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Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.
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Old 18-03-2019, 13:02   #196
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I didn't say 'I know I'm right'! Thisis typical of how you respond to people who disagree with yo

My position on global warming is that I have an open mind, but I'm not yet convinced that:

1. The temperature records showing an upward trend have not been manipulated rather than 'adjusted' for appropriate reasons.

2. Any rise in temperature is caused by carbon emissions. I have already told you why I think that.

It would be better if you actually addressed the points that I'm making, rather than having a go. This is a discussion forum.
If you are not convinced then you must have assessed the evidence and judged it unreliable. So you should be able to present the scientific evidence and objective argument to support why there is *not* a pending climate change catastrophe i.e. why you are not accepting the overwhelming consensus. Citing a single clearly biased scientist does not cut it I am afraid.

You use phrases like:

Quote:
You really shouldn't be so gullible as to believe everything scientists come up with. They have been wrong so many times before.
These do not give an impression that you are "open minded" in this respect.
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Old 18-03-2019, 14:01   #197
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

I guess the questions for those who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change are;
  • Is the climate changing?
  • Does CO2 cause a 'greenhouse effect' in a closed system?
  • Is the amount of CO2 rising?
  • Is there a link between rising CO2 and rising global temperatures?
  • If no, what is causing the climate to change?
  • Is the rise in CO2 due to human factors?
  • If no, why is the level of atmospheric CO2 rising?

Due to the scientific method, you cannot say to 100% certainty that there is a specific cause to a certain effect. However, you can start to put percentage likelihoods that something will happen. Climate science is continuously trying to firm up those percentages but, as I said before, trying to model an entire planet is hard!
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Old 18-03-2019, 15:22   #198
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99 View Post
If you are not convinced then you must have assessed the evidence and judged it unreliable. So you should be able to present the scientific evidence and objective argument to support why there is *not* a pending climate change catastrophe i.e. why you are not accepting the overwhelming consensus. Citing a single clearly biased scientist does not cut it I am afraid.

You use phrases like:



These do not give an impression that you are "open minded" in this respect.
By 'open minded' I meant that I don't accept everything at face value. And what I said was that there is not a proven link between carbon emissions and warming because the atmosphere absorbs so little carbon.

Incidentally, the reason scientists are not trying to have an open debate about this is because they are shouted down and threatened.

Anyway, it is clear you are just sucking it all in so you won't want to consider anything which is contrary to the establishment view, so 'nuff said.

---------- Post added at 14:22 ---------- Previous post was at 14:21 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx View Post
I guess the questions for those who don't believe in anthropogenic climate change are;
  • Is the climate changing?
  • Does CO2 cause a 'greenhouse effect' in a closed system?
  • Is the amount of CO2 rising?
  • Is there a link between rising CO2 and rising global temperatures?
  • If no, what is causing the climate to change?
  • Is the rise in CO2 due to human factors?
  • If no, why is the level of atmospheric CO2 rising?

Due to the scientific method, you cannot say to 100% certainty that there is a specific cause to a certain effect. However, you can start to put percentage likelihoods that something will happen. Climate science is continuously trying to firm up those percentages but, as I said before, trying to model an entire planet is hard!
But the question you have omitted relates to the amount of carbon emissions the atmosphere absorbs.

I am more concerned with the impact of that on our oceans, which is where most of it goes.
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Old 18-03-2019, 15:38   #199
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Incidentally, the reason scientists are not trying to have an open debate about this is because they are shouted down and threatened.

Anyway, it is clear you are just sucking it all in so you won't want to consider anything which is contrary to the establishment view, so 'nuff said.
Conspiracy nonsense right down to the 'establishment' stuff. Same thing people spout when challenged on vaccines and 9/11 being an inside job. It would all be proven to be false if it wasn't for the establishment keeping them down man.
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Old 18-03-2019, 15:55   #200
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Well no, it remains the scientific consensus.
I meant that climate change activism resembles a belief system. Any that deny it are accused of heresy. You're a non-believer, an outcast, the peddler of evil words against the Righteous. If was centuries ago you'd be burnt at the stake.

I read about the cross-over a while back and have sought out the paper I read. Worth a read. Interesting reveal into the human creature if nothing else.

http://oro.open.ac.uk/46740/1/94_98_Bhagwat_3.pdf

Quote:
in people’s minds carbon emissions are equated to sin and reducing emissions a form of repentance.
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Old 18-03-2019, 16:10   #201
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
I meant that climate change activism resembles a belief system. Any that deny it are accused of heresy. You're a non-believer, an outcast, the peddler of evil words against the Righteous. If was centuries ago you'd be burnt at the stake.

I read about the cross-over a while back and have sought out the paper I read. Worth a read. Interesting reveal into the human creature if nothing else.

http://oro.open.ac.uk/46740/1/94_98_Bhagwat_3.pdf
I think ultimately you can make this argument about a lot of things of which there is a scientific consensus and some controversy over it. It's not uncommon to hear proportions of intelligent design describe evolution, they call it Darwinism, as a belief system too. I am sure there was some aspects of the way climate change activists act that share characterisations with those in a belief system but the underlying 'belief' is based on an overwhelming scientific consensus and not faith.

The comparison to intelligent design is quite apt really because they behave in the same way. There is a lot of talk, lots of attention, but little science behind it and when challenged on this they resort to accusations of a scientific establishment shutting them out. They also like to dress it up as an open discussion of ideas as if that's what decides what is true. Science isn't an open discussion of ideas in which open minded people challenge each other and all views are equally valid however much they wish it was.

In the end there isn't much reason not to believe The Royal Society and NASA know better than people who have little grounding in the subject.

Last edited by Damien; 18-03-2019 at 16:15.
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Old 18-03-2019, 17:41   #202
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
I think ultimately you can make this argument about a lot of things of which there is a scientific consensus and some controversy over it. It's not uncommon to hear proportions of intelligent design describe evolution, they call it Darwinism, as a belief system too. I am sure there was some aspects of the way climate change activists act that share characterisations with those in a belief system but the underlying 'belief' is based on an overwhelming scientific consensus and not faith.

The comparison to intelligent design is quite apt really because they behave in the same way. There is a lot of talk, lots of attention, but little science behind it and when challenged on this they resort to accusations of a scientific establishment shutting them out. They also like to dress it up as an open discussion of ideas as if that's what decides what is true. Science isn't an open discussion of ideas in which open minded people challenge each other and all views are equally valid however much they wish it was.

In the end there isn't much reason not to believe The Royal Society and NASA know better than people who have little grounding in the subject.
Very strange responses from you, Damien. I have already provided a scientific fact for you, which you have conveniently ignored. Instead of making it personal and shouting me down, why not answer the question I put? Which is that the amount of carbon absorbed into the atmosphere is within normal parameters, currently standing at 0.04%. So how can that be linked to warming?
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Old 18-03-2019, 17:46   #203
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post

[/COLOR]
But the question you have omitted relates to the amount of carbon emissions the atmosphere absorbs.

I am more concerned with the impact of that on our oceans, which is where most of it goes.
OK, you could reword my third question to ask;
  • Is the amount of atmospheric CO2 rising?

If that makes things tidier. Measuring CO2 absorbtion by the oceans is fairly straightforward by monitoring pH and inorganic carbonates. The difficulty comes in where there temperature changes along with the atmospheric CO2 levels
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Old 18-03-2019, 17:53   #204
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Very strange responses from you, Damien. I have already provided a scientific fact for you, which you have conveniently ignored. Instead of making it personal and shouting me down, why not answer the question I put? Which is that the amount of carbon absorbed into the atmosphere is within normal parameters, currently standing at 0.04%. So how can that be linked to warming?
Why do you need an answer from me? I am not a climatologist which is why I defer to expects in those fields. I don't believe I need to know everything about a subject to accept it's true.

I don't even know the source for carbon being within normal parameters. However I did look up why a small amount of carbon can impact temperatures: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...oxide-makes-u/
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Old 18-03-2019, 18:43   #205
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
I meant that climate change activism resembles a belief system. Any that deny it are accused of heresy. You're a non-believer, an outcast, the peddler of evil words against the Righteous. If was centuries ago you'd be burnt at the stake.

I read about the cross-over a while back and have sought out the paper I read. Worth a read. Interesting reveal into the human creature if nothing else.

http://oro.open.ac.uk/46740/1/94_98_Bhagwat_3.pdf
This paper explaining what actions are necessary to get more positive action on tackling Climate Change by grassroots action, not just depending on Governments policies.

Quote:
Conclusion

Climate change has become the most prominent environmental issue of the 21st century and it has galvanised public support for many other environmental issues including, but not limited to, agriculture and food security, biodiversity conservation, deforestation, desertification, land degradation, and poverty alleviation. However, when it comes to the intergovernmental agreements on legally binding targets for the reduction in carbon emissions, the political process has been disappointingly slow and frustrating. Our analysis of climate change as a belief system suggests that addressing climate change may require a shift of focus to a very different level and through the grassroots actors rather than political leaders. The interconnected and interdependent interac- tion between the actors we identify will mediate – quite independent of the political process – the spread of the idea of climate change in a fashion similar to the spread of religious beliefs. Although this may be particularly unsettling to the predominantly secular actors of climate change we argue that this mode of spread will help to influence public opinion and further action on climate change.
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Old 18-03-2019, 18:45   #206
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Why do you need an answer from me? I am not a climatologist which is why I defer to expects in those fields. I don't believe I need to know everything about a subject to accept it's true.

I don't even know the source for carbon being within normal parameters. However I did look up why a small amount of carbon can impact temperatures: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...oxide-makes-u/
I wasn't meaning to press you for an answer, Damien! I have not been able to find the answer to that question myself. My response was prompted by your comment that there was no scientific basis to the views climate sceptics hold. I gave you one example.

Nobody is arguing that carbon isn't a greenhouse gas. However, if carbon absorption levels have not changed significantly, so what?

If you don't know everything about a subject as you claim here, then all the more reason to listen to alternative arguments rather than dismiss them out of hand.

Until I read about the hockey stick graph deception, I also assumed also that the claims of these scientists were correct. Not any more.
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Old 18-03-2019, 18:49   #207
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I wasn't meaning to press you for an answer, Damien! I have not been able to find the answer to that question myself. My response was prompted by your comment that there was no scientific basis to the views climate sceptics hold. I gave you one example.

Nobody is arguing that carbon isn't a greenhouse gas. However, if carbon absorption levels have not changed significantly, so what?

If you don't know everything about a subject as you claim here, then all the more reason to listen to alternative arguments rather than dismiss them out of hand.

Until I read about the hockey stick graph deception, I also assumed also that the claims of these scientists were correct. Not any more.
https://www.newscientist.com/article...-proven-wrong/
Quote:
The hockey graph was first published in a 1999 paper (pdf) by Michael Mann and colleagues, which was an extension of a 1998 study in Nature. The graph was highlighted in the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Since 2001, there have been repeated claims that the reconstruction is at best seriously flawed and at worst a fraud, no more than an artefact of the statistical methods used to create it (see The great hockey stick debate).

Details of the claims and counterclaims involve lengthy and arcane statistical arguments, so let’s skip straight to the 2006 report of the US National Academy of Science (pdf). The academy was asked by Congress to assess the validity of temperature reconstructions, including the hockey stick.

“Array of evidence”
The report states: “The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on ice caps and the retreat of glaciers around the world”.

Most researchers would agree that while the original hockey stick can – and has – been improved in a number of ways, it was not far off the mark. Most later temperature reconstructions fall within the error bars of the original hockey stick. Some show far more variability leading up to the 20th century than the hockey stick, but none suggest that it has been warmer at any time in the past 1000 years than in the last part of the 20th century.


It is true that there are big uncertainties about the accuracy of all past temperature reconstructions, and that these uncertainties have sometimes been ignored or glossed over by those who have presented the hockey stick as evidence for global warming.

The problems
Climate scientists, however, are only too aware of the problems (see Climate myths: It was warmer during the Medieval period), and the uncertainties were both highlighted by Mann’s original paper and by others at the time it was published.

Update: as suggested by the academy in its 2006 report, Michael Mann and his colleagues have reconstructed northern hemisphere temperatures for the past 2000 years using a broader set of proxies than was available for the original study and updated measurements from the recent past.

The new reconstruction has been generated using two statistical methods, both different to that used in the original study. Like other temperature reconstructions done since 2001 (see graph), it shows greater variability than the original hockey stick. Yet again, though, the key conclusion is the same: it’s hotter now than it has been for at least 1000 years.


In fact, independent evidence, from ice cores and sea sediments for instance, suggest the last time the planet approached this degree of warmth was during the interglacial period preceding the last ice age over 100,000 years ago. It might even be hotter now than it has been for at least a million years.

Further back in the past, though, it certainly has been hotter – and the world has been a very different place. The crucial point is that our modern civilisation has been built on the basis of the prevailing climate and sea levels. As these change, it will cause major problems.
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Old 18-03-2019, 20:06   #208
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

Thank you for that, Hugh. The point I was making was that the original algorithm used would have produced a spike, whatever figures you put into the formula. It was either a deliberate manipulation or a crass mistake, but either way, it proves that no-one should stand back from questioning scientific conclusions. They are human to, and can deceive and they can make mistakes.
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Old 18-03-2019, 20:48   #209
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Thank you for that, Hugh. The point I was making was that the original algorithm used would have produced a spike, whatever figures you put into the formula. It was either a deliberate manipulation or a crass mistake, but either way, it proves that no-one should stand back from questioning scientific conclusions. They are human to, and can deceive and they can make mistakes.
I expect King Canute said much the same as the waters rose......
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Old 18-03-2019, 21:47   #210
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Re: Climate Change - record World temp. rises in Feb.

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This paper explaining what actions are necessary to get more positive action on tackling Climate Change by grassroots action, not just depending on Governments policies.
Are you trying to explain to me the paper that I posted and had already read and fully understood?
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