[Updated]U.S hold diplomatic Summit with North Korea

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

What happens afterwards?

If we've learned anything from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc., is that there has to be a plan for after the military action - otherwise chaos and ongoing conflict ensues.

Having some sort of plan is vital but, even if there is one, the world is such that chaos and ongoing conflict will probably ensue no matter what we do. It'd be great if we could get away with choosing the least worst option but we can't even do that with any degree of certainty and even that outcome might be horrendous. God only knows where this is going to end up but with KJU in possession of nukes and the US, Russia, China and Japan all having competing interests I don't see it ending well for anyone. Glad I'm not calling the shots...

I think the problem is that no one is even thinking about "afterwards", rather than there being a least worst option.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the problem is that no one is even thinking about "afterwards", rather than there being a least worst option.

In a number of scenarios there is no 'afterwards' to think about.

A pre-emptive attack on NK is likely to lead to a nuclear response from them and a response from China. As soon as China get involved Article 5 kicks in, and Russia are likely to join in with China.

If I became aware of Seoul being evacuated I would be considering my life choices closely.

I'm not convinced Japan will remain non-nuclear either. They have the technology to have fully functional weapons of at least intermediate range in months. The only reason they haven't done so as yet is the US's nuclear umbrella, and that seems to be weakening.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the problem is that no one is even thinking about "afterwards", rather than there being a least worst option.

Hmmm I'm not sure that's true.

I'm sure a good many people are thinking about it and getting their brains tied up in knots. The problem is that there are so many imponderables and NK is so powerful that even with the might of the world aimed against them they could still cause a lot of trouble and do a whole lot of damage. That wasn't so much the case with Iraq or Afghanistan who posed no huge direct threat to the west really. It could most definitely be the case with Iran however and what to do about that regime is another big problem waiting on the horizon for the strategists to mull over in their free time...

South Korea has reported that North Korea has tonight, fired an unidentified missile that has again been flown over Japan.

http://news.sky.com/story/north-kore...ssile-11036058

We need to send an elite group of troops over there to take that little fat bustard out!

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr Banana

We need to send an elite group of troops over there to take that little fat bustard out!

Sounds all very agreeable Mr B but one has to remember the quagmires of the of the past like Vietnam , Iraq and Afghanistan before we ever contemplate those steps again.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by Mr Banana

We need to send an elite group of troops over there to take that little fat bustard out!

You also have to remember that there is no friendly resistance of any significance in NK. They're all totally brainwashed so any kind of local knowledge, essential for a covert operation like this, is likely to be scanty at best.

[Osem]

It'd be interesting to see what would happen if the madman was taken out and his obvious grip on those around him thereby released. How would they react? On the basis of some form of pre-determined armageddon type retaliation on SK, Japan etc. or would they seize the chance to have freedom from his tyranny and bring NK into the 21st C?

I wouldn't to be betting my life savings on the outcome of that scenario anyway.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Mr Banana

We need to send an elite group of troops over there to take that little fat bustard out!

For better or worse that, and any other proactive military intervention, are off the table.

What the launch does indicate, however, is that even the weakened actions that have been put in place are getting under Kim's skin.

China can bring him down in months however they fear a refugee crisis.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

China can bring him down in months however they fear a refugee crisis.

Better than a nuclear crisis I guess .. It is really only China that can resolve this. Doesn't China supply 90% of NK's crude?

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Better than a nuclear crisis I guess .. It is really only China that can resolve this. Doesn't China supply 90% of NK's crude?

IIRC it's all supplied by one pipeline over a bridge. A "terrorist" attack might disable it for long enough to bring the regime to it's knees.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Better than a nuclear crisis I guess .. It is really only China that can resolve this. Doesn't China supply 90% of NK's crude?

Yes. They cut that off the regime topples as the entire country grinds to a halt.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Yes. They cut that off the regime topples as the entire country grinds to a halt.

... precipitating a massive refugee crisis, much of which will come China's way; paving the way for the collapse of NK into massive civil war as the high heid yins battle it out for supremacy; and not forgetting the long-term risk of reunification, which would put an American ally and American military hardware and personnel right on China's southeastern border.

China badly wants the Kim regime to survive, purely for its own interest. I suspect they do have a line beyond which they will no longer tolerate the instability he's causing, but where they've drawn it is anyone's guess.

[Gary L]

I think it would be so cool if Trump were to totally destroy Korea.

but as we all know. he's all talk. so no chance of it happening.