Brexit

I don't think the EU will renegotiate.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

I don't think the EU will renegotiate.

I think they will if they are faced with us leaving with no deal and no payment.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

I don't think the EU will renegotiate.

There does seem to be a lot of wishful thinking going on. The Tories are choosing a new leader, we are not changing government, so there is nothing new can be brought to the table.

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I think they will if they are faced with us leaving with no deal and no payment.

It's no skin off their nose if we leave under those circumstances. They won't be the one's to suffer. They won't renegotiate.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I think they will if they are faced with us leaving with no deal and no payment.

Not paying only damages us, making us look like a poor bet to pay bills.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Angua

Not paying only damages us, making us look like a poor bet to pay bills.

That's an interesting opinion but it's wrong.

The EU will demand the £39 billion as a prerequisite for any forthcoming trade deal and since we'll be out at that point, and in greater need of a trade deal, they'll be in a stronger not weaker position to do so.

I think they'll offer better wording around the backstop. Something May sorta secured but no one believed. Legally the position will remain the same but packaged in such a way MPs can claim down and vote for a version of May's deal.

[Angua]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

That's an interesting opinion but it's wrong.

History would say otherwise.

[nomadking]

Where in article 50 does it specify the rules for calculating any "divorce" bill? If there were any it would have been calculated on a regular basis for each EU country, and certainly before "negotiations" about the Withdrawal agreement or even the referendum.

One key plank of the EU imposed basis, is "agreed" spending. The EU doesn't do "agreed". The original "agreement", ie budget, was how money was to be spent, not raised. The money raised is on the basis on being part of the EU. If we're no longer in the EU, then we're not liable for any fees for membership and benefits of the "club".


As they've given us(after 1984), a 66% rebate, it shows that they've been severely overcharging since we joined.

[Carth]

As far as I understand it, and it seems to be backed up by the hysteria sometimes shown on here, the EU exports £Billions of goods (of any shape size and form) into the UK every year.

If we leave with no deal and no trade agreements, how will the EU manage their loss of revenue and potential manufacturing slowdown?

Surely it will be in everyones favour to have temporary trade deals in place until definite deals are thrashed out

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

The EU will demand the £39 billion as a prerequisite for any forthcoming trade deal and since we'll be out at that point, and in greater need of a trade deal, they'll be in a stronger not weaker position to do so.

I think they'll offer better wording around the backstop. Something May sorta secured but no one believed. Legally the position will remain the same but packaged in such a way MPs can claim down and vote for a version of May's deal.

I reckon:
- Boris PM
- Brexit extension of max six months
- Reworded withdrawal agreement or appendices
- MPs vote narrowly to accept it.

---------- Post added at 14:05 ---------- Previous post was at 14:02 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

As far as I understand it, and it seems to be backed up by the hysteria sometimes shown on here, the EU exports £Billions of goods (of any shape size and form) into the UK every year.

If we leave with no deal and no trade agreements, how will the EU manage their loss of revenue and potential manufacturing slowdown?

Surely it will be in everyones favour to have temporary trade deals in place until definite deals are thrashed out

Yes, that's called the Withdrawal Agreement.

[Carth]

but we don't have one

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

but we don't have one

We'll either have a withdrawal agreement or we won't leave.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I think they will if they are faced with us leaving with no deal and no payment.

Well they've called our bluff twice now, then we've had to beg for extensions when we realised they weren't changing the deal. What makes you think the next 'deadline' will be any different ? They've been consistent and unified, we haven't. And who the heck is going to any trade deals with us, if it's known we don't honour our side?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Damien

The EU will demand the £39 billion as a prerequisite for any forthcoming trade deal and since we'll be out at that point, and in greater need of a trade deal, they'll be in a stronger not weaker position to do so.

I think they'll offer better wording around the backstop. Something May sorta secured but no one believed. Legally the position will remain the same but packaged in such a way MPs can claim down and vote for a version of May's deal.

If it’s Boris, he’ll have to keep his word on the 39 billion. Sod them, they will always try to disadvantage us so we need to be smart. And we are provided the politicians sort themselves out.