Liz Truss Resigns [Who'll be the next Prime Minister?]

[Pierre]

Tory voters are not going to support Sunak, I’ve voted Tory since Cameron, I’m not voting for a Tory party lead by Sunak.

This is almost as bad a situation after the May general election, when we had a Brexit mandate but no one wanted to do it.

Sunak can do nothing, he’s the PM no one wanted, he helped cause the current economic crisis, he has no connection with the electorate.

In the words of David Steele. Starmer, go back to your constituencies, and prepare for government.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Tory voters are not going to support Sunak, I’ve voted Tory since Cameron, I’m not voting for a Tory party lead by Sunak.

This is almost as bad a situation after the May general election, when we had a Brexit mandate but no one wanted to do it.

Sunak can do nothing, he’s the PM no one wanted, he helped cause the current economic crisis, he has no connection with the electorate.

In the words of David Steele. Starmer, go back to your constituencies, and prepare for government.

I'm no fan of Sunak and agree he has little connection with most of the electorate and the next election is Starmer's to lose.

But the current crisis was caused by Truss and her former Chancellor Kwarteng. Sunak, like many, warned that Truss's over-borrowing would spook the markets. He wasn't wrong.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s convenient he had this realisation tonight and not 2.05pm tomorrow.

Why? I don’t see the timing making much difference, if any.

He seems to have tried to exact a price from Sunak, been sent packing, and spent the afternoon contemplating whether getting the job back is worth the cost. Apparently it isn’t, which is somewhat lucky for us judging by immediate market reaction.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Why? I don’t see the timing making much difference, if any.

He seems to have tried to exact a price from Sunak, been sent packing, and spent the afternoon contemplating whether getting the job back is worth the cost. Apparently it isn’t, which is somewhat lucky for us judging by immediate market reaction.

The FT reports Johnson told Sunak that he would get the 100 votes, the members would then choose him over Sunak, so Sunak should step down in the interests of party unity. However, at that stage Sunak had double the number of votes of Johnson so rebuffed him.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s convenient he had this realisation tonight and not 2.05pm tomorrow.

Indeed.

Many Tory MPs believed he [Johnson] was acting in his own interest: to avoid the prospect of a humiliating defeat at the hands of his old rival, Sunak, when the votes were counted on Monday.

https://www.ft.com/content/80a44533-...b-83d9b434d184

Well we’ll have endless fun speculating for days anyway. Truth is we’ll never really know.

[Kursk]

Rishi Sunak as PM? "Dear, oh dear".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Why? I don’t see the timing making much difference, if any.

He seems to have tried to exact a price from Sunak, been sent packing, and spent the afternoon contemplating whether getting the job back is worth the cost. Apparently it isn’t, which is somewhat lucky for us judging by immediate market reaction.

Timing saves him the humiliation of revealing he didn’t have 100 votes despite what his team were peddling all weekend.

The extrapolation of Guido’s figures relies upon the leap of faith that around 80% of party office holders who “have to remain anonymous” coming out for him almost immediately while only about 20% of other MPs had by 9pm last night.

We will indeed never know, conveniently and entirely by design.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Tory voters are not going to support Sunak, I’ve voted Tory since Cameron, I’m not voting for a Tory party lead by Sunak.
.

The thing that surprises me about this is that Sunak is more of a Tory than a lot of others. Wants to cut spending and taxes generally. You've been talking of furlough spending but that was more something he had to do, it's why he was generally against the lockdowns.

I don't like him. He'll be less likely to do anything bold and against the election mandate. Although it's harsh to hold someone's wealth against them I do believe his riches and American green card also disconnect him from the public a bit.

He seems to be one of the many politicians whose in it because they think it's a cool gig rather than motivated by a cause. I think it's likely he may have left at the next election to do something else if he thought his time had passed. Like Cameron, like Osborne, and David Miliband. People whose motivation was to be PM and not to be in Parliament or public service. Contrast that to May who stuck around and Brown who stunk around for a bit and then did public service-type stuff after he left.

---------- Post added at 08:41 ---------- Previous post was at 08:36 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Why? I don’t see the timing making much difference, if any.

He seems to have tried to exact a price from Sunak, been sent packing, and spent the afternoon contemplating whether getting the job back is worth the cost. Apparently it isn’t, which is somewhat lucky for us judging by immediate market reaction.

It seems odd to have that moment of reflection so late in the process. Johnson flew back early from his holiday for this after all, he wouldn't do that just because he is technically still an MP.

---------- Post added at 09:02 ---------- Previous post was at 08:41 ----------

If the Tories really care about the economy they would elect Mordaunt thus making me several hundred pounds richer.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

The thing that surprises me about this is that Sunak is more of a Tory than a lot of others. Wants to cut spending and taxes generally. You've been talking of furlough spending but that was more something he had to do, it's why he was generally against the lockdowns.

I don't like him. He'll be less likely to do anything bold and against the election mandate. Although it's harsh to hold someone's wealth against them I do believe his riches and American green card also disconnect him from the public a bit.

He seems to be one of the many politicians whose in it because they think it's a cool gig rather than motivated by a cause. I think it's likely he may have left at the next election to do something else if he thought his time had passed. Like Cameron, like Osborne, and David Miliband. People whose motivation was to be PM and not to be in Parliament or public service. Contrast that to May who stuck around and Brown who stunk around for a bit and then did public service-type stuff after he left.

I'm sure he'll be a competent caretaker Prime Minister who will grow the Conservative poll ratings but he won't win at the next general election. His weakness is he was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and is seen as an out of touch member of the global elite.

Originally Posted by Damien

It seems odd to have that moment of reflection so late in the process. Johnson flew back early from his holiday for this after all, he wouldn't do that just because he is technically still an MP.

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Damien

If the Tories really care about the economy they would elect Mordaunt thus making me several hundred pounds richer.

Let's not forget the elephant in the room which has got the Conservative Party into its current mess.

They would also seek a better trading relationship with Europe if they really cared about the economy. Let's not forget that Johnson's rushed Brexit deal is costing us £40bn in tax revenue every year and we're the only G7 nation not to have recovered to pre-Covid levels.

[jfman]

So I guess the next question is - assuming Rishi loses the next election - does he walk and who replaces him then? Becoming the fifth leader in ten years.

Originally Posted by jfman

So I guess the next question is - assuming Rishi loses the next election - does he walk and who replaces him then? Becoming the fifth leader in ten years.

Cometh the hour, cometh the egomaniac…

I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.

If they lose then it depends who remains in Parliament if if they go to the One Nation Tories or the Culture War Tories.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

So I guess the next question is - assuming Rishi loses the next election - does he walk and who replaces him then? Becoming the fifth leader in ten years.

I doubt Sunak would want to stay on as Starmer will doubtless be in power for five years, maybe ten. Ditto Johnson, not sure about Mordaunt. Perhaps she could keep the seat warm as a capable pair of hands until new Conservative talent emerges in the late 2020s?

---------- Post added at 09:47 ---------- Previous post was at 09:46 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

If they lose then it depends who remains in Parliament if if they go to the One Nation Tories or the Culture War Tories.

Didn't Johnson try and do both simultaneously?

For all his faults I don't think Johnson was a natural to the culture war stuff or used it that much. Mostly because although I think his own ego and self-interest override everything else he is naturally a liberally (as in the European, not American, usage of the term) minded politician. That's why he was a good fit for the Mayor of London at the time.

But there is a generation of MP - from the 2010 and 2015 intake - that are more at home with it such as Braverman. Whereas I think Johnson would all try to use divisive language as a last resort in the fact of falling support I think people like Braverman reach for it as a matter of instinct. Their politics is much more about enemies and threats rather than building anything.

[jfman]

Penny’s supporters claiming 90. She must have the same 50 friends from another town as Boris.