Coronavirus

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

The trouble with figures like 70% (or whatever) for herd immunity is it assumes random distribution of immunity. But what we have at the moment is unvaccinated young people mingling with other unvaccinated young people. Each herd needs to reach 70%

True, but younger people are not getting hospitalised and the vast majority of the more vulnerable age groups have been immunised.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

True, but younger people are not getting hospitalised and the vast majority of the more vulnerable age groups have been immunised.

Younger people are being hospitalised. What you mean to say is that you don’t think that’s of any meaningful consequence because you’d prefer to open up the economy. As you have throughout.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Younger people are being hospitalised.

I'd like to see the numbers you've seen on that.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I'd like to see the numbers you've seen on that.

Why? You'll only describe them as small in any case.

Let's just call it a small number. I'll say it has the potential to grow as cases grow. You'll claim there's no evidence for that. I'll say it stands to reason as it has throughout the pandemic. And we can continue on the merry go round for another 4 weeks.

Old Boy implied the number to be zero. Which it is not.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by jfman

Why? You'll only describe them as small in any case.

Let's just call it a small number. I'll say it has the potential to grow as cases grow. You'll claim there's no evidence for that. I'll say it stands to reason as it has throughout the pandemic. And we can continue on the merry go round for another 4 weeks.

Old Boy implied the number to be zero. Which it is not.

Can you show that to be the case

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I'd like to see the numbers you've seen on that.

I was wondering this and 1 minute of Googling found this - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...tary-Data.xlsx

That data looks very good! The bulk of admissions are in the 18-54 age group. Considering that this group has the lowest vaccination rate and least likely to be hospitalised amongst adult, this looks like good news. Go back a few months and see how the balance changes - older people were the bulk of admissions

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I was wondering this and 1 minute of Googling found this - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...tary-Data.xlsx

That data looks very good! The bulk of admissions are in the 18-54 age group. Considering that this group has the lowest vaccination rate and least likely to be hospitalised amongst adult, this looks like good news. Go back a few months and see how the balance changes - older people were the bulk of admissions

I’ve not looked for a data set yet, but a commentator on the radio at lunchtime pointed out that Israel has achieved near-total vaccination now and the delta variant simply hasn’t taken hold there. Notwithstanding that they did their whole population with Pfizer which does have higher efficacy, there is every reason to believe that once we have the data here, it will permit unlocking. Especially as the additional 4 weeks delay should allow time for a further 10 million vaccinations.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, let’s just close everything down and lock everyone up forever. Job done.

Just as well you are not leading the country, you’d be lynched by now.

Good job you’re not leading the country, there would be a lot more dead and the NHS would be in ruins by now.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

I’ve not looked for a data set yet, but a commentator on the radio at lunchtime pointed out that Israel has achieved near-total vaccination now and the delta variant simply hasn’t taken hold there. Notwithstanding that they did their whole population with Pfizer which does have higher efficacy, there is every reason to believe that once we have the data here, it will permit unlocking. Especially as the additional 4 weeks delay should allow time for a further 10 million vaccinations.

If you look at Israel cases started to collapse significantly in the first two weeks of March around the same time “fully vaccinated” hit 40%. The variant changes the dynamic as does our vaccine mix, and I haven’t checked what their restrictions looked like then.

But there’s every reason to be positive as we push through 50% which the delay will take us to, and closer to 60% roughly where our “one dose” figure stands now.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I was wondering this and 1 minute of Googling found this - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...tary-Data.xlsx

That data looks very good! The bulk of admissions are in the 18-54 age group. Considering that this group has the lowest vaccination rate and least likely to be hospitalised amongst adult, this looks like good news. Go back a few months and see how the balance changes - older people were the bulk of admissions

I too have seen that data, but it's not granular enough, 18-54 is a large group, the bulk of admissions could well be in the 44-54 with much less in the 18 - 30 range. That claim was that "younger" people were being hospitalised unsurprisingly with no supporting data, or a definition of "younger". To be fair that was in response to an equally unsubstantiated claim that younger people were not being hospitalised also not supported by any data.

Case rates may have increased, especially in the North West, in the "younger" population and have dramatically reduced in the older population but have a guess who's going to hospital? (data week 23 of 2021)

https://assets.publishing.service.go...report_w23.pdf

By PHE centre, the highest hospital admission rate for COVID-19 was observed in the North West. By age groups, the highest hospital admission rate for confirmed COVID-19 was in the 85+ year olds.

By PHE Centre, the highest ICU/HDU admission rates for COVID-19 were observed in London. By age groups, the highest ICU/HDU admission rates for COVID-19 were
observed in the 75 to 84-year olds

COVID continues to be a disease that affects the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. If there are "younger" people being admitted to hospital the % certainly in the under 25s will be so small as not to register in any meaningful statistic.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I too have seen that data, but it's not granular enough, 18-54 is a large group, the bulk of admissions could well be in the 44-54 with much less in the 18 - 30 range. That claim was that "younger" people were being hospitalised unsurprisingly with no supporting data, or a definition of "younger". To be fair that was in response to an equally unsubstantiated claim that younger people were not being hospitalised also not supported by any data.

Case rates may have increased, especially in the North West, in the "younger" population and have dramatically reduced in the older population but have a guess who's going to hospital? (data week 23 of 2021)

https://assets.publishing.service.go...report_w23.pdf

COVID continues to be a disease that affects the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. If there are "younger" people being admitted to hospital the % certainly in the under 25s will be so small as not to register in any meaningful statistic.

So which is it?

Younger people don’t get hospitalised as OB said or what I stated:

What you mean to say is that you don’t think that’s of any meaningful consequence because you’d prefer to open up the economy. As you have throughout.

You’re firmly in the latter camp. As someone privileged and unaffected by restrictions it’s unsurprising I suppose that you give no consideration to the health impact for groups that restrictions are there to protect (the unvaccinated due to age).

Gladly Boris is about to put paid to this June 21st nonsense and show us the meaningful data the Government are using (who knows - it might even be granular enough for you but I have my doubts), provide reassurance that the economy needs that we are doing all we can to avoid another lockdown.

Who knows in 5 weeks we could all be down the lap dancing.

July 29th? Bit later than we thought.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Damien

July 29th? Bit later than we thought.

Suspect he meant 19th.

Or I misheard. Does seem to be the 19th

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Damien

Or I misheard. Does seem to be the 19th

I heard 29th one of the times.

---------- Post added at 18:19 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

We can safely say he’s not prepared an answer for the planted questions.