Brexit (Old) - Page 37

1andrew1 · 16-07-2018, 20:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Not really. A proposed deal the EU won't accept will not be accepted and will simply result in article 50 being invoked without a deal. Simple.

I doubt history will share your rosy views of this current Parliament, Old Boy.
Who knows what will happen if no deal exists by March 2019. Will Theresa May resign? Will the Speaker refer matters back to Parliament for a vote? Totally unprecedented situation.

OLD BOY · 16-07-2018, 21:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I doubt history will share your rosy views of this current Parliament, Old Boy.
Who knows what will happen if no deal exists by March 2019. Will Theresa May resign? Will the Speaker refer matters back to Parliament for a vote? Totally unprecedented situation.

Whether or not Theresa May resigns won't make much difference now. Parliament is not going to agree any kind of deal that the EU is likely to accept, so what option is there but WTO?
Parliament has just turned down a motion to put it back to the people.

1andrew1 · 16-07-2018, 21:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Whether or not Theresa May resigns won't make much difference now. Parliament is not going to agree any kind of deal that the EU is likely to accept, so what option is there but WTO?
Parliament has just turned down a motion to put it back to the people.

If she resigns I would expect an election and a delay to Article 50.

Sephiroth · 16-07-2018, 21:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

If she resigns I would expect an election and a delay to Article 50.

Who would instigate the delay?

**Damien** · 16-07-2018, 21:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Whether or not Theresa May resigns won't make much difference now. Parliament is not going to agree any kind of deal that the EU is likely to accept, so what option is there but WTO?
Parliament has just turned down a motion to put it back to the people.

The EU will likely accept an EEA deal or a Canada deal. They've made it quite clear there are several options open the UK. The difference is we don't want either because the former is too close to EU membership and the latter wouldn't work for our industries. So we want a bespoke deal which is harder to achieve since we're largely aiming for the single market part of the deal without the ECJ and freedom of movement.

The most likely option to me seems that we kick the can down the road, agree the extension period, while we work on a Canada++ or a Norway-- deal.

But let's stop pretending we've been rejected time and time again from the EU because we only came up with the White Paper last week so this notion that is being created in the event we leave of the EU rejecting every proposal was turned down is pure fan-fiction.

---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Who would instigate the delay?

We request to the EU. However I don't think it would be a delay but the 'transition period'.

1andrew1 · 16-07-2018, 21:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Who would instigate the delay?

I guess PM Jeremy?

OLD BOY · 16-07-2018, 21:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

If she resigns I would expect an election and a delay to Article 50.

Dream on, Andrew! There will be no delay to Article 50 - it has already been invoked. Any delay would not go down well with the electorate.

The way this will play out is the new leader would scrap the Chequers Agreement in its entirety and notify the EU that there will be no proposal but we are open to offers of a trade deal. In the meantime, WTO rules apply. Only then would there be an election.

**Damien** · 16-07-2018, 22:01

Government survives rebellion by three votes.

**Mick** · 16-07-2018, 22:24

BREAKING: 10th Resignation from Government: Defence minister Guto Bebb quits government

ianch99 · 16-07-2018, 22:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

Government survives rebellion by three votes.

Quote:

New Clause 36 is the European Research Group amendment to ensure that the UK does not collect taxes for the EU without a reciprocal arrangement.

Is the EU likely to agree to collect UK taxes or was this added as a "poison pill" amendment?

**Mick** · 16-07-2018, 22:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: 10th Resignation from Government: Defence minister Guto Bebb quits government

Just to add, this is unlike the other resignations - this is a resignation on the ERG Amendments to the White Paper that were agreed to this evening.

1andrew1 · 16-07-2018, 23:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

Government survives rebellion by three votes.

Apparently propped up by three rebellious Labour Eurosceptics - Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Dream on, Andrew! There will be no delay to Article 50 - it has already been invoked. Any delay would not go down well with the electorate.

The way this will play out is the new leader would scrap the Chequers Agreement in its entirety and notify the EU that there will be no proposal but we are open to offers of a trade deal. In the meantime, WTO rules apply. Only then would there be an election.

We just don't know, Old Boy. All we know is that Theresa May is not going down well with the electorate at the moment.

Meanwhile, Michael Gove attempts to rewrite history.
Michael Gove: I wanted 'different feel' to Vote Leave campaign
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...mpaign=bbcnews

denphone · 17-07-2018, 05:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Apparently propped up by three rebellious Labour Eurosceptics - Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer.

We just don't know, Old Boy. All we know is that Theresa May is not going down well with the electorate at the moment.

Meanwhile, Michael Gove attempts to rewrite history.
Michael Gove: I wanted 'different feel' to Vote Leave campaign
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...mpaign=bbcnews

l ain't no fan of this administration but l ain't no fan of Jezza either but sadly OB can't take off his rose tinted glasses to see what a omnishambles it is and the deep mire we are in...

OLD BOY · 17-07-2018, 07:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone

l ain't no fan of this administration but l ain't no fan of Jezza either but sadly OB can't take off his rose tinted glasses to see what a omnishambles it is and the deep mire we are in...

Because the numbers don't add up, Den. You czn see that, right?

That's why governments work best when they have a good majority.

1andrew1 · 17-07-2018, 07:35

Breaking: Vote Leave heavily fined and referred to Police for breaking the law. The organisation's lack of co-operation suggests it was not an honest mistake.

Quote:

Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign, has been fined and referred to the police for breaking electoral law.
The Electoral Commission found that the campaign group exceeded its legal spending limit of £7m by almost £500,000 during the 2016 referendum campaign.
The allegations centre around a £625,000 payment Vote Leave gave to the youth-focused campaign group BeLeave, led by fashion student Darren Grimes.
BeLeave then spent more than £675,000 with Aggregate IQ under a common plan with Vote Leave, the commission said.
Bob Posner, the Electoral Commission's director of political finance and regulation and legal counsel, said it had found "clear and substantial" breaches of the law.
He said: "Vote Leave has resisted our investigation from the start, including contesting our right as the statutory regulator to open the investigation.
"It has refused to cooperate, refused our requests to put forward a representative for interview, and forced us to use our legal powers to compel it to provide evidence.
"Nevertheless, the evidence we have found is clear and substantial, and can now be seen in our report."

https://news.sky.com/story/vote-leav...l-law-11439218