Coronavirus (OLD)

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is not appropriate to set an age limit. Some 75-year-olds are healthier than some 40-year-olds. This is age discrimination.

Restrictions should be recommended (not imposed) on those with underlying medical conditions that make the person susceptible to the coronavirus.

Everyone else should be going back to work.

Including you OB? Or are you happy for others take the risk on your behalf?

[jfman]

If everyone else should be going back to work, why do we have the furlough scheme?

[nomadking]

There's no simple answer to any of this. That is despite the many studies of the effect of school closures and the 151 page UK government summary report from May 2014. That report included references to 171 studies.


A key factor is, how well have people been behaving during the lockdown? If the chaining(passing from one person to another and so on) of infections has been properly broken, there should be fewer people out there infected. If people have been regularly meeting up with random people during a lockdown, then the potential is there to resurface when a lockdown is eased(eg South Korea).

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

There's no simple answer to any of this. That is despite the many studies of the effect of school closures and the 151 page UK government summary report from May 2014. That report included references to 171 studies.

A key factor is, how well have people been behaving during the lockdown? If the chaining(passing from one person to another and so on) of infections has been properly broken, there should be fewer people out there infected. If people have been regularly meeting up with random people during a lockdown, then the potential is there to resurface when a lockdown is eased(eg South Korea).

There is a simple answer. Until it’s safe to ease lockdown measures we should not be doing so. That depends on testing, tracing and isolating. Internationally recognised best practice we ignored in February with a complacent approach and similarly I see no evidence that we are well placed to do it now.

A second wave is inevitable now at massive human and economic cost.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is not appropriate to set an age limit. Some 75-year-olds are healthier than some 40-year-olds. This is age discrimination.

Restrictions should be recommended (not imposed) on those with underlying medical conditions that make the person susceptible to the coronavirus.

Everyone else should be going back to work.

It has been recommendations, not imposition. It has been important to not unnecessarily overwhelm the health system.

If you do not want to be shielded Shielding is for your personal protection. It’s your choice to decide whether to follow the measures we advise.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by daveeb

A stupid and reckless one at that, but they're still hiding behind the (lack of) science to justify it.

I don’t think it is stupid or reckless, I think it’s necessary.

We’re not going back to normal anytime soon, but we’ve got to start the direction of travel.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

There is a simple answer. Until it’s safe to ease lockdown measures we should not be doing so. That depends on testing, tracing and isolating. Internationally recognised best practice we ignored in February with a complacent approach and similarly I see no evidence that we are well placed to do it now.

A second wave is inevitable now at massive human and economic cost.

The Guvmin has already stated that the R level is rising.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I don’t think it is stupid or reckless, I think it’s necessary.

We’re not going back to normal anytime soon, but we’ve got to start the direction of travel.

You think it’s necessary based on fag packet understanding of economics. We aren’t going back to normal anytime soon, so what’s the rush and risk doing it badly?

---------- Post added at 20:38 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The Guvmin has already stated that the R level is rising.

And that won’t capture the idiocy of the VE Day street parties for a further week. While spread across the country, that’s a new Cheltenham or Athletico Madrid v Liverpool game right there.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

There is a simple answer. Until it’s safe to ease lockdown measures we should not be doing so. That depends on testing, tracing and isolating. Internationally recognised best practice we ignored in February with a complacent approach and similarly I see no evidence that we are well placed to do it now.

A second wave is inevitable now at massive human and economic cost.

That hasn't worked in South Korea. Which countries(apart from South Korea) allowed tracking of phone data? Tracing will not catch everybody as there are too many casual encounters(eg in the same shop).

Technically it will never be possible to end lockdown, as the very least there will always be another virus to come along.

Eg Spanish Flu outbreak in Connecticut, 3 cities didn't close schools and had fewer deaths, than in at least 2 cities that did close schools. But that shouldn't be used as a definitive answer because there are so many other factors involved.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

That hasn't worked in South Korea. Which countries(apart from South Korea) allowed tracking of phone data? Tracing will not catch everybody as there are too many casual encounters(in the same shop).

Technically it will never be possible to end lockdown, as the very least there will always be another virus to come along.


Eg Spanish Flu outbreak in Connecticut, 3 cities didn't close schools and had fewer deaths, than in at least 2 cities that did close schools. But that shouldn't be used as a definitive answer because there are so many other factors involved.

What do you mean it hasn’t worked? Tiny number of deaths, cases identified and isolated quickly. People going around their day to day lives in relative normality. They’ve held national elections in this time.

How do you define success? 30,000 deaths? A massacre in care homes? Genuinely I’d really like to know.

[daveeb]

You think it’s necessary based on fag packet understanding of economics. We aren’t going back to normal anytime soon, so what’s the rush and risk doing it badly?

---------- Post added at 20:38 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------



The not irritating at all Gavin Williamson politiciansplained that they're providing a "bubble" for the teachers with their good advice. Not sure if it's a bubble of alertness or maybe one of control but I hope it's better than the bubble of criminal incompetence they put in the care homes.

Originally Posted by jfman

At last an admission that “back to work” has no basis in medical science, risking a deadly second wave and is simply the Tories acting on a wing and a prayer hoping to revive the economy..

What party is in power is not exactly relevant.
A different government would be just as keen to revive the economy, or perhaps you would prefer they just werck it completely ?

Originally Posted by jfman

You think it’s necessary based on fag packet understanding of economics.

Once again with the insulting digs. Are you really that keen to take another rest ?

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

What do you mean it hasn’t worked? Tiny number of deaths, cases identified and isolated quickly. People going around their day to day lives in relative normality.

How do you define success? 30,000 deaths? A massacre in care homes? Genuinely I’d really like to know.

There has been an outbreak of cases in South Korea after the easing of lockdown.

61% of cases were tracked back to one person, and that was triggered by the doctor breaking the rules on criteria for testing. Now imagine if instead of just one person, it was 10 in the UK, that would've(ie has) resulted in MANY more cases even WITH testing and tracing. South Korea had at LEAST 61% of their cases BEFORE testing and tracing could have any impact.

How would you have gone about tracing people when just look at the fuss over the proposed app.
South Korea

This includes enforcing a law that grants the government wide authority to access data: CCTV footage, GPS tracking data from phones and cars, credit card transactions, immigration entry information, and other personal details of people confirmed to have an infectious disease. The authorities can then make some of this public, so anyone who may have been exposed can get themselves - or their friends and family members - tested.

To add to the burden, hospitals in Italy depend on medical personnel to try to trace the contacts that people who test positive have had with others. One doctor in Bologna, who asked not to be named, said he had spent a 12-hour day tracing people who had been in contact with just one positive patient, to ensure those who next need testing are found.
“You can do that if the number of cases remains two to three,” the doctor said. “But if they grow, something has to give. The system will implode if we continue to test everyone actively and then have to do all this.”

“Patient 31,” as she became known, was a member of a secretive church which Deputy Minister for Health and Welfare Kim Gang-lip said has since linked to 61% of cases. Infections spread beyond the congregation after the funeral of a relative of the church’s founder was held at a nearby hospital, and there were several other smaller clusters around the country.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

There has been an outbreak of cases in South Korea after the easing of lockdown.

And they found it. That’s success.

With open international borders this will become a necessity for all countries if we want “normal”. Otherwise it’s “oh, you’ve came from the UK wait there while I check my chart? Second highest death count in the world? 14 days in the cell thanks”.

61% of cases were tracked back to one person, and that was triggered by the doctor breaking the rules on criteria for testing. Now imagine if instead of just one person, it was 10 in the UK, that would've(ie has) resulted in MANY more cases even WITH testing and tracing. South Korea had at LEAST 61% of their cases BEFORE testing and tracing could have any impact.

61% of cases occurred before testing and tracing had any impact simply because of the success they had using such methods. Had they not been successful it’d have been much worse.

How would you have gone about tracing people when just look at the fuss over the proposed app.
South Korea

Tell them it’ll be good for the economy. If they’re willing to make human sacrifice of teachers then I’m sure installing an app is neither here nor there. The data collected is considered intrusive, however so is significant restrictions on movement, restrictions on activities, closed pubs, bars, cinemas.

Unfortunately until the UK recognises international best practice for dealing with pandemics and implements it properly then we are in various states of lockdown and economic recession for some time to come. I’m not sure who gains from ignoring this self evident reality.

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:12 ----------

Originally Posted by Paul

What party is in power is not exactly relevant.
A different government would be just as keen to revive the economy, or perhaps you would prefer they just werck it completely ?

I’ll refer to “the Government” then instead of the Tories. I’ve no preference to see the economy wrecked, however it’s a flawed understanding to assume that easing restrictions quickly automatically leads to (or speeds up) recovery.

Sweden is going into recession without a lockdown.

The economic outcome and health outcome are now intertwined. Significant easing of restrictions without adequate testing and contact tracing leaves us heading to an Italy (or a repeat of UK wave 1) type situation within 4-6 weeks of easing restrictions, a further complete lockdown and further economic chaos.

And no, I’m not keen on that rest.

Originally Posted by Taf

Schools open. Kids go back to school. Parents go back to work. Stocks of supplies rebuilt ready for the next wave. School close. Kids stay home. Parents stay home. Stocks diminish. And repeat....

---------- Post added at 22:39 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-chief-...ning-guidance/

Why am I not surprised? I just wish this government would be more honest. This going back to school can be gussied up to be concerns for vulnerable and poorer ability children but it's just a desire to use teachers and nursery staff as childminders so as to get the country back to work. Just be honest Boris..