Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Voting for the SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence, Mr K. The only real choice lies between the hated Conservatives, the discredited Labour Party, the naive Greens and the SNP. Not exactly a brilliant choice for them, is it?

It was a vote to fail to achieve it's goal,proven by the 2014 indy ref.
The SNP will never deliver independence, but other parties are available that might get the job done.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Voting for the SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence, Mr K. The only real choice lies between the hated Conservatives, the discredited Labour Party, the naive Greens and the SNP. Not exactly a brilliant choice for them, is it?

A vote for the SNP may not always be a vote for independence but there has been consistent polling in the last few months favouring independence - the first time this has happened.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A vote for the SNP may not always be a vote for independence but there has been consistent polling in the last few months favouring independence - the first time this has happened.

More fool them.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

More fool them.

It's a trade-off.

Less money in the wallet for a number of years v not being governed by unelected bureaucrats like Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe and Dominic Cummings.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's a trade-off.

Less money in the wallet for a number of years v not being governed by unelected bureaucrats like Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe and Dominic Cummings.

You forgot about negotiating their own trade deals Andrew . . . seeing as you seem to be poking at the Brexit scenario

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's a trade-off.

Less money in the wallet for a number of years v not being governed by unelected bureaucrats like Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe and Dominic Cummings.

You go to silly extremes.

What we're looking at here is £25 billion shortfall for 5 million population (if they stay there). That's £5,000/head or very much more per family. Where is that going to come from? You haven't said.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You go to silly extremes.

What we're looking at here is £25 billion shortfall for 5 million population (if they stay there). That's £5,000/head or very much more per family. Where is that going to come from? You haven't said.

I don't have to as I'm not making the case for independence. I believe Scotland is better off in both Unions but I don't live there so it's not my decision.

I also need to point out that Nomad King says the figure in question is not £25bn but £12bn and I believe others believe it's even lower.

I'm pointing out that people are allowed to make emotional decisions that might make them financially worse off as they feel the other benefits outweigh the costs. As a Brexiter, I'm surprised that you don't feel at least some empathy with this argument.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A vote for the SNP may not always be a vote for independence but there has been consistent polling in the last few months favouring independence - the first time this has happened.

What matters is when you get down to the nitty-gritty of asking the awkward questions, as to what happens afterwards. While there's no real discussion taking place at the time, people are unlikely to change their minds.


They keep going on about "if only we'd been allowed to keep the oil money", but the oil revenues only cover a fraction of their annual deficit. There would've been no, or at best little surplus to invest anywhere.

Eg Even in the "golden days" of high oil prices of 2011/12, there was no money left over to invest anywhere. That's with 100% of oil being attributed to Scotland.

The latest figures from GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) for 2011-12 show that £11.25bn was paid into the UK exchequer from North Sea revenues, historically high oil prices and a raised supplementary tax rate made it one of the largest figures ever

Link

In 2012-13, Scotland's estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £17.6 billion (14.0% of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue,

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

You forgot about negotiating their own trade deals Andrew . . . seeing as you seem to be poking at the Brexit scenario

I don't see trade deals as being a driver for Scottish independence.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I don't have to as I'm not making the case for independence. I believe Scotland is better off in both Unions but I don't live there so it's not my decision.

I also need to point out that Nomad King says the figure in question is not £25bn but £12bn and I believe others believe it's even lower.

I'm pointing out that people are allowed to make emotional decisions that might make them financially worse off as they feel the other benefits outweigh the costs. As a Brexiter, I'm surprised that you don't feel at least some empathy with this argument.

The £25bn isn't the correct figure, whatever basis you use, as I pointed out that a chunk of the £25bn figure is UK level taxes originating in Scotland being returned to them. With independence that chunk would go directly to Scotland instead.

The Brexit comparison is bogus, as usual. There is a huge difference between possible financial downsides, which depend on possible agreements with the EU, and cast-iron downsides that are irrespective of any possible agreements. If you were to attempt to compare them, then you would have to add in all the similar possible financial downsides, eg borders and tariffs with the remainder of the UK. Additionally as I've also pointed out, Scotland would automatically lose access to whatever trade deals with the EU or wherever, that the UK might have at the time. As for automatic Scottish membership of the EU, with Brexit that will have gone out of the window. Scotland are no longer part of the EU, that happens to break away from the UK. They are currently not in the EU. It is no longer comparable to Catalonia, which is still part of the EU.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I don't have to as I'm not making the case for independence. I believe Scotland is better off in both Unions but I don't live there so it's not my decision.

I also need to point out that Nomad King says the figure in question is not £25bn but £12bn and I believe others believe it's even lower.

I'm pointing out that people are allowed to make emotional decisions that might make them financially worse off as they feel the other benefits outweigh the costs. As a Brexiter, I'm surprised that you don't feel at least some empathy with this argument.

First, you gratuitously brought in Dido and Cummings.
That is going to extremes. I know what you mean but the comment makes no valid point.

On your Brexiter point, I hope it is not sincerely intended. Scotland is constitutionally part of an integrated national entity and if Scotland wants to be financially better off (earning it, of course), then:

1/
In the realms of the bleedin' obvious, the £25 billion or whatever sum needs to be found from Scottish resources.

2/
There is a negotiation to be had at UK level as to investment in Scotland. Of course that needs to be equitable with the rest of the UK.

The above said, we are a democracy and if Scotland wants to leave the UK, then please go and sod 'em.

The problem with your arguments is that you put up straw men you don't believe in. Somewhat jfman-esque!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

First, you gratuitously brought in Dido and Cummings.
That is going to extremes. I know what you mean but the comment makes no valid point.

On your Brexiter point, I hope it is not sincerely intended. Scotland is constitutionally part of an integrated national entity and if Scotland wants to be financially better off (earning it, of course), then:

1/
In the realms of the bleedin' obvious, the £25 billion or whatever sum needs to be found from Scottish resources.

2/
There is a negotiation to be had at UK level as to investment in Scotland. Of course that needs to be equitable with the rest of the UK.

The above said, we are a democracy and if Scotland wants to leave the UK, then please go and sod 'em.

The problem with your arguments is that you put up straw men you don't believe in. Somewhat jfman-esque!

No straw men in my arguments unless the two individuals I cited have resigned? I'm suggesting just some of the non-financial reasons that might appeal to voters in Scotland.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

No straw men in my arguments unless the two individuals I cited have resigned? I'm suggesting just some of the non-financial reasons that might appeal to voters in Scotland.

Sure - I don't doubt it. But that's no basis for empathy as a Brexiter.

And your comments about Dido and Cummings are gratuitous and purposeless.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Sure - I don't doubt it. But that's no basis for empathy as a Brexiter.

And your comments about Dido and Cummings are gratuitous and purposeless.

We'll have to agree to disagree on those two individuals, who were chosen for solid reasons.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's a trade-off.

Less money in the wallet for a number of years v not being governed by unelected bureaucrats like Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe and Dominic Cummings.

Just for a start, then, where's the money coming from to replace the Barnett formula, declining North Sea oil revenues, the cost of setting up all those new government departments, the contribution to NATO, the loss lf industry back to England? That's a lot of expense (and that isn't the half of it), and other than jfman's solution to tax the hell of of....someone... and tax breaks for business (so out of character for the SNP) I really do not see any light at the end of that tunnel for the Scots - in fact, the tunnel will get even darker.

Ordinary Scots will really pay the price for separation, and I dare say the English will get the blame for that as well!

I want to see Scotland remain in the UK because we are all stronger for it, but Scotland going it alone under an SNP government risks reducing them to third world status.