Changes on the High Street

[heero_yuy]

Quote from this is money:

A fifth of high street stores plan to stay closed permanently after the coronavirus lockdown unwinds, retail leaders have told MPs.

Andrew Goodacre, chief executive of the British Independent Retailers Association, told the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Select Committee it has been the “worst time ever for retail” after the pandemic hit the UK.

He said 20% of retailers surveyed by the trade body claimed they do not intend to reopen after the lockdown.

Mr Goodacre added: “For those even saying they would look to reopen, there is a huge caveat about the level of trade on whether they would continue to reopen.

“If the footfall is impacted and social distancing exists and they find it hard to meet needs of customers and workers, it would be more expensive to reopen than to stay closed.”

Grim prediction indeed.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Grim prediction indeed.

To be blunt, it was always on the cards due to the huge rise in online shopping and major distribution outlets like Amazon.

This current situation has simply sped up the process, technological and engineering advancements have always had an impact on the way we do things.

Give it another 20 years and everyone might be getting all their nutritional and medicinal requirements from tubes of 'gloop' . . . and wearing clothes made from a new material containing microbes that absorb CO2 and turn it into Carbon & Oxygen

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Carth

To be blunt, it was always on the cards due to the huge rise in online shopping and major distribution outlets like Amazon.

This current situation has simply sped up the process, technological and engineering advancements have always had an impact on the way we do things.

Give it another 20 years and everyone might be getting all their nutritional and medicinal requirements from tubes of 'gloop' . . . and wearing clothes made from a new material containing microbes that absorb CO2 and turn it into Carbon & Oxygen

Exactly as this was just the final straw that broke the camels back.

[tweetiepooh]

Shops have to value add to survive. They need to keep prices competitive (come on-line the shipping costs can outweigh price benefit) but the real plus is service.

I want to try on clothes and especially shoes before I buy maybe excepting Tshirts, coats and looser items but return costs can be high.

In archery shops often have indoor ranges so you can try out equipment, get advice so you get the right stuff, get stuff tuned and setup. It's part of the service and prices maybe a little higher to account for it.

Maybe we will get back to smaller, local, specialist shopping. I'd love to have butchers, grocers, cheesemongers etc back but supermarkets seem to be some of the better survivors.

[Carth]

I like to 'see, feel, try' things before I purchase them, and am therefore not a lover of online shopping.

The wife & daughter are enthralled by it though . . . even though they probably return half of what they order.

Isn't progress wonderful

[denphone]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Shops have to value add to survive. They need to keep prices competitive (come on-line the shipping costs can outweigh price benefit) but the real plus is service.

I want to try on clothes and especially shoes before I buy maybe excepting Tshirts, coats and looser items but return costs can be high.

In archery shops often have indoor ranges so you can try out equipment, get advice so you get the right stuff, get stuff tuned and setup. It's part of the service and prices maybe a little higher to account for it.

Maybe we will get back to smaller, local, specialist shopping. I'd love to have butchers, grocers, cheesemongers etc back but supermarkets seem to be some of the better survivors.

Yes l certainly remember all those type of specialist shops like quite a few members l suspect as well when l was a nipper.

My parents used to send me down there several times a week with a list and strict orders.

[Sephiroth]

In Reading, John Lewis is on the High Street. M&S is on the High Street. O2 is on the high street.

Debenhams (screwed), House of Fraser (screwed) are the anchors for the Oracle Mall (screwed). Vodafone is in the Oracle (not yet screwed).

Did JoHn Lewis & M&S take a canny decision back in 1988?

Im no expert on John Lewis but I can tell you they took a similar decision in Glasgow and opted to be the prime tenant of the Buchanan Galleries development which is a city centre mall, ignoring the nearby, out-of-town development at Braehead. Both developments opened in 1999.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

Im no expert on John Lewis but I can tell you they took a similar decision in Glasgow and opted to be the prime tenant of the Buchanan Galleries development which is a city centre mall, ignoring the nearby, out-of-town development at Braehead. Both developments opened in 1999.

I think the Reading case is slightly different in that the high street accommodates both the Oracle Mall and shops in the street itself.
JL and M&S stayed put rather than go into the shiny new Mall (which is very popular).

Meanwhile in Watford they opted to move in to the Harlequin Centre when it opened in 1990 (now known as Intu Watford). This centre is adjacent to the High Street. They opted to keep the store’s traditional name (Trewins) although that has since changed. In Liverpool, they moved down to the new Liverpool One development in 2008 which has effectively moved the high street’s centre of gravity closer to Albert Dock. John Lewis is on a prime site right at the bottom of the development, which almost puts it outside what you would call the “high street” in Liverpool, but where it is located it is right in the way of everyone who walks between Albert Dock and the shops.

If anything can be inferred from this it’s that they’re not averse to sitting inside a mall development but where they do so they still prefer to be close to city/town centre footfall rather than next to a big out-of-town car park.

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Sun:

Bella Italia and Cafe Rouge are on the verge of collapse putting 6,000 jobs at risk.

The owner of both chains, Casual Dining Group, has filed a notice to appoint administrators at the High Court.

The company said it will give the chain 10 days breathing space to consider "all options" for restructuring.

A spokesperson for the chain said: "These notifications are a prudent measure in light of the company's position and the wider situation.

"These notifications will also protect the company from any threatened potential legal action from landlords while we review the detail of the Government advice, and formulate a plan for the company in these difficult times."

The group's 250 restaurants, which also includes Las Iguanas, have remained closed for the past two months due to lockdown orders even though they're allowed to operate a takeaway service.

It's unlikely that a restaurant could survive on take-aways only.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

It's unlikely that a restaurant could survive on take-aways only.

Those companies are also private equity-owned. So they have limited wriggle room due to having to pay a high level of debt off, and are not entitled to government support.

[Sephiroth]

It's one big mess, isn't it?

Nearly all of this funnels up to landlords who are now under the biggest cosh of modern times. At the end of this, their real estate will only be worth a fraction of what they were worth last year.

This funnels further up to those who lent money to the to develop the shopping centres and office buildings. Those lenders are in serious danger of not getting their money back.

Then it funnels across to construction companies who will nbeed to find HS2 type projects pretty quickly if any of them are to survive.

Finally, the Guvmin/Local Guvmins will suffer a serious dip in revenues from corporate taxes, business rates and VAT.

Don't you think that the above is just the tip of the iceberg?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

It's one big mess, isn't it?

Nearly all of this funnels up to landlords who are now under the biggest cosh of modern times. At the end of this, their real estate will only be worth a fraction of what they were worth last year.

This funnels further up to those who lent money to the to develop the shopping centres and office buildings. Those lenders are in serious danger of not getting their money back.

Then it funnels across to construction companies who will nbeed to find HS2 type projects pretty quickly if any of them are to survive.

Finally, the Guvmin/Local Guvmins will suffer a serious dip in revenues from corporate taxes, business rates and VAT.

Don't you think that the above is just the tip of the iceberg?

The wise investors rebalanced into other real estate four plus years ago into warehousing and offices.
The asset class which people are thinking about now is offices. Wil less or more be needed in the short and medium terms?

[OLD BOY]

There is a major change in the way we do things happening right now. The coronavirus emergency measures have expedited this process as people have embraced working at home and online shopping.

What will replace the offices and shops is the big debate. I think shopping centres will be replaced by leisure facilities, more estate agents, travel shops and fast food outlets, restaurants, bars, craft places, tech showcase and retail shops, mobile phone shops and gift shops. Bakeries, butchers, sweet shops, etc may make a comeback on the high street. The bigger supermarkets will continue to gravitate to out-of town facilities, leaving the smaller 'express' services in town centres and in housing estates.

As for those office blocks - I guess that really does depend on whether company bosses want to revert back to their previous way of working. They must see that they can reduce their overheads if working from home became the norm.

What the emergency measures have drawn attention to are the possibilities for the future. The question really is, do people like what they see?