Brexit (Old)

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?

I'm not into clairvoyancy but if Parliament reject the deal then we leave the EU with no deal. No ifs or buts, we leave.

That is also dependant on the rest of the EU accepting the deal.

It matters not what Parliament vote if the EU does not agree to the deal.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

So, what will happen in the next two months? Will Theresa May get a deal past Parliament (despite the maths) or will the Government fall to a General Election? Who will our Prime Minister be on 1/1/19? Will one of the initials be a J?

That's one for Old Boy!

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by pip08456

I'm not into clairvoyancy but if Parliament reject the deal then we leave the EU with no deal. No ifs or buts, we leave.

That is also dependant on the rest of the EU accepting the deal.

It matters not what Parliament vote if the EU does not agree to the deal.

Agreed, there is no “go back and get a better deal”.

If we fail to agree on the deal and/ or the EU reject the deal.

We leave with no deal, and have to negotiate an FTA or something .....PDQ.

It has to be done quick, we need to submit our offer to the EU and then they need to submit their counter offer, then we’ll know how far apart we are.

[1andrew1]

Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed.
3) Call an election.
4) Call a referendum.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.To who? Parliament or the EU?
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed. Is that even on the table?
3) Call an election. How will that change anything?
4) Call a referendum. Not enough time to change anything and has already been ruled out.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

Perhaps your beloved FT should read Article 50.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Some scenarios from the FT if Parliament says no:
1) Resubmit the same plan.
2) Stay in EEA until a new trade deal with the EU is agreed.
3) Call an election.
4) Call a referendum.
https://www.ft.com/content/23dc17d8-...2-17176fbf93f5

Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that if Parliament rejects the deal, then there is no deal. It really is as simple as that.

There will not be an election and there will not be a second referendum.

On that basis, I should think Parliament will vote for the deal as most MPs do not want to fall back on WTO rules. For many, it will be Hobson's choice, which is why I am confident that the Parliament will vote for the Chequers deal.

Whether the British public will be happy with that is a different question.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That's one for Old Boy!

Glad to oblige, Seph, and TM will still be PM on 1/1/19!

[Angua]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that if Parliament rejects the deal, then there is no deal. It really is as simple as that.

There will not be an election and there will not be a second referendum.

On that basis, I should think Parliament will vote for the deal as most MPs do not want to fall back on WTO rules. For many, it will be Hobson's choice, which is why I am confident that the Parliament will vote for the Chequers deal.

Whether the British public will be happy with that is a different question.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 ----------



Glad to oblige, Seph, and TM will still be PM on 1/1/19!

Parliament can vote for whatever it chooses, but Barnier has already said the Chequers deal is not acceptable.

A deal that both sides can work with needs to be possible before any parliamentary approval can be sought.

[Hom3r]

Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it

Vince Cable is not the bloke to grab it.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Mr K

I like Vincent, top bloke ! There' s a chasm at the centre of British politics waiting for someone to grab. Brexit is going to destroy the Tories, almost, but not quite worth it

Sadly, Cable's mantra that "Brexit must be stopped" kicks democracy in the teeth. Brexit must be delivered, not stopped. An even greater shame that the guvmin's approach to this has so far been an utter Horlicks.

[OLD BOY]

1

Originally Posted by Angua

Parliament can vote for whatever it chooses, but Barnier has already said the Chequers deal is not acceptable.

A deal that both sides can work with needs to be possible before any parliamentary approval can be sought.

So why is Barnier currently working on Britain's ideas for the Northern Irish border?

Many hurtful things are said in the course of negotiations - look at the recent UKTV exchanges.

Barnier's outbursts are designed for effect and to try to influence outcomes by unnerving the opposition.

We will get there in the end.

---------- Post added at 19:14 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Vince cable is an old fool who should be stripped of his knighthood.

Brexit cannot and will not be stopped

Vince is all right, but he's certainly out of step with his fellows of the older generation. Most have become wise with age prior to senility.

---------- Post added at 19:16 ---------- Previous post was at 19:14 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Sadly, Cable's mantra that "Brexit must be stopped" kicks democracy in the teeth. Brexit must be delivered, not stopped. An even greater shame that the guvmin's approach to this has so far been an utter Horlicks.

Don't worry, Seph. Brexit will be delivered, and within six months we will all know that this is the case, despite all the rhetoric.

It may seem a bit of a Horlicks at the moment, but it won't when everything is signed, sealed, delivered and properly explained.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Brexit is going to destroy the Tories

Brexit has the potential to destroy all the main parties. There is no “Brexit party”, nobody comes out of this looking good.

None of the three main parties wanted Brexit. The Tories find themselves in government and therefore have to try and deliver it.

Labour have to challenge the Govt but then can’t be seen to be frustrating no the process and therefore just look stupid with no ideas, no sensible alternative. “ jobs first Brexit” what does that mean? Stay in “a” not “the” customs union, what does that mean? “Retain the benefits of the single market” ????? They say they will “will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option ” yet Thornberry stated Labour would vote against “any” deal.......thereby triggering a no deal.

LibDems just flat outright don’t accept the result of the referendum.

If Brexit doesn’t happen it will make the tuition fees issue look like a minor spat. UKIP would rise again and Farage would return like a vulture circling the cadavers of the main political parties.

If we get a half in /half out Brexit, still subservient to the ECJ and the 4F’s, the Tories would suffer internally, there will be a leader change potentially a GE, UKIP would gain support. LibDem’s would lose any traction they had. Labour would just blindly object to anything like they always do.

If we get a no deal Brexit, TM may walk leading to a Leadership change, I wouldn’t expect a GE immediately. UKIP would be totally finished, LibDems would have to run on a ticket of rejoining the EU, guaranteeing that they are distant 4th in any future election. Labour just complain, and try to say how they would have got a deal had they been in power forgetting that it was them that voted against any deal.

[1andrew1]

Some good analysis, Pierre, but would Farage bounce back and be credible? I'm dubious.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Brexit has the potential to destroy all the main parties. There is no “Brexit party”, nobody comes out of this looking good.

None of the three main parties wanted Brexit. The Tories find themselves in government and therefore have to try and deliver it.

Labour have to challenge the Govt but then can’t be seen to be frustrating no the process and therefore just look stupid with no ideas, no sensible alternative. “ jobs first Brexit” what does that mean? Stay in “a” not “the” customs union, what does that mean? “Retain the benefits of the single market” ????? They say they will “will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option ” yet Thornberry stated Labour would vote against “any” deal.......thereby triggering a no deal.

LibDems just flat outright don’t accept the result of the referendum.

If Brexit doesn’t happen it will make the tuition fees issue look like a minor spat. UKIP would rise again and Farage would return like a vulture circling the cadavers of the main political parties.

If we get a half in /half out Brexit, still subservient to the ECJ and the 4F’s, the Tories would suffer internally, there will be a leader change potentially a GE, UKIP would gain support. LibDem’s would lose any traction they had. Labour would just blindly object to anything like they always do.

If we get a no deal Brexit, TM may walk leading to a Leadership change, I wouldn’t expect a GE immediately. UKIP would be totally finished, LibDems would have to run on a ticket of rejoining the EU, guaranteeing that they are distant 4th in any future election. Labour just complain, and try to say how they would have got a deal had they been in power forgetting that it was them that voted against any deal.

We will not get a half in, half out Brexit, though, will we? We will be pulling out of the EU, single market and customs union and although some might not like the common rulebook idea, that will only apply to a relatively small amount of our trade, and we are relatively happy with those rules.

However, services are not affected, and as that is the bulk of our business, we will benefit from making all those rules ourselves. If the rest doesn't work out, we can change those arrangements at our own leisure at a future date.

As for Barnier, he is in negotiating mood, so you can take his public pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

Remember that both sides in the negotiation actually do want a deal. All this smoke and mirrors is designed both to unsettle the British and get plaudits for him when he announces the deal at the 11th ho