Coronavirus

[Taf]

86 local authorities out of 343 in England have at least 5 cases of the Indian variant.

2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant in the UK, a 77% increase in confirmed cases over the last five days.

Most people in hospital with the variant in those areas had been eligible for a vaccine but had chosen not to have it.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Taf

86 local authorities out of 343 in England have at least 5 cases of the Indian variant.

2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant in the UK, a 77% increase in confirmed cases over the last five days.

Most people in hospital with the variant in those areas had been eligible for a vaccine but had chosen not to have it.

I like the way they can tell us this much but not a precise figure on how many had been vaccinated (1 dose or 2) as a proportion of all hospitalisations.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

In fairness you’ve been wrong every single time you’ve said it before

What metrics should they be using then, and why?[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added at 20:46 ---------- Previous post was at 20:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Taf

86 local authorities out of 343 in England have at least 5 cases of the Indian variant.

5, truly terrifying.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

What metrics should they be using then, and why?

Restrictions are necessary as soon as it can be projected that the NHS will be overwhelmed to delay that as much as possible. This can be reasonable done by measuring cases, rise in cases, proportion heading to hospital (within 2-3 weeks or so), proportions dying (3-6 weeks).

It’s exactly the same position we’ve been in since February 2020. As I’ve been repeating often since then the decision making that led to the first lockdown remains unless something materially changes.

We’ve introduced the vaccine to some degree of success. It rearranges the figures to some degree for now, but doesn’t change the underlying decision making process.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Taf

86 local authorities out of 343 in England have at least 5 cases of the Indian variant.

2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant in the UK, a 77% increase in confirmed cases over the last five days.

Most people in hospital with the variant in those areas had been eligible for a vaccine but had chosen not to have it.

If people cannot be persuaded to take the vaccine then what is the solution? Locking down the impacted areas in Greater Manchester and Lancashire or indeed the entire counties may sound drastic but it certainly sends a message out.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

If people cannot be persuaded to take the vaccine then what is the solution? Locking down the impacted areas in Greater Manchester and Lancashire or indeed the entire counties may sound drastic but it certainly sends a message out.

Vaccine passports.

Straightforward risk management to support the vaccinated to return to their normal lives at the expense of those unwilling to vaccinate for the collective good.

Holidays is a good start. Large sports events and concerts. Very quickly the numbers of people willing to take a “principled stand” diminish. Once we push the Pfizer vaccine at 12-16 year olds that’ll help push us closer to population level immunity.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Pierre

We should continue to live in fear. Makes perfect sense.

Mortality rate is under 50’s - 0.5 %
Mortality rate in under 40’s - 0.19%
Mortality rate in under 30’s - 0.04%
Mortality rate in under 20’s - 0.01%

And this is before the vaccine roll out got really going.

Yes, we should all live in fear.

The government and the media really have done a number on everyone.


https://www.gov.uk/government/public...england-report

Why do people quote mortality rates, they may look low, but not you lose a family member, in which case the 0.01% is no joke, or fear it's fact.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by jfman

Vaccine passports.

Straightforward risk management to support the vaccinated to return to their normal lives at the expense of those unwilling to vaccinate for the collective good.

Holidays is a good start. Large sports events and concerts. Very quickly the numbers of people willing to take a “principled stand” diminish.

Until one or more of them start blowing things up , because they're being treated differently

[jfman]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

[/B]
Until one or more of them start blowing things up , because they're being treated differently

Tell the police to pretend they are women protesting their rights. That usually develops an appropriate show of force.

Or Irish carrying a table leg

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Why do people quote mortality rates, they may look low, but not you lose a family member, in which case the 0.01% is no joke, or fear it's fact.

Facts are facts. Personal experiences of loss are tragic, but emotions are not good decision making driver.

The rates may look low, because they are low, and when the impact to the minority, and it is a minority, starts dictating the actions and freedoms of the majority, that’s an issue.

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Originally Posted by jfman

Tell the police to pretend they are women protesting their rights. That usually develops an appropriate show of force.

Or Irish carrying a table leg

Or a Brazilian electrician.

The Indian variant has come at quite possibly the most inconvenient time. Just as we're opening up but whilst we still have a lot of people to vaccinate.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by jfman

I like the way they can tell us this much but not a precise figure on how many had been vaccinated (1 dose or 2) as a proportion of all hospitalisations.

Well they appear to know for Bolton:
"In Bolton there are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus, with the majority of those not having the jab despite being eligible, the health secretary said.

He added that five people had ended up in hospital having had one jab, while there was one there who had received both doses but was 'frail'"

That's a worryingly high proportion (although we don't know when they had their jabs)

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

Well they appear to know for Bolton:
"In Bolton there are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus, with the majority of those not having the jab despite being eligible, the health secretary said.

He added that five people had ended up in hospital having had one jab, while there was one there who had received both doses but was 'frail'"

That's a worryingly high proportion (although we don't know when they had their jabs)

Five, is a “worryingly” high proportion?

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Five, is a “worryingly” high proportion?

a 3rd of those in hospital had been vaccinated at least once. So yes it is worrying

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

a 3rd of those in hospital had been vaccinated at least once. So yes it is worrying

That would be 6 people, very worrying. Probably not going to sleep tonight.