOD menu.
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Old 22-12-2019, 20:19   #1197
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Despite your protestations to the contrary, it is quite obvious that you really don’t understand that delivering television entirely over IP does not in any way necessitate an end to broadcast scheduling and a switch to VOD.

This is what Jfman and I keep telling you. IP is just another way of delivering television. The means of transmitting the signal does not mandate an end to a linear stream. The main public service channels all stream their linear schedules via their IP based services, despite not doing so when the earliest versions of those services launched. A great deal of technical research and development has been expended in making HD streaming of the broadcast schedule available, as close to real-time as possible. A lot of work has also gone into resolving rights issues that previously prevented IP delivery (in a pure catch-up service this was resolved by simply omitting programmes from the menu where internet delivery rights hadn’t been secured).

All the evidence is that the major TV channels continue to see a place for their linear schedules even when offered directly alongside their VOD menu.
Chris, I understand what you are saying perfectly well. Now TV and Pluto TV carry linear channels this way. What I am saying is that linear channels will become much less popular with time and that broadcasters will conclude that there is no point in continuing with them as programmes are far more accessible on demand. When all broadcasting goes to IPTV, the natural conclusion broadcasters are likely to make is that this is the appropriate time to change for the future.

As anyone who has had to change over from manual systems to computer systems knows, you don't try to replicate how your existing systems operate on your new software. You look for more efficient ways of inputting and accessing your information.

Similarly, when DTT and satellite become a thing of the past, the broadcasting industry will be looking for the most appropriate means of making their content available, and I doubt whether scheduled linear channels such as Sky One will be on offer. Instead, the content would be displayed more in line with the BBC i-Player, Netflix and Now TV. And yes, I do acknowledge that Now TV also carries scheduled linear channels at present.

I agree that it is perfectly possible to display TV channels on IPTV, I have never said otherwise. However, this will be seen as a very antiquated way to present content on IPTV. Why would they wish to do that?

For those too lazy to actually select anything for themselves, I would wager that companies such as Virgin Media would offer a service which learns what you like to watch and then just adds programmes from streamers to which you are subscribed (or are free) on a personalised channel that just starts playing when you access it.
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Old 22-12-2019, 20:22   #1198
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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For those too lazy to actually select anything for themselves,
Hereís the very heart of your problem. You just find it impossible to understand how anyone could see things in some way other than you. And that, ultimately, is why however many threads you start on this topic, they will all go round in endless circles, with the end of broadcast TV permanently just a few years in the future.
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Old 22-12-2019, 20:38   #1199
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Hereís the very heart of your problem. You just find it impossible to understand how anyone could see things in some way other than you. And that, ultimately, is why however many threads you start on this topic, they will all go round in endless circles, with the end of broadcast TV permanently just a few years in the future.
H'mm. You may see things differently when superfast broadband comes to your house, Chris.
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Old 22-12-2019, 20:48   #1200
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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H'mm. You may see things differently when superfast broadband comes to your house, Chris.
Why would he ? I have superfast broadband available and still watch a mix of linear , recorded and On Demand content.

Many times I end up watching programmes from the TV Guide in fact I find Netflix overwhelming sometimes and give up.
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